Now . . . big Live from the WTC kudoes will go out to the first reader who notes and instance of a journalist or academic making reference to, without irony, Bellesiles work "proving" that early Americans didn't have a lot of guns.
Update Reader Dave F. emails this link, from the Violence Policy Center. It'll be interesting to watch if they change this, now that the work has been about as thoroughly discredited as is possible without an extended John Edwards session with the Founding Fathers, but we're looking for works that are
a) Unironic: the writer is unaware that Bellesiles has been discredited. b) Written after Emory's findings.
Although if you'll keep emailing me links that show people who are knowingly continuing to use a tainted source -- as we must assume that the VPC, which has been heavily involved in this case, is. Or at least, we can so assume if they continue using it, as they've hardly had time to find every link to him on their site yet. Anyway, if you keep sending me the links, I'll put them up. I think it's worthwhile to expose these things. I also think it would be worthwhile, at this juncture, to write the Nation and let them know that you expect them to notify their readers that a non-partisan group of highly respected historians has given Bellesiles the thumbs-down.
I hate to bring it up, but it's interesting, and several readers have emailed about it. Remember a couple of weeks ago when Slate had an article claiming that the stock market liked Democratic presidents? Which was cute, because the article achieved this miraculous effect by carefully choosing it's time period: 1947 on. If you'd chosen something more obvious, like say, the 20th century, you'd find that the stock market absolutely hated Democratic presidents, since it enjoyed all but one of its worst years under FDR. Or if you'd knocked out the most glaring bubble portions of the Clinton years, where it's obvious the stock market wasn't doing us any favors by rising so precipitously, you'd reverse the effect. Which is not to say that this is correct either. The data is extremely thin, and there's generally too many things going on to isolate the effect of the executive. Was Nixon a better president for the economy than Carter? Worse? Everything was so awful in the 70's, it's sort of like trying to answer that age old favorite: burn to death or freeze to death?
[The answer, by the way, is freeze. Sure, it takes longer, but at the end you get nice and sleepy and deliciously warm, as anyone who's ever had hypothermia will tell you. Overall, not a bad way to go. Burning, on the other hand. . . not so nice. But I digress.]
The article wasn't any sillier than any other sort of spurious correlation journalists pick up on to fill the barren expanse of column inches their editor demands. But it was hardly the compelling economic evidence that some lefty bloggers decided it was.
However, over very short time periods, it's much easier to both establish correlation, and do something akin to a natural economic experiment. Which is why what happened in the stock market yesterday is so interesting: as soon as word came across the wire that Paul Wellstone had died, the market turned around and started going up. It's hard to avoid the conclusion that traders were trading on the now-suddenly-higher probability of getting a Republican Senate. It wasn't Wellstone in particular; it could have been any Democrat up for re-election. But the traders clearly think that a Republican Senate will be good news for them. The timing is just too close for it to be anything else, particularly as there was no other news I'm aware of in the market.
Now, that isn't necessarily good news for us. They might have decided that they were going to get less crackdown on corporate thieves, which is not, on net, a good thing. They might have decided that this meant we were going to invade Iraq, subdue the Middle East, and begin shipping booty, women, and slaves back for the kings of Wall Street to feast on. We don't really know what it is they preferred about a Republican Senate. Hell, if my experience with traders is any guide, they probably don't know what they prefer about a Republican Senate.
But at the very least, this should teach people to stop taking every puff piece as a sterling vindication of their deeply held convictions.
So Michael Bellesiles has resigned, and it's hard to read the findings of the investigating committee without feeling a wave of compassion. If you've ever read academic reviews, this finding is the professorial equivalent of running around the quad shrieking "He's a big, fat liar!"
This was the right result. The review process worked, although obviously much, much less quickly than it should have -- the finding goes out of it's way to spank the journal where Bellesiles work on guns was first published, asking why no editor had thought to ask that Bellesiles supply the basic information needed to understand his tables. This is the professorial equivalent of giving them the fish eye and saying, "So, you guys just publish anything any idiot hands you? Or aren't you bright enough to read the little numbers in the boxes?"
