Asymmetrical Information

Hurricane Begbee to hit in 5...4...3...2...1...

I'm terribly sorry about your grandfather, Jane.

"Even if our typist were in the throes of an OCD fit hitherto unsurpassed in the history of man, there is absolutely no way you could mill it that precisely......"

What, may I ask, is OCD?

James

Yes, the real mystery is who could've forged these so badly. I can't believe it's a Democratic plot; I can't believe it's even a Republican plot, because surely anyone wanting to foist them on CBS and then explode the hoax wouldn't have been able to assume that CBS would be taken in by something so mindbogglingly, obviously bogus.

The only possibility that comes to mind is a malicious person (of which party I can't guess) so young that s/he's never so much as seen anything produced on a typewriter, and so stupid that s/he thinks faxing a document to oneself a few times over is enough to make it look thirty years old. Pathetic. But that CBS bought it . . . well, words fail me.

"In fact, it seems to me that the "Republicans did this to get Kerry" is almost the best explanation here."

In law enforcement we have the "Chain of Evidence". Where damning stuff is found, and who handled it after it was found.

The Kerry camapign said that they had the documents for 6 weeks, and that they got them through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. So either someone planted the forgeries in the pile of docs before they were handed over to the Dems (unlikely as hell), or else the Republicans have a few moles inside Kerry's campaign to add to the pile afterwards.

I'm sure that there ARE moles in both campaigns, so that doesn't bother me. Since the docs were sitting in Kerry HQ for 6 weeks before CBS got them, I have no problem with the idea that someone could have slipped a few extra pages in while no one was looking.

But someone would have had to have been one of those super-geniuses to imagine that the Dems and the news media would react in this way.

It's so darn obvious that these things ARE forgeries that people who've never, ever given a thought to the science of document verification can tell at a glance that they're bogus. What incredible brain, what nuclear powered intellect, could have possibly imagined that literally scores and scores of people who saw and handled the docs would be so inflamed with the thought of toppling Bush that they wouldn't notice something that rank amateurs saw in a hot minute?

If the Bush campaign has someone like that on their side then we'd better re-elect the guy. If we piss off the super-genius then he might just make a mind-control device out of his microwave oven and enslave us all anyway.

No, this was most likely something that got way out of hand. Some bored, young, stupid staffers in the Kerry campaign office type up a few damning memos and slip them into the pile. It smells to me like a college prank then any master plan by people who have made it to the top of national politics.

James

OCD: Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.

This is going to test their ability to keep a straight face while everyone in the room knows they're lying out their arse. You know it. I know it. You KNOW I know it, and I know you know it. So cut the bullshit.

NOBODY was deceived by this.

Nobody.

Poop. Michelle scooped me while I was composing my last comment. And she did it in less space.

Good job, Michelle.

James

James,

Poop. Michelle scooped me while I was composing my last comment. And she did it in less space.

Well, maybe. But not with lines like

If we piss off the super-genius then he might just make a mind-control device out of his microwave oven and enslave us all anyway.

And I hadn't heard it confirmed that these puppies came from the Kerry campaign, though I certainly have heard it rumored.

But thanks anyway ;-)

Only problem with your argument is that the memos actually don't line up with word.

The line lenthgs are slithgly different, some of the letterforms are differrent (notice the 4 and compare with Microsoft's Times New Roman 4).

And finally, it virtually impossible for word to produce lines of text where the letters themselves are a bit above or below the basline. But the memos do, which pretty much proves that they were printed on a typewriter.

You really ought to do your homework a bit better before you go off and sling a thousand words on the "motive of the forgers".

If the documents are forgeries they are so bad that nobody could really expect them to withstand national scrutiny. If the target was CBS itself the forger would have to assume that a professional forensic document specialist would eventually see them. Therefor, I think the most likely source of the forgeries is someone who was targeting someone in the Democratic organization for purposes of getting a job, promotion or influence. i don't think the documents were ever intended for a wider audience.

For example, somebody wants to land a job in "opposition research" for some democrat. They produce the documents and then show them to the target in faxed or photocopied form saying, "I don't have the originals but I got these copies." The target is convinced the forger is a genius and hires or promotes them. The forger believes that since they could not produce the originals the forgeries will never see a wider audience.

