September 25, 2002
From the desk of Jane Galt:Question of the day: How
Question of the day: How do you know that deterrence is working on Iraq?
I mean, it might be working in the sense that, after you jump out a 50 story window, flapping your arms works -- until you hit the ground. If he's two years away from getting a bomb, and we don't substantially change what we're doing, is that working? Will it still be "working" in two years, when he gets the bomb? And if you are sure that he does not already have nukes, why are you so sure that after he gets them, the military status quo will prevail? It's not like it did when the Soviets or the Chinese or the Israelis acquired them.
Yesterday's question has been answered, somewhat. Some people have pointed out that we will be redeploying special forces from Afghanistan, specificially, the 10th mountain, airborne assets, and special forces. Will all of these go, or some of them? Is that a foregone conclusion, or a guess?
Least satisfying were those who responded with vague quotations about needing to build up after the effort expended in Iraq. Yes, that's true, but that doesn't answer my question. The things we expended in Afghanistan that we have to rebuild, like missiles and cluster bombs, are not necessarily things that we will be using in Afghanistan going forward.
Also, Afghanistan is not synonymous with Al Qaeda. There are multiple problems in Iraq, of which Al-Qaeda/the Taliban are only one. And more and more of our victories against Al Qaeda are coming from degrading their presence in other countries, notably Pakistan, but also Western Europe and here.
I guess what I was trying to figure out was whether it is actually not possible to simultaneously sustain both operations at high efficiency levels, or if it simply more difficult/expensive. That question still hasn't been answered, although I presume the people who sent me detailed information on what units might be redeployed could answer it, if they chose.
Posted by Jane Galt at September 25, 2002 12:27 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links