It's instructive, though, that it took too much publicity to get the right result. Happy as we are that the integrity of the profession of history has been upheld, it's troubling that absent publicity, it probably would have taken 20 years or more for the record to be set straight. During that time, Bellesiles' work would have been incorporated into court cases, public policy, and the minds of millions of people . . . damage that would probably continue long after professional historians knew the work to be false. This tendency is apparent in almost every profession, particularly cloistered ones like academia, medicine, and police work, where practicioners tend to feel that it is "us" against "them", and when one of our own screws up, it's better to circle the wagons and protect him than risk one of "them" finding out that we aren't perfect. This should be a wake-up call to academics everywhere -- but of course, it won't be.
It's also instructive that Bellesiles thought he could get away with it. A friend has a theory that Bellesiles, like the guy at Bell Labs, wasn't in it for self-aggrandizement, exactly, but is just a compulsive liar. He got such a high from putting one over that he simply couldn't stop, even though the longer he went on, the more likely it was that he would be discovered. Another friend, an academic, thinks it more probable that Bellesiles really believed that he could get away with it. And of course if he had, the rewards were astronomical. Being the TV historian for gun issues . . . the lecture circuit. . . the prestigious prizes . . . [here I interject the opinion of an anonymous emailer, a graduate student in history, that the most embarassing thing about all of this is the famous historians trying to save face by claiming that the book was a towering work that would have gotten the Bancroft even without the probate records, indeed even had the subject not been so controversial: "the rest of the book, at least the parts that aren't misrepresented, is a trivial recount of explosive new facts that have been well known to professional historians for a hundred years"] . . . and indeed, it's hard to ignore the fact that Bellesiles became very famous for contradicting commonly accepted views of historical gun rights, even before his data was challenged. It seems likely that he picked his topic with that end in mind -- it's hard to imagine the New York Times devoting that much space to a shattering new interpretation of, say, early 19th century tariff laws.
So one can say he tried to lie his way to fame and fortune, and got a much-deserved comeuppance. And yet, I feel sorry for him. Just as I feel sorry for Monica Lewinsky and everyone else who sought fame and fortune, and found it in very public humiliation. We've all had the feeling, I imagine, of not being quite able to make it. We've all been tempted to push the envelope, go out on a limb, do something maybe not quite right just to put ourselves over the top. Thank God we didn't. We found a job or a field where we were more qualified, or we learned to compensate, or we accepted that we weren't ever going to win the Nobel Prize. But is it really so hard to imagine yourself taking that first step -- making up a couple entries in a table, maybe, to make your case look a little better? And when no one caught it, to make up a little more, so your case was really dazzling? And when people responded by showering you with praise for your results, is it hard to imagine how intense the pressure must have been to keep serving them up? People on HNN have been jumping all over a history professor for suggesting that this is a tragedy for Bellesiles -- that the peer review system served him as badly as it served us -- but really, couldn't we have saved ourselves a lot of grief by catching this the first time? Bellesiles might have been spanked and sent back to do better research, instead of rewarded in a way that demanded he produce ever more outlandish results. And how hard is it to imagine the hell he has been living in over the past few years, desperately lying to cover his previous lies, breathing a little easier as the questions receded for a time. . . but then the noose inevitably closing in? He didn't behave well, and he doesn't deserve mercy. But when we see a man destroy himself by inches, I hope we can muster up some compassion. His life is effectively over. He will never work again in his chosen field. He will never publish again. He stands revealed to everyone whose opinion ever mattered to him as a liar and a fraud. Frankly, I find it hard to imagine what he will do, since professors rarely have a lot of money, and their skills are somewhat rarified. Most of the professors I've worked for couldn't even type or file well enough to work in an office.
We shouldn't gloat, and we shouldn't say that Clayton Cramer and James Lindgren "won". It wasn't a contest. I think Volokh is right: they deserve our thanks for helping to set the record straight, not our congratulations.
UpdateErin O'Connor makes an important point about the general condition of research in academia. As Instapundit points out, peer review is good for picking out problems with methodology -- but true frauds just fake the data. Hard science does a lot better at this -- generate interesting results, and you'll be deluged with requests to see the data so that other scientists can replicate it. It's time for the humanities to adopt the same standards, giving points for replicating results as well as generating them.