Unfortunately for the forger, the forgeries get widely circulated within the Democratic organization and eventually end up in hand of CBS who is so hot for the story they don't care that they don't have originals.

Bones -

You must know these are fakes. The documents are astonishingly bad forgeries that line up with Word formatting almost perfectly (and absolutely perfectly on the horizontal), despite degradation from copying and faxing. Futher, typewriters that used fonts similar to Times New Roman were vanishingly rare in 1972, no letterhead documents over Killian's signature use that fontface, and Killian didn't type, according to his widow.

It's stupid even to argue this, as Megan notes. Just give it up.

The problem with your argument is that the documents don't match up with MS word documents. Well, its your main, problem. The others are that you have no expertise in this field and haven't examined actual documents, but online images, which tend to get distorted after copying and scanning. Whether they are real or not, I don't know, but you sure don't make a good or even decent case for them being forgeries.

Bones,

I believe the distortions you are seeing result from scanner imperfections. These documents have passed at least once through a round bed scanner like a fax.

All this is academic. All we need to do is look at the original documents. If they were written on a typewriter, the paper will be indented. If they were produced on a laserwriter or ink-jet they will not be.

CBS needs to produce the original documents post-haste for examination by outside specialist. They will be able to tell immediately if the documents were typewritten or not. They will be able to tell within hours whether they are thirty years old and exactly what typewriter they were produced on.

If CBS cannot produce the originals, then they need to admit that they have no way of knowing whether the documents are authentic or not. Since several noted specialist are already on record as saying the documents appear dubious, the burden of proof is on those who claim them authentic.

bones - You're killing me.

My theory:

It must have been Karl Rove.

In fact, he's still at it.

He or one of his operatives have shown up right here on this here forum under the moniker "Bones" and are making up absurd arguments that make Kerry supporters look like pathetic idiots.

The most entertaining part of this is going to be watching leftwingers shift from defending the memos as completely authentic to swinging the complete opposite direction to saying that the memos were such obvious forgeries that no one who dislikes bush would ever have made them.

To me, this is just a case of democrats passing the memos on to CBS because they really wanted to believe them. You can convince yourself of pretty much anything if you want it to be true badly enough. Unfortunately I think that Dan Rather didn't bother to do a complete check on them for the exact same reason.

Yes, the forgeries are very bad, yes they will make Kerry look even worse than he already did. But your supposition that a republican made them to make Kerry look bad is absurd.

We have no reason to believe that anyone but CBS News and Dan Rather its controller have any culpability. I think a much simpler explanation is that someone at CBS News created these and Rather wanted to believe them, if he isn't the one who created or ordered them to be created himself.

The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. It is far to tricky to introduce such damning documents and hope that they will be recognized as false. Too many things can go wrong. I hardly think that any republican "operative" would do this right after Bush was announced with a 12 percent lead in the polls.

No, the culprits are CBS News and Dan Rather.

Ockham’s Razor

I’ve come to my default position on these documents based on “Ockham’s Razor.” Most people know this is “a philosophical rule that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex.” Yes, it is possible that the Malevolent Republicans led by the Evil Genius Karl Rove somehow cooked this up and slipped it to Rather and company. It’s more likely that Rather and his CBS producers are that incompetent, biased and stupid. They desperately wanted it to be true and ignored the obvious evidence that it wasn’t. Perhaps they thought no one would notice. In 1992 they would have got away with it. Now, ten thousand eyeballs were all over those documents in about two hours and raising questions.

My rule is to never assume evil when stupidity and incompetence explain events just as well.

I like the "Karl Rove set us up" defense -- "They tricked us by taking advantage of our stupidity!"

Despite some people's will to believe otherwise, the documents line up with Microsoft's default settings perfectly.

It seems CBS News is wagering its credibility on people's will to believe that the docs are genuine. And you know what? They might just win.

Bones,

You may not like what you see, but I suggest that you go to LGF where they have a GIF file that alternates between an MS Word and the CBS version of the Staudt "Memo to File".

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=12551_One_More_CBS_Document_Example

Does the initial "S" seems to be a tiny bit lower than the MS Word version? Well, perhaps but, given the stunning degree of match throughout the document, this is obviously due to the fact that the CBS has been copied numerous times. There are small, fuzzy displacements (like the "descending S") in a number of places but the overall effect is quite simply stunning. It is surely enough to convince all but the unreasonably intransigent.

