June 17, 2003
From the desk of Mindles H. Dreck:The Waiting is the Hardest Part
This morning on the news I heard part of an interview with a New York State Thruway official about the construction on the Tappan Zee Bridge Tolls (link takes approximately one geological epoch to load). renovations will close down three of the toll booths during the summer, when daily traffic is lower. Not to worry, he says, "there won't be more delays, there may be the perception of increased delays, but there won't be more delays."
Well, that's a relief. In fact, this insight opens up whole new project opportunities. If we could just rid ourselves of the perception of traffic, people wouldn't mind actual traffic so much....
UPDATE: I'm astonished no one has made a crack about the perception of WMDs.
Posted by Mindles H. Dreck at June 17, 2003 8:05 AM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound linksThat would explain all the "Social Construction Zone" signs.
Just out of curiousity, did you hear this news report while stuck in traffic on the Tappan Zee for hours this morning (owing to some (suicidal?) person who climbed up the western tower, causing the police to completely block off the entire bridge for morning commute)?
Just buy an EZ-Pass, Mindles, and keep all the way to the right!
And here I was thinking that it was the failure to perceive traffic that was the problem.
"Sorry about running you off the road, didn't see you, gotta run, late for work."
Well, according to Einstein, all delays are merely our perception of time. It depends on what the definition of "time" is.
This reminds me of the LIRR's monthly analysis of their trains' on-time service. ("On-time" means they arrive at their final destination less than 6 minutes late.) "Look, over 95% of our trains operated on-time last month!" Of course, it's the standing-room-only trains that are always late; the half-empty ones are generally on time.
Average all your usual train rides (arriving 3-5 minutes late) in a month with the one time your train was an hour late, and you get a 97.5% on-time result for the month!
Similarly, there will be no delays at the Tappan Zee between 7 pm and 7 am, and only minor ones between 10 am and 3 pm. So the delays only affect traffic 7 hours out of 24, less than 30% of the time; add in the weekends, and it's less than 21%! (Pay no attention to the fact that probably more than half the traffic tries to cross the bridge in those hours.)
PJ-NJTransit measures on-time using every stop. Since all the delays occurred in the switches going into the tunnel to NY, this artificially reduces the late statistics. Most trains were on time for all the various towns in NJ, but then lost ten minutes to an hour going into the city. That train is still "90% on time"! A bit like the actuary with his head in an oven and his feet in a block of ice saying he feels 'pretty good on average.'
Al - I have an EZ Pass, although the Dreck commute (on which I am about to embark) involves NJTurnpike, not 287. I see the traffic on the TZ all the time, however, mostly when I am headed southbound on weekends and see the Northbound at a standstill.
Paul - comment of the week, that is.
"there won't be more delays, there may be the perception of increased delays, but there won't be more delays."
Don't be too hard on the guy. From my experience with New Yorkers, when don't they perceive a delay? It's not called a New York minute for nothing (but it's damn close to it).
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