I also don't find it particularly likely, as some have accused, that Bellesiles was out to destroy the gun rights movement. He certainly wasn't fazed by the idea that his work would do them harm; indeed, it may have tickled him. But I don't think he would risk spiking his career this way for a political conviction he didn't seem to hold that strongly. I think he did it to get famous, not to advance his political agenda. Obviously, the better way to get famous was to pick something controversial, and I'll even venture to add, take the liberal side so the New York Times will give you good press. But it's a little extreme to think that he did this just to get the NRA.
And the conspiracy theories are already flying. On the left, I've already had two emailers suggest that this is a plot by my "best buddy, Shrub, the presidant-select" [sic] to. . . well, that part isn't very clear. Rid the world of dangled participles, perhaps. From the right comes a slightly more plausible correspondent who points out that the Democratic Party is probably better off trying a Jean Carnahan than trying to get Wellstone re-elected; in a year, when the passions have cooled, the Dem goes back in a walk. But while I am hesitant to state that there is no depth to which the leadership of either party would sink in order to get re-elected, I find it rather hard to believe that Tom Daschle and company have been scurrying about the country arranging for planes to crash in remote areas of Minnesota. To those on the right who do not put that much faith in the goodwill of the Democratic leadership, let me point out that this would take far more organization and planning than anyone in the party has heretofore displayed this election cycle.
Now, I like a good conspiracy theory as much as anyone. But there are times when you've just got to crunch a little extra tinfoil into your hat and accept that sometimes people die just because, hey, that's the way we're designed. That's why they call us mortals.
Update I've been chastised for calling the right-wing conspiracy theory more plausible. Let me make it clear that I meant that it was more plausible in the sense that I think this helps, rather than hurts, the Dems chances of holding the senate -- NOT in the sense that I think that Tom Daschle is more likely to have ordered Wellstone killed than, say, George Bush.
So the reason McCall is making such a poor showing here, apparently, is that he's out of money; spent it all on the primaries against Andrew Cuomo, the never-never candidate who, as you may recall, managed to drop out of the race after costing McCall the maximal amount of money. Democratic sources in the now say there's now a better than 50% chance that he'll finish behind Golisano, which means that the Independence Party will precede the Democratic on the ballot for the next four years. I won't venture a guess as to whether or not New York voters are so stupid that this will actually make a difference in the party's standings here.
Now the Democratic Party is telling the campaign they won't help him unless he gets his numbers up, which is idiotic, because he's had no money for media, running against two candidates that are saturating the airwaves. It's probably too late, but if Democratic readers want to put a little money in, or lean on the party to do so, it would help avoiding a seriously embarassing incident. It's going to be a nice black eye if one of the most reliably Democratic regions in the country drops the Democrats below the party of Ross Perot. Full disclosure: McCall isn't going to win. But hey, at least the Democrats could hold their head up in the state.
Well, Blogger was out, because it was hacked, but it seems to be back up now.
For fellow amateur pundits who use Blogger, this means that you should change your password immediately, even though it’s improbable they scooped it. At minimum, you should change your passwords for your ISP, and any obviously related services, such as Yahoo or Hotmail, for which you use the one password you’ve managed to remember.
[Don’t shine me on. I used to work in IT. I know you use the same password for everything. Time for a change. And not the kind of change where you add a number or letter to the old password, ‘kay?]
We apologize for the inconvenience. We now return you to your regularly scheduled blog.
Paul Wellstone and his wife and daughter have been killed in a plane crash. I didn’t agree with his politics, but I admired his conviction and integrity.This is a terrible tragedy.
Interesting. . . seems Books Online is segregating books that have been pulled from public domain in the US due to the recent copyright extension. Of course, if you are in the United States, where such works are still protected, you shouldn't look. No, not even if you cover one eye.
The guys on the news are saying that Muhammed shot "expert" in the military. For non-military readers, I think the way it works is that everyone who goes through basic training has to qualify on a rifle range as able to shoot the darn thing without taking their foot off or hitting a bystander. There are a number of levels at which you can qualify. . . some dim memory is telling me that among the levels are "marksman", "expert", "high expert" and "sharpshooter", in approximately that order, but I can neither guarantee that that list is exhaustive, nor that it is correct and in the right order. At any rate, I seem to remember that qualifying as an expert is not any particular feat; the media is making it sound as if it's just a short step from there to being a sniper. Can someone from the military comment?