Also, any idea how Staudt could be playing a day-to-day role in the operation of the TANG two years AFTER he retired as this memo implies? Of course, if you are the type who believes that there has been massive right-wing conspiracy - in place since the 1970s - to hijack the presidency for GWB, then I guess there is no convincing you anyway.

Ozanna, with online images they DO NOT tend to get distorted. Copy a PDF a thousand times and copy #1,000 is still matches the original byte-for-byte. And once it's been digitized once, it isn't likely to to be scanned again.

As she said, a lot of other blogs have offered compelling commentary on why these documents are most likely a hoax.

Whoever produced these documents did a really poor job. Just going out and buying a 1970's vintage IBM Selectric would have produced more believable results. Of course that person would probably have had a problem typing them with no errors. Would have added to the authenticity.
Hey, Bones... you should check the memos before you drink the kool-aid.

The argument that "this is so brilliant that only Karl Rove could have done it" reminds me of the islamists who claim that 9/11 could only have been the work of the mossad...

The documents were created with Microsoft Word there is not doubt about that.

The reason the newly printed docs and the fake docs don't line up exactly on every single dot is because the original fake was FAXed. Fax machines are not very accurate at advancing paper unlike laser printers or good ink-jet printers are very accurate at advancing paper.

Since the FAX machines are not very accurate when moving a piece of paper faxing a doc will tend to either compress of expanding spacing between lines. This is why the docs don't line up exactly to 1/10000 of an inch. Anyone can reproduce this effect. Just print a Word doc then FAX it and print it and compare the two in Photoshop. If the docs where faxed multiple times the effect of the FAX inaccuracy will increase the differences. This is a slam dunk closed case.

The CBS documents were not just created recently they were created with Microsoft Word recently. Any other word processor even using the same times font will not match up. The inter-word spacing will be off. Sorry but the fat lady already sang, the game is over.

In addition to the typographical problems, and the biographical issues, and the various people now saying that they were misquoted in support of them, Donald Sensing and others have demonstrated that the memos massively fail to conform to standard Air Force style requirements (including proper abbreviations, left justification of signature blocks, use of letterhead, etc.) in place at the time-- when all the known good documents do match those style requirements.

I'd also like to point out that the XFL did go broke overestimating the bad taste and stupidity of the American people.

But how do we force CBS to allow independent outside experts access to the first generation copies they have? Everyone should email to Andrew Heyward, President of CBS News. Tell him that the integrity of CBS is on the line and the only way to lift the pall is to have an independent investigation. The onus is on them.

"In fact, it seems to me that the "Republicans did this to get Kerry" is almost the best explanation here."

If that was true, wouldn't CBS have burned its source already?

Well said. Although I'm a very partisan Republican, Your closing paragraphs posed questions I have been asking. It does seem that whoever forged the documents is either a fool or did it in such a way as to ensure detection.

I posted a link to your site on my blog, http://hedgehogcentral.blogspot.com/.

Come on over some time.

Michael Richards has a good point to contact CBS, but I think if CBS were going to rein in their own organization they would have done so already.

I would like to see a list of sponsors for the show and write to them instead. That is what pays their bills and that is the only plausible way to get CBS News' attention.

Jane:

Thanks for your talented perspective.

Michelle:

I think you are right. I would be willing to bet that only the forger knew these documents were fake before Dan Rather's sleaze segment on Bush aired on 60 Minutes.

The forger probably passed them off to someone who just happened to have sufficient credibility with Dan Rather.

Dan Rather failed to verify because 1) He is an old Radio/TV guy living in an Internet World he has not met, i.e., he did not realize how intesely Internet users would scrutinize them. Could he have known they were fake and not known how poorly they were faked?

2) He is too anxious to see George W. Bush defeated. (I think for ideological reasons).

[If my use of English is less than perfect, please forgive me. I am from Tennessee.]

