January 26, 2003

silhouette3.JPG From the desk of Jane Galt:

Kevin Drum offers a first-hand account of Schumpeter's creative destruction.

He also asks a question I happen to know the answer to:

Yesterday Amazon reported fourth quarter results: revenues of $1.4 billion — up from last year — and a tiny profit of $3 million — down from last year. And of course there was also the usual "pro forma" malarky: we would have earned $75 million if we didn't have to, you know, follow normal accounting rules and all.

This has gotten ridiculous. Amazon is the biggest and most successful of the Internet retailers, and yet they can't show more than a microscopic profit at an annual run rate of nearly $6 billion. If you can't manage a profit at that level, when can you?


The answer, my friend, is blowing in the amortization of a large capital asset base over a low-margin highly competitive business, and the crushing high interest debt they took on back when network effects were going to enable everyone to make money without working. Back in 2001, my more skeptical professors, and me, were pretty doubtful that they would ever manage to turn a profit. That they have done so for two quarters running in a potentially deflationary recession is actually, in my humble opinion, kind of impressive.

While we're talking about items on CalPundit's page, he comments on the dismissal of the fast food lawsuit, which I've been meaning to comment on, because as you may or may not be aware, I wrote an article predicting such lawsuites way back in May. He points out, correctly, that it was dismissed as the majority of frivolous suits. That is not, however, necessarily a reason to sit back in satisfaction that the threat has passed.

The anti-tobacco suits used to be just such frivolous suits. The immunity of tobacco from lawsuits was black letter law -- a number of textbooks and important cases cited it specifically as being immune from suit.

What changed? Well, class actions came along and verdicts began to get a whole lot bigger. That made companies prone to settle even bad lawsuits, because even though the odds were small of getting a bad verdict, the result of doing so wwould be catastrophic -- just ask Dow Corning.

Judges also got more reluctant to fulfill that gatekeeper function, throwing out suits. There is more tendency now to let the jury decide, even when the jury lacks the legal or scientific background to make an informed decision. That allowed tobacco lawsuits to be brought, even though historically they had been thrown out.

The advent of class actions had another effect: it allowed small groups of people to amass truly massive sums of money. White shoe lawfirms make a lot of money, but their income is limited by the fact that their business model isn't really scalable -- their income is limited by the number of hours they can bill in a year. Trial lawyers who win a class action lawsuit, on the other hand, can end up with a payoff that equates to an effective rate of thousands, or tens of thousands, of dollars an hour. The only other professionals I can think of off hand who are compensated like that are investment bankers. That money becomes a war chest to pursue the next suit, which is how asbestos money funded breast implants and tobacco suits and will now, if the soil looks fertile, be poured into the pursuit of fast food lawsuits. It will fund studies by "nonpartisan consumer groups", pay for PR firms, and most importantly, be poured into campaigns to elect sympathetic legislators to change the law, as they did in many states to make the tobacco suits possible. Campaign funds will also go to the kind of judges who like to "let the jury decide". If you notice the jurisdictions where bumper verdicts get handed out in any sort of civil suit, from personal injury, to medical malpractice to class actions, they tend to share a couple of characteristics: a large number of unemployed people to staff the jury pools, and elected judges.

So the fact that one suit has been dismissed does not mean that they all will be. John Banzhaf, the law professor who drove the tobacco lawsuits and has made the fast food industry his next target, has announced that he wants to file suit elsewhere. You can bet he'll find a more sympathetic forum, like Madison County, where the judges won't be so quick to dismiss his arguments.

Anyway, I could go on forever, but it would probably be more practical for you to just go read Kevin's excellent blog.

Posted by Jane Galt at January 26, 2003 7:56 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links"); ?>
Comments

While the press has been occupied with the fatso and his McDonalds case, virtually nothing has been said about the mother of all class action suits: Wal-Mart v. Visa. Wal-Mart is essentially accusing Visa of tying its products (under the Sherman Act) and seeking damages somewhere in the neighborhood of $40B.

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2003/01/09/rtr842814.html

Posted by: Matt Johnson on January 26, 2003 8:42 PM

The real question is whether the original Amazon.com investors will ever recoup their investment? Or, are they perhaps what I cynically describe as unwitting altruists? They may have helped the overall society by funding Amazon.com during its precarious early years. However, will they ever succeed in making a few bucks off the deal? There’s no doubt that those who purchased Amazon.com at $5.00 a share are happy campers. But if my memory serves, there were a high number who bought their shares at somewhere around $90.00 each.