Spoke too soon -- looks to me like a couple of nutjobs, one of whom possibly wanted to create his own private Al Qaeda. But I'm not going to bet on whether this is true or not, because sure as shooting, as soon as I come out in favor of the lone nut theory, it'll turn out that this Muhammed character is the bastard stepchild of Osama Bin Laden and Yasser Arafat.
I have to go down to Washington next Thursday. Washingtonians, if I have to be at 2400 E Street NW at 7 AM, where's the best area to stay the night before?
Northwest Washington Foggy Bottom/Georgetown Dupont Circle/Embassy Row Airport Arlington
I'll have a car, (though I don't know if I can park it where I'm going). Deeply appreciate any input.
I don't know what's going on, but I assume it's terrorism. They wouldn't be looking for people in Washington and Alabama unless they had some pretty good evidence (or so I devoutly hope), and I don't see how they could be searching areas that dispersed unless there's some kind of group involved, which makes it terrorism. IF it's terrorism, I find it unlikely to be our domestics -- this isn't their kind of nuttiness. But who knows? Maybe they're trying to get Hale-Bopp back or something.
Boy, oh boy, I can't wait until the whole story comes out.
Someone else is suing the airlines for making them sit next to someone who took up more space than they paid for. And this time it's in England, where you can't blame it on our crazy liability system.
For those arguing that national health care wouldn't cut research spending, there's this from Derek Lowe, who is a pharmaceutical research chemist:
I well recall that pharmaceutical brown-out known as the Clinton Health Care Plan. Everyone just stopped hiring scientists - raked the resumes into the trash can and spent the interview budget on something else. It wasn't a great time to be a fresh PhD or post-doc, that's for sure. Not that it was a picnic being employed, because some companies seemed to take the opportunity to make unpopular moves. And why not? If you didn't like it, where else could you go?
I'm sure some commenters are even now warming up their fingers to point out that he works for a pharmaceutical company. Well, yes, he works in research. I doubt he much cares whether they cut their advertising budget; what he wants is for there to be lots of jobs researching drugs. And he doesn't think there will be if there's national health-care -- and apparently, neither did the pharmaceutical companies, who, I dare point out, probably know better than you do. And when they thought the health care system was going to be nationalized, what did they do? Slash advertising? Nope, research.
Outstanding: Mindles Dreck has some suggestions for real reform of the way we regulate disclosure, not just handing the SEC more money and eliminating the expensing of stock options. And so I've decided to make a list of my own: reasons why just increasing the budget of the SEC will not magically make companies honest.
1) Regulatory Capture (follow the link -- one of the most outstanding "explanation" posts of all time) The SEC, like every other regulatory agency in history, eventually comes to serve the interests of the industry it regulates rather than the public at large.
2) The investment banks and their law firms have more money than the SEC The main enforcement guys at the SEC are lawyers. I don't know how much they make, but it's some embarassing sum lower than 40K a year. How much lawyer do you think you could buy for 40K per annum? Yup, the market works. And that means that the lawyers thinking up ways to evade the regulations are going to be, on average, smarter, more driven, and working longer hours, than the lawyers trying to enforce them.
Raise their salaries to the level of other government lawyers, you say. 70K? Starting salaries for freshly minted JD's at white shoe law firms are in the $125-$150K range. You going to pay the SEC lawyers that much? Honey, that's what the director of a government agency makes, not his enforcement staff. Meanwhile, the gap between what experienced lawyers in the public and private sector make is even more stark. And the same dichotomy holds true for accountants. You can make more setting up shop as a private accountant (after a couple hungry years, anyway) than you will ever make as a government agent. And while the FBI and the Justice Department are able to attract some talent anyway, they attract it largely because going after criminals is sexy, which going after the guy who erroneously booked his depreciation on a piece of equipment in Q1, even though the machine didn't ship until Q2, is not. And because there are lucrative opportunities in the private sector for people who put in a couple of years at the FBI or the Justice Department. The same is true of working for the SEC, of course. . . and those lucrative opportunities are located at the firms you are asking the SEC enforcers to descend on like the proverbial ton of bricks.
3) Many of the rules that need changing need Congress to change them. Congress is filled with two kinds of people: people whose eyes glaze over and whose palms begin to sweat when you start saying things like "NOL carryforwards" and "insufficient allowance for return of merchandise received"; and people who understand these terms, indeed revel in them . . . because they spent a significant amount of time working for one of the banks or law firms you want them to regulate, made most of their money that way, and still count the titans of that industry as close personal friends.