One thing that the Bush supporters and alleged "experts" who haven't even examined the actual documents can't/won't/don't address is why does Bush or his campaign or admin. come out and say the documents are fake if they are so sure they are? If I document surfaced which suggested I had committed a crime and I knew damn well that I didn't, my defense wouldn't be to sit by silently while others raised silly and demonstrably false reasons why the documents weren't authetic. I would come out and say this is bull (expletive deleted). Bush knows whether he was ordered to report for a physical or not. If he wasn't, clearly the document which says he was is fake and he could clear this up right away.

Here's something else pointing at Rather, though it is only an inference, not a fact. (And we've all just learned to be careful about that, haven't we, hmm?) Joe K. said, "In 1992 they would have got away with it." That's because in 1992 the memos would have been flashed on the screen for fifteen seconds under Rather's narration, probably with everything grayed out except for a highlight box around what Rather was quoting. No one would have had a chance to notice anything wrong. Theoretically a few reporters might have asked to see them, but they might not have noticed anything, and even if they did what member of the journalism fraternity would dare to blow the whistle on Dan Rather?

As it is, CBS felt obliged to post them on their website, allowing thousands of very bright and skeptical people to examine them carefully, and thus it all blew up in their faces.

Which suggests that it never occurred to the person responsible for this that they would be so posted and get such close scrutiny. It is easy to imagine Rather forgetting all about that, as he is in his sixties and totally disdainful of the Internet. It's not possible to imagine a 26-year-old junior staffer forgetting that detail.

Even the IBM Selectric "Composer" -- a $20,000 typewriter (in 2004 dollars) -- couldn't duplicate the memos.

Here's the link to a test.

http://shapeofdays.typepad.com/the_shape_of_days/2004/09/the_ibm_selectr.html

What do we see
On CBS?
That's what we see.
We see B.S.!

:-)

Tom Paine

Actually, there is one point about these memos that I haven't seen addressed yet. Whoever typed them double-spaces after the period at the end of every sentence. (At least, that's the case in the CYA one, which I printed out to check my try at duplicating it.)

Now, that was pretty standard typing practice before word processors, but it isn't now. I learned "double-space-after-the-period" in high school, and had to unlearn it in college.

I co-edit an online journal of classical music reviews that has several dozen writers ranging from music grad students to really long-time professional journalists. About the first thing I do when I get new copy is a search-and-replace to remove any double spaces. A few double spaces are obvious typos in the middle of sentences, but almost all of them are after the period, at the end of the sentence, and almost all by older writers. You don't find twenty-somethings automatically double-spacing after a period, at least not in my small sample. You find people old enough to have learned to type on a typewriter doing it.

So what does it mean? I still think this stuff is so obviously faked that no one in his senses would have run with it, but I'm perplexed by the fake: why would someone take the care to put in the two spaces an ordinary typist would put in after the period in 1972-3, but not bother to go out and find a reasonably plausible typewriter?

Enough of all this discussion already. That's old news by now! In the meantime, CBS has released a brand new document (and this time it's the real deal) which is very incriminating to Bush indeed! Go take a look right now at

http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/597afecn.asp

I think you should take a look at that link before you cast aspersions on its authenticity.

DiscoSTU: are you trolling?

Even if the documents were authentic, Bush would not have known Killian wrote them, and wouldn't have seen them*. The WH has no more ability to authenticate them than the blogosphere.

* except for the document ordering him to do a medical examination, but the WH has already explained countless times that since he wasn't flying anymore, he was not expected, required, or ordered to take the pilot physical examination.

Steve Teeter: You may want to google for "60 minutes don hewitt gennifer flowers" for more information about the 1992 reference...

SchmereL: Didn't I tell you to stop reading my mind?

DiscoSTU: I think Bush & co. know exactly what they're doing. The best thing they can do is stand back with their arms folded and say nothing. As Rather self-destructs, to say anything could only do them harm, as it would look like kicking a guy when he's down. Whether he richly deserves kicking or not is irrelevant. The last thing the Republicans want is to go out of their way to look mean.

"What, may I ask, is OCD?"

Get this man a Monk DVD box set, stat!

I'm not sure this even qualifies as a forgery. I've been likening it to a kid photocopying pages out of the encyclopedia and turning it in as his book report. Although if Rather was his teacher, he'd get an A+!

