December 18, 2002
From the desk of Jane Galt:Brave New World
Richard Bennett ably demonstrates why you have to take millenial-type technology blather with a grain of salt.
Sometimes technology really is transformational in unimaginable ways: in 1910, or even 1920, could you have imagined the revolution the automobile would bring about in mating rituals, family relations, consumer habits -- without even touching on the industrial and military revolutions it precipitated?
On the other hand, for every automobile there's a helicopter or videophone that didn't meet its early promise. Or a Thomas Watson who misses the trend. This feature from Newsday shows just how dangerous -- to one's reputation -- predicting the future can be.
Posted by Jane Galt at December 18, 2002 1:57 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links"); ?>Videophones are way overrated. Who wants to have to get dressed up to answer the phone? Half the joy of a phone conversation is that you can be wearing nothing besides your underwear and people will still take you seriously.
Posted by: Toxic on December 18, 2002 2:11 PMVideophones could make waiting on hold a lot more interesting.
Posted by: Richard Bennett on December 18, 2002 2:55 PMWhy does Tom Watson always get slammed? After all, at the time he made his statement, there really was a world market for about 5 computers.
I've never seen any explanation for why this was stupid; it's much more akin to the Bill Gates "640k should be enough for anyone" than to the Ken Olsen of DEC saying "Why would anyone want to have their own computer?" It was an accurate evaluation of the times, and perfectly reasonable as such. It doesn't last for 20 years, but 640k really was enough for about 10, for most people, and it didn't get solved until 15 years after the fact. That's a pretty good track record.
Poor Tom. At least he changed his mind when transistors came out: he figured he could sell several thousand using the new tech (first year sales? Circa 17k units) when Univac (Sperry Rand) was clinging to the "five" figure.
Similarly, Tom Jr was pessimistic about PC's (despite making for and distributing to Field Engineers) but let the Boca Raton people go ahead: we know where that ended up, now don't we?
Comments are Closed.