September 21, 2002
From the desk of Jane Galt:So. The German election is
So. The German election is tomorrow. God, I hope the Christian Democrat wins.
Not because I particularly care about German politics. Even my German friends tend to fall asleep while discussing it. But because Schroeder has done irreparable damage to American/German relations. Damage that can't be fixed unless his opponent wins.
We are in the middle of a transition in foriegn policy. There's no point in whining about it. The multilateralist model is dead, at least in its current implementation; the UN's sole agenda these days seems to be whining about the US and Israel. Which is not surprising, given that it has the same structure as our Senate -- if two thirds of our senators were appointed by one or the other sort of non-representative government. And a large majority of the senators came from tiny states filled with illiterate subsitence farmers dying like flies. How anyone ever thought that this was going to be the basis for world government is beyond me.
I'm not a unilateralist, and I'm not a fan of empire. But the Europeans have spent 50 years basking in our military protection, and they've gotten increasingly belligerent. They've forgotten that you need a quid to get some pro quo. It looks like Germany is about to nominate herself to be the wake up call for Europe.
If the American voters decide that Germany aren't our friends any more -- and they're pretty mad right now -- then our troops are leaving. And that would devastate the German economy. Not just from the large amount of money we pump into various localities through our bases, but because they don't have an actual defense system that would, like, stop anyone from invading. They're supposed to serve as backup for Uncle Sam. And since they're a little behind on the military spending, they're going to have to ramp up in a big way -- 5% of GDP, say. As compared to the 1% they spend now. Which is 1% more than they can afford, with their economy on the Fritz. (Ha! Ha! Sometimes, I just crack myself up.)
Initially I thought Schroeder had some kind of make-whole-later deal with the Administration, but the buzz is that no, he's flipping us the bird, and the Administration is livid. He's just a desperate guy who's willing to completely jack over his country in order to get elected. Now, of course, he's having some help from the German voters. Who I do not fault. The US presence on their soil is a fact of nature to them, it's been around so long; just like we take for granted the fact that Canada will still be there when we wake up tomorrow. Also, they undoubtedly have many good arguments for why they are so important to the world that America would never dare abandon them. Having been both the proponent and recipient of similar arguments ("They can't lay me off. Without me, the entire computer network would come to a screeching halt in two hours"), I know how easy it is for a like minded circle of people to talk themselves up with what are usually quite good arguments, without considering how the actual decision makers will be making their decisions. In this case, the American people, who do not read much German media -- probably because it is all written in German, though we do enjoy the pictures -- are not going to consider all the no-doubt sterling arguments about Germany's strategic importance. They are going to consider the fact that the leadership of their new government just told us to go piss up a rope, and return the favor.
And though I have, on occasion, ranted about Europe, I am not saying this triumphantly, or hopefully. I am afraid of what's coming. We are undergoing a tectonic shift in the world order, and I am not at all sanguine that I will like what emerges from it. But I also understand that America cannot go on indefinitely in alliances where all the support runs one way. And that just as Schroeder is hostage to his uncontrollable voters, we are going to be hostage to ours.
Posted by Jane Galt at September 21, 2002 10:15 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links