4) The public doesn't understand anything about accounting regulations. This makes them easy to demagogue. Hell, I understand accounting regulations better than, apparently, 99% of my readers, and 100% of journalists. Yet I often have to have Mindles or a similarly erudite person take me gently by the hand and explain to me why my take on a particular regulation is. . . ahem. . . idiotic. It is very, very difficult to make an informed decision about an issue like, say, the expensing of stock options.
(Thank you, incidentally, to those anonymous fellows who emailed to say "I think you're an idiot. Why not just pass a simple regulation?" It is instructive in these situations, I think, to ask yourself something: given that all the people arguing about it know quite a lot about accounting, and given that you don't know anything about accounting, do you think that it is more probable that the answer really is simple and everyone else is just an idiot, or that the answer is very complicated, and they're not the idiots here? If you answered the former, why don't you go find some physicists and lecture them on how you could do things better. The accountants already have enough back-seat drivers.)
Because the public has no realistic hope of actually making intelligent decisions on issues such as that one, agencies tend to careen between two states of affairs:
a) No one is paying attention to what they do, because it's complex and boring.
The agency regulates in a way that benefits the people who do care -- the companies, and their lawyers and banks -- because those are the people who are going to go to congress and complain if the SEC rules against them. Witness the march on congress of the technology industry in the face of a proposed change in the taxation or regulation of stock options. These are not, by and large, executives who are concerned about aggrandizing their own wealth (well. . . not solely concerned, anyway.) These are executives who are genuineley concerned about their ability to attract both capital and prime techie talent if the regulations are changed. They're self-interested, but not necessarily in a way that seeks to screw the rest of us for their own benefit. And in California, they vote. Cross them, and you can expect to have Boxer and Feinstein screaming in your ear in no time flat.
b) Something has gone horribly wrong and everyone is paying attention, and the public is screaming for you to do something now.
At this point, journalists, who know just about as much about accounting as they know about 7th Century Mayan Pottery (much less, in many cases) are going to be paging through all the regulations, searching for one that sounds relevent and can be paraphrased in a single sentence. Chances are better than even that they will either misunderstand the regulation (such as the journalists who appeared to think that the reason Enron's off-balance sheet entities were fraudulent was that they were located offshore), or totally misunderstand its implications (such as the journalists who think that banning accounting firms from consulting will eliminate conflicts of interest, without noticing that the audit firms still get all their revenue from the same source, the companies they audit; they just get less of it now.). Because they haven't the faintest clue how to read a financial statement, and aren't going to waste valuable time learning just so they can do some stupid story on financial statements, they are going to get the majority of what they report factually wrong, and come up with suggestions that will be as well thought out and useful as a journalist suggesting to an aerospace engineer that because birds can flap their arms and fly, we ought to be able to do so as well. Those will be the stories that the public reads that generate such useful thoughts as "Why is it so hard to just pass a simple regulation?"
Then their congressmen, aided by political science graduates who get all their ideas about accounting from the journalists, are going to pass some laws based on what will make the voters who read the journalists' stories think that their congresscritters are doing something about the problem. Given the public process by which the likely subject of those new laws has been selected, there are three possible outcomes:
i) The law will solve more problems than it creates. ii) The law won't do anything much, or will create as many problems as it solves iii) The law will create more problems than it solves.
Given the fact that the people involved have absolutely no background that would enable them to actually assess the effects of the laws they pass, the best-case scenario is that it mimics a random distribution: in other words, you have a 2/3 probability of doing nothing worthwhile. The worst-case scenario is that the bad ideas are easier to explain, and thus more likely to get passed, than the good ideas. Anyone who has ever actually tried to get the government to do something can judge for themselves which is more likely.
5) IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR THE SEC OR THE PRIVATE AUDITORS TO CATCH A COMPANY DETERMINED TO COMMIT FRAUD. I don't like to shout, but I'm a little fatigued by people who seem to imagine that a "beefed up" SEC is going to be some kind of real-life Hall of Justice, where accounting heroes swashbuckle about uncovering corporate fraud and abuse. First of all, as I pointed out above, you can't afford to hire the superheroes. And second of all, you have absolutely no idea about the scope of what you're proposing.
