April 30, 2002
From the desk of Jane Galt:KrugmanWatch Paul Krugman has a
KrugmanWatch
Paul Krugman has a column today that's levelheaded and doesn't even mention Bush. He points out that the market dropped on the news of 5.8% growth, and takes us through why that isn't the fabulous news it might seem. He comes down pretty heavily on predictions of a "jobless recovery" over the next few quarters.A couple of caveats: Paul Krugman wants there to be a jobless recovery over the next few quarters, not because he's a mean person, but because he'd like to see Democrats take the House and keep the Senate come November, and the only way that'll happen, it seems, is if the economy's hard on the swing voters. Which is not to say that Krugman's wrong; just that in evaluating his arguments, you have to discount for the possibility of wishful thinking.
Second, there are other reasons the market might have dropped, including fears that this means the Fed will raise interest rates. Still, the evidence that Krugman's right looks pretty good to me.
For my Republican readers who are getting a little panicky, grab a paper bag and calm down. Even if there is a jobless recovery, this doesn't necessarily mean that the Republicans are cooked. Dems held the House even though Clinton presided over a jobless recovery through the earliest part of his presidency, and no matter how jobless it is, it'll be well into its upswing by the time Bush is up for re-election. Plus, Tom Daschle isn't exactly looking like a strategic mastermind these days -- unless he can come up with something better than "Bush shouldn't have cut taxes, but of course I wouldn't undo the tax cut if you gave me more power", chances still look solid.
Posted by Jane Galt at April 30, 2002 9:10 AM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links