Posted by: David Thomson on January 26, 2003 9:08 PM

Little has been said of where much of Amazon's profits come from. Much in the same fashion as AOL they bought numerous viable businesses with stock of outrageously inflated value. Once the bubble burst and the market returned to sane numbers those businesses were still owned by new corporate parents who'd paid nearly nothing for them.

Posted by: Eric Pobirs on January 26, 2003 9:57 PM

Amazon has had two profitable quarters EVER, not consecutively. This has been the fourth quarter of 2001 and fourth quarter of 2002. It isn't nearly as impressive when one considers that retailers do most of their business in the holiday shopping season.

Posted by: Manish on January 26, 2003 10:26 PM

Don't be so quick to dismiss the worth of a jury's opinion. I work in Texas, which is the only state which allows juries to decide family law cases. That's a big issue. There's a lot of cases which we would never try to the bench but that we would try to a jury (and we think that we're right, and that the judge would rule incorrectly if we tried it to the bench).

That's not to say that there are not abuses. But most personal injury attorneys I know are close to starving, or getting out of the business. That's largely due to the tort reform which was instituted here recently.

People always pick out ridiculous examples of abuses of the courts, which we can all say are egregious. But the fact of the matter is that the courts perform workmanlike service on all sorts of problems which couldn't be solved any other way, and the only way to service all problems (worthwhile and not) is to give all arguments equal weight.

Posted by: Benjamin Morris on January 27, 2003 1:04 AM

Don't be so quick to dismiss the worth of a jury's opinion. I work in Texas, which is the only state which allows juries to decide family law cases. That's a big issue. There's a lot of cases which we would never try to the bench but that we would try to a jury (and we think that we're right, and that the judge would rule incorrectly if we tried it to the bench).

That's not to say that there are not abuses. But most personal injury attorneys I know are close to starving, or getting out of the business. That's largely due to the tort reform which was instituted here recently.

People always pick out ridiculous examples of abuses of the courts, which we can all say are egregious. But the fact of the matter is that the courts perform workmanlike service on all sorts of problems which couldn't be solved any other way, and the only way to service all problems (worthwhile and not) is to give all arguments equal weight.

Posted by: Benjamin Morris on January 27, 2003 1:04 AM

"Amazon has had two profitable quarters EVER, not consecutively. This has been the fourth quarter of 2001 and fourth quarter of 2002. It isn't nearly as impressive when one considers that retailers do most of their business in the holiday shopping season." -- from Manish (above)

I believe these two quarters also coincide with the only two quarters where Amazon has not charged shipping. Go figure.

Posted by: Matt Johnson on January 27, 2003 2:03 AM

If you watched their earnings report, they're taking SuperSaver year round.

I'm not one of those people who froths about personal injury suits. I'm more worried about class actions, because the lottery-like payoff structure encourages widescale abuse, just as it does in investment banking. I agree that a jury is a great way to decide family law, because most jurors have families and basically understand how they work. Most jurors do not, on the other hand, have degrees in medicine, chemistry, and epidemiology, and we expect them to decide those cases too. That's a problem, when you consider in a lot of cases juries apparently just disregard evidence they don't understand.

Posted by: Jane Galt on January 27, 2003 7:54 AM

For a more detailed (and entertaining) explanation of the Amazon phenomenon, and other "New Economy" businesses, see Stan Liebowitz's, "Re-Thinking the Network Economy".

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814406491/qid=1043680341/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/002-1534040-1880063

Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan on January 27, 2003 10:15 AM

I have long wondered about the viability of our current jury system. In the very early years of our country’s history a trial usually took only a day to resolve. Today, only the unemployed or government workers (who receive full benefits while serving on a jury) can afford the overwhelming financial costs. We definitely need to revamp this outdated system and adopt a more pragmatic solution for our modern era.

Posted by: David Thomson on January 27, 2003 10:17 AM

Forget fast food. The big class action lurking out there for some enterprising lawyer is the beer-belly lawsuit. Who knew that swilling all this beer was going to give me a humungous gut? There isn't even one shred of nutrition information, let alone warning, on the can. Of course, it may be more difficult to line up children as sympathetic lead plaintiffs.

Posted by: Tom T. on January 27, 2003 3:57 PM

Hmm, so what's the replacement to class-action jury suits?

Posted by: Jason McCullough on January 28, 2003 4:54 AM

For starters, I'd like to see plaintiff's attorney fees capped at some multiple of the defense fees -- say, 3 or 4 times, to adjust for risk. There's no reason that attorneys shouldn't do just as well as the defense guys at the big firms, but there's no reason to make them billionaires. And before you ask, I am generally an ardent capitalist, but in the case of investment bankers, class action attorneys, and some other professions, their fees are almost entirely a function of the current regulatory structure of the market, so I have no problem at all with altering the structure of the market so as to reduce them.