The public thinks that when Arthur Anderson went in to check a company's books, they poured over each and every entry, scrutinizing it for possible fraud, checking that it all tallied, and interrogating the executives about anything even slightly suspicious. Or rather, they think that this is what Arthur Anderson was supposed to do, and didn't. Child, when an audit team goes in, they take last year's results, check any "material variances", a.k.a. big changes in the numbers, and do a few spot-checks. That's how audit works at all teh companies. And that's how it will continue to work, because it's just not possible to apply the kind of scrutiny you're imagining.
It takes companies a fleet of accountants, payroll people, managers, and finance staff to generate all the numbers you're talking about. Checking everything they do would require an even bigger fleet. Plus, you'd have to make the number of finance, etc. employees 3 times bigger, because they'd be spending a significant portion of their time explaining to the auditors what they'd done. Which would in turn require more auditors. . . meanwhile, the company can't actually make or sell anything, because they're too busy explaining what they made or sold last year to the auditors. Compared to the level of scrutiny currently in place, you're talking about a simply massive reallocation of resources to audit.
Say getting a really good audit requires increasing the number of employees by 1%. That's probably conservative. You're talking about taking enough workers out of the limited pool of skilled labor and transferring them to do work that is economically unproductive: all it does is check that companies actually made the stuff they say they made. Now, it's worth it if the damage to the economy is more than, say, 1% of GDP. But that isn't the case. The scandals were bad, and they hammered the market. But the market was going to get hammered by something, because it was enormously overvalued. The cost is all out of proportion to the benefit.
Meanwhile, if the company really, really wants to lie, they're going to put in five of their really sharp folks to surround the area they're lying about, and you're not going to catch them, because they're good liars, and because they know what you're looking for, but you don't.
Increasing the SEC budget may be worthwhile, but absent the kinds of structural changes Mindles is talking about, it's not going to fix the problem. And those changes can only come from reasoned debate between people who understand the issues, not mass hysteria.
That would be a major ouch! for the party, since it means they'd drop to third on the ballot, behind the Republicans and the Independance Party, for the next four years.
This is thanks to a lackluster campaign run by Carl McCall, combined with the advertising strength of filthy rich, certified wing-nut Tom Golisano, who has been attacking Pataki, but ironically, seems to be picking up Democrats who want to vote against Pataki, instead of the apparent target of his ads: Republicans who want to vote for someone who will actually, you know, govern like a conservative. Fiscally, I mean. Not that Golisano is necessarily that man; he's run for election before, and looking over the platforms he's run on, it's hard to see what he really stands for, except of course election.
Meanwhile, Pataki has been running some really atrocious ads against Carl McCall, basically accusing him of wanting to rape the environment, leave our children unwashed and illiterate, kill our needy seniors, and all manner of other horrors. . . all because as Comptroller, he didn't vote for companies to embrace price caps on prescription drugs, bizarrely cost-ineffective environmental proposals, and similar sterling ideas. In other words, he didn't violate his fiduciary duty to the people he was supposed to be representing. We've reached a pretty pass when the Republican governor is running to the left of the Democratic candidate -- except it's hard to be sure that's actually the case, because I've yet to see anything from McCall except a couple of genial news conferences at which he comes out foursqare in favor of Mom, Apple Pie, and Our American Values. I don't like the Pataki ads, but it's hard to be too angry about them, because the McCall response is so weak. Pataki's campaign has saturated the airways 'round here, and not once have I seen a McCall ad running against them. I know they may be short on cash, but what are you saving it for, Carl? The concession party? Election's in two weeks.
I still don't know which way I'm going to vote; every time I think I've decided, another ad runs and I change my mind. But my mother, who is an invaluable barometer for The Sentiment of the People, is thinking about voting for Golisano. She knows he's a wing-nut, but. . . "Pataki's just too much of a tall white man," she says. And McCall?
"Who's McCall?" she says, frowning. "Oh, the Democratic candidate? Is that his name?"
I think the Democrats are right to be very, very afraid.
I just watched a commercial aimed at people who have been misdiagnosed with depression, but in fact are manic-depressive, urging them to reassess their condition.
As it happens, I know a couple of people who had just this sort of thing happen, and it can be dangerous -- the medicines prescribed for depression can make bipolar people worse, not better.