Sorry about the funeral, but if it took place in Ireland, it must have been one hell of celebration of the life of the old gentleman! May he have been in heaven half an hour before the devil knew he was dead!

Re fake documents -- as one of the world's top notorious 'UFO debunkers', I've seen decades of faked 'Top Secret Gummint UFO Files' leaked out to the world, for various obscure reasons -- fun, profit, ego, malice, misguided gambit to tease 'real' documents loose, whatever. Few were ever traced to their originators, but all were readily exposed as hoaxes -- some clumsy, some clever.

See www.debunker.com, www.csicop.org, www.jamesoberg.com (the 'space folklore' section), and Tim Printy's home page (do 'google' -- can't access URL) for examples.

The Killian ersatz-memos fail the 'chain of custody' test as well as 'only originals can be authenticated' test, and since we have no provable theory where they came from, they're useless to support a hypothesis.

OTHER such fakes, however, might show up if a clever hoaxer pulls some UFO-type hoaxes and (as UFO promoters have done) visit the National Archives to inspect boxes of original documents, and then DEPOSIT pre-created false documents INTO the folders, and leave them there for a LATER investigator to find.

The ersatz-document won't be on the folder's inventory list, but it can then be touted as 'coming from official gummint archives' anyway.

So be prepared -- creative forgers have made good livings for all of human history, and the stakes are higher than usual this year.

Jim O
Houston, Texas
www.jamesoberg.com

Mina, you just made my day. Precious.

Jane and/or Mindles, is there any reason you can see that the "Remember info?" box doesn't work for me? I keep checking it, and yet have to re-enter the info every time. It wasn't always so.

Michelle-- good point, although as a 25-year-old, I still often put double-spaces, because I learned on a typewriter.

I also admit to being confused because these things are such obvious fakes, from multiple angles. Either CBS has a lot of groupthink and very many Kos & Atrios-level Democratic partisans, and thus just wanted these to be true more than they cared to check, or well, perhaps the original source for these documents is a Republican plant. Yeah, I agree that one should "never attribute to malice that which can be satisfactorily explained by stupidity," but still.

If it is just CBS's partisan blindness (and wanting to run a good story isn't enough, or else they would have run some equally bad Republican hit jobs, which they didn't), then we're seeing Mickey Kaus's argument of how media bias doesn't always help Democrats. Making excuses that enable poor arguments and cocooning can backfire badly.

What astonishes me is the number of people who have lashed themselves to the mast of the Good Ship Memo as it's rapidly taking on water. Not only CBS and Dan Rather -- Daily Kos and Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, too.

Bones, Times New Roman was designed in 1931 for the Times newspaper, but only licensed out to Microsoft in 1980. As far as I know it wasn't available on typewriters in the early seventies at all.

Anyway, the docs are such obvious fakes, you must be in pathological denial.

DiscoSTU -

There's no need for Bush to say anything about the documents. If they were in Killian's personal files, as they supposely were, he would not have seen them. He can just sit back and let the blogsphere do the work.

"If I document surfaced which suggested I had committed a crime and I knew damn well that I didn't, my defense wouldn't be to sit by silently while others raised silly and demonstrably false reasons why the documents weren't authetic."

Well, they might, if it was written in purple marker on My Little Pony stationery. Which is sillier than this case, but not by much.

The only explanation that makes sense, as to the source of these fakes, is that Dan Rather himself, was involved in procuring the docs. Otherwise, they would have never seen the light of day after being subject to some elementary inspection and questioning. Some have suggested Rather's daughter, an active Texas Democrat, as being involved. Or, Roy Barnes. Or both. In any case, if it were the producer or a staffer who procured the docs, you can assured they'd be walking the plank by now.

As for the suggestion that the Kerry campaign held these docs for 6 weeks, that allegation was made by an unnamed source in the Kerry campaign at the the usually reliable "Prowler" at the American Spectator site. Best guess is that some combination of Rather, his daughter, Barnes, and the Kerry campaign are responsible for this.

To Bones and all the others fighting a hopeless battle:

Give it up.

A few salient prefaces: (1) I'm a lifelong registered Democrat and (2) I have qualified in US Federal Court as an expert on computer document forensics. Also, unlike Jane, I actually used IBM Selectrics back when they represented the state of the art in typewriting (I learned