Posted by: Jane Galt on January 28, 2003 7:48 AM

If the problem is the regulatory structure of the market, then isn't the answer to fix the bad regulation, instead of more government interference to cap compensation?

Also Jane, it seems to me that your arguments regarding the capping of attorney's fees would apply about as well to CEOs and corporate executives as well. The lottery like structure of stock option compensation encourages widespread abuses, and CEO pay is also dependent on government rules regarding corporate governance, financial disclosure, etc.

I say just go back to the steeply progressive tax code we had in the 40s, 50s, and 60s. That would certainly decrease the incentive for individuals to seek outsize compensation. And, although it's a theoretical possibility, there's no actual evidence I can find showing that progressivity in the tax code decreased growth during that era.

Posted by: RC on January 28, 2003 5:19 PM

I realize that I am just an idiot when it comes to money or business, but I am also a person interested in history (I live in Dearborn, Mich. so the Henry Ford Museum is very familiar to me). Back in the 1990's I had the thought that e-tailing was just a new way of doing catalog sales, similar to the way Mr. Sears had done at the end of the nineteenth century. The same problems that the old catalog retailers faced would be present for the new e-tailers (other than the rumored fate for all the catalogs "down on the farm". Can't do that with a silicon chip). Has anyone done any research on this?

Posted by: Mike Orris on January 28, 2003 6:49 PM

I realize that I am just an idiot when it comes to money or business, but I am also a person interested in history (I live in Dearborn, Mich. so the Henry Ford Museum is very familiar to me). Back in the 1990's I had the thought that e-tailing was just a new way of doing catalog sales, similar to the way Mr. Sears had done at the end of the nineteenth century. The same problems that the old catalog retailers faced would be present for the new e-tailers (other than the rumored fate for all the catalogs "down on the farm". Can't do that with a silicon chip). Has anyone done any research on this?

Posted by: Mike Orris on January 28, 2003 6:54 PM

Re: the litigation industry. Why aren't these criminals in prison?

Posted by: Brett on January 28, 2003 6:59 PM

That isn't a bad suggestion, Jane. Unlike damage caps.....

Posted by: Jason McCullough on January 28, 2003 9:47 PM

I agree that damage caps are perhaps not the right way to go. How about this idea: forbidding any ownership of a percentage interest in a settlement. It would outlaw contingency fees. What are the negatives behind this idea? Obviously, the richer you are, the more likely you are to able to afford the initial investment.

Posted by: JT on January 29, 2003 1:13 PM

Have you got any empirical evidence to suggest that judges are less likely to grant directed verdicts and/or summary judgments now?

Posted by: dwight meredith on January 29, 2003 5:34 PM

JT,

The problem with outlawing contingency fees altogether is that it really does throw out the baby with the bathwater: it ensures that genuinely meritorious suits will not be brought on behalf of plaintiffs with no ability to pay by the hour. Caps and other restrictions are one thing and I'm all for them, but abolishing contingency fees outright would be a bad idea.

David Thomson,

Good luck repealing the Seventh Amendment. Or were you not aware that the right to a civil jury trial (in actions at law, generally meaning for damages) is guaranteed by the federal constitution?

All,

A major part of the solution to much of this would be federal tort reform. While substantive tort law is the province of the states, Congress could probably help considerably by expanding the diversity jurisdiction of the federal courts out to its constitutional limit, instead of leaving them with the "complete diversity" requirement they've been working under since the Judiciary Act of 1789 (under which, all the parties on one side must be from different jurisdictions than all those on the other side). Not to be snobbish, but a massive multiparty, multijurisdiction class action does not belong in a rural county courthouse in Mississippi; the Framers recognized this and it's exactly why they provided the federal courts with diversity jurisdiction to hear cases arising under state law. As it is, the present statutory requirement of complete diversity makes dogding out of federal court absurdly easily, simply by naming tenuously-connected local parties to whichever side one needs in order to defeat complete diversity.

Getting these massive cases into federal court would reduce the excesses of plaintiff forum-shopping, since federal jury pools are larger, and (while it admittedly still varies by District and by individual) federal judges with lifetime tenure are considerably more likely to dispose of these cases before they ever reach a jury than are elected state judges.

Posted by: David Jaroslav on January 29, 2003 11:14 PM

Comments are Closed.