The commercial was sponsored by Lilly, which, unsurprisingly, has a medication for bipolar disorder. Sure, it promotes the company's self interest. On the other hand, it seems to me, it also promotes people with bipolar disorder getting correctly diagnosed and treated. I know physicians hate those Celebrex commercials which put hordes of people in their office demanding meds they don't need. On the other hand, my sympathy is limited by the fact that hordes of people demand (unadvertised) antibiotics they don't need, and physicians comply just to get them out of their office. Live by the sword. . .
Anyway, isn't this just the sort of advertising we'd want done under a nationalized health care system? And who'd pay for it then? It's not like the government will have any interest in spending a lot of money in order to encourage people to seek expensive mental health treatment.
Mindles H. Dreck, before whose intelligence and erudition I kneel in awed admiration, has posted this table from the Census showing the income-to-poverty ratios from the census. This tells you, for each quintile (fancy word for fifth of the population, divided by income), what their income was as a percentage of the poverty line.
What does it show?
The bottom quintile held steady, or slightly faltered, from 1967, ground zero for Paul Krugman's edenic economic paradise. The second-from-the-bottom increased slightly. The middle quintile increased markedly. The second-from-the-top increased even more markedly. And the top quintile increased very markedly.
What does this tell us?
Well, Krugman is right that inequality is increasing. But it seems to deny his assertion that it is increasing because the bottom 4 quintiles have basically stayed stat, with all the increase in GDP since 1970 accruing to the very rich. The very bottom has stayed flat, but then, we'd expect that; the very bottom consists either of very young workers with no skills, or people for whom the government's baseline has set a floor on their standard of living. If that baseline was supporting life in 1967, you wouldn't expect it to have increased much since.
A number of you have emailed to ask what I think of the Paul Krugman article. I know you're all expecting me to dump all over it, but I quite agree with a lot of it. It's been obvious to me for quite some time that the level of many CEO salaries was based less on their personal acumen, and more on their ability to build a captive board that ratified insane stock options. And other unsalutary developments, about which I'll explain more later.
Some of the sections are terrific, such as this able summation of the theories behind rising inequality:
In the middle of the 1980's, as economists became aware that something important was happening to the distribution of income in America, they formulated three main hypotheses about its causes.
The ''globalization'' hypothesis tied America's changing income distribution to the growth of world trade, and especially the growing imports of manufactured goods from the third world. Its basic message was that blue-collar workers -- the sort of people who in my youth often made as much money as college-educated middle managers -- were losing ground in the face of competition from low-wage workers in Asia. A result was stagnation or decline in the wages of ordinary people, with a growing share of national income going to the highly educated.
A second hypothesis, ''skill-biased technological change,'' situated the cause of growing inequality not in foreign trade but in domestic innovation. The torrid pace of progress in information technology, so the story went, had increased the demand for the highly skilled and educated. And so the income distribution increasingly favored brains rather than brawn.
Finally, the ''superstar'' hypothesis -- named by the Chicago economist Sherwin Rosen -- offered a variant on the technological story. It argued that modern technologies of communication often turn competition into a tournament in which the winner is richly rewarded, while the runners-up get far less. The classic example -- which gives the theory its name -- is the entertainment business. As Rosen pointed out, in bygone days there were hundreds of comedians making a modest living at live shows in the borscht belt and other places. Now they are mostly gone; what is left is a handful of superstar TV comedians.
The debates among these hypotheses -- particularly the debate between those who attributed growing inequality to globalization and those who attributed it to technology -- were many and bitter. I was a participant in those debates myself. But I won't dwell on them, because in the last few years there has been a growing sense among economists that none of these hypotheses work.
Although I would like to point out that one of the reasons he won't dwell is that he was firmly behind the "skill" theory, which doesn't track with the data. And personally, I think the theory he seems to prefer now is a little. . . well, iffy:
Some -- by no means all -- economists trying to understand growing inequality have begun to take seriously a hypothesis that would have been considered irredeemably fuzzy-minded not long ago. This view stresses the role of social norms in setting limits to inequality. According to this view, the New Deal had a more profound impact on American society than even its most ardent admirers have suggested: it imposed norms of relative equality in pay that persisted for more than 30 years, creating the broadly middle-class society we came to take for granted. But those norms began to unravel in the 1970's and have done so at an accelerating pace.
I'm afraid I just don't believe that people refrained from, say, making themselves enormous compensation awards in the 60's because they felt it wouldn't be cricket, but feel no shame about doing so now. This relies on a somewhat utopian view of corporations:
Exhibit A for this view is the story of executive compensation. In the 1960's, America's great corporations behaved more like socialist republics than like cutthroat capitalist enterprises, and top executives behaved more like public-spirited bureaucrats than like captains of industry. I'm not exaggerating. Consider the description of executive behavior offered by John Kenneth Galbraith in his 1967 book, ''The New Industrial State'': ''Management does not go out ruthlessly to reward itself -- a sound management is expected to exercise restraint.'' Managerial self-dealing was a thing of the past: ''With the power of decision goes opportunity for making money. . . . Were everyone to seek to do so . . . the corporation would be a chaos of competitive avarice. But these are not the sort of thing that a good company man does; a remarkably effective code bans such behavior. Group decision-making insures, moreover, that almost everyone's actions and even thoughts are known to others. This acts to enforce the code and, more than incidentally, a high standard of personal honesty as well.''
John Kenneth Galbraith's "New Industrial State" is not exactly a quotation to fill me with confidence in what comes behind, since it is arguably the worst of Galbraith's breathtakingly bad books on economic theory. (His economic history books, such as the Great Crash of 1929, are much better.) And Krugman himself seems to be confusing GM's press releases with their actual behavior. Managerial self-dealing was rampant in the 50's, 60's and 70's, the era of takeovers done for no reason other than to build personal fiefdoms; expense accounts that would make a con man blush; and tax-deductible everything.
On the other hand, I flat out disagree with this:
Economists also did their bit to legitimize previously unthinkable levels of executive pay. During the 1980's and 1990's a torrent of academic papers -- popularized in business magazines and incorporated into consultants' recommendations -- argued that Gordon Gekko was right: greed is good; greed works. In order to get the best performance out of executives, these papers argued, it was necessary to align their interests with those of stockholders. And the way to do that was with large grants of stock or stock options.
I don't disagree that economists said this, but Krugman's implication is that they were wrong. They were right. They still are. What they didn't do was predict the ways that certain regulatory schemes -- schemes, I might add, that were passed to curb the inequality Krugman is lamenting -- interacted with this theory to produce a disaster. The law capping the deductibility of cash or stock compensation at $1 million pushed CEO compensation into stock options. This was compounded by the fact that stock options are tax favored, for both company and employee, over other forms of compensation.
This had several effects. Some seem to have taken unconscionable risks because options are a different security from the one investors hold, one that encourages risk taking behavior since executives have unlimited upside if the price rises, but the downside is the same whether the stock price holds steady or falls to 2 cents. It exacerbated an already strong trend towards earnings management, since executives generally want to liquidate their options as soon as they mature, and therefore needed, each and every quarter, to keep earnings from the precipitous slump an earnings restatement can produce. It also pushed a lot of compensation off-balance sheet, making it easier to raise it to unconscionable levels.
Now, many of my interlocutors will say that this doesn't matter, because investors will just back the options out and produce a "real" EPS number. I believe this is mistaken in several ways. First of all, during the bubble, many investors were trading on something other than a full understanding of the numbers. I was at a dinner last week, listening to several financial professionals agree with each other that it was ludicrous that people should trade stocks based on research done by investment banks, when the conflicts were obvious. Well, yes they were, to us. Not to my mother, or the millions of investors like her. Not to mention the fools who mortgaged the house to day trade. Many of the spectacular rises in price were produced by those folks, buying what they didn't understand. Executives with stock options profited handsomely from this sort of trading.
The other reason this doesn't hold is that the balance sheet is where the majority of people are going to look for executive compensation. Stock option grants are delayed compensation, and don't show up on the public radar until the executive cashes in some years later. Thus, any present grant is a painless gift for the board to make to the CEO; no one's going to complain until it's too late.
However, none of this invalidates the general theory that stock aligns CEO incentives with those of the shareholders better than does cash salary; it does. The companies of those halcyon days Krugman is recalling were logy with corporate fat, brought on by the astounding disconnect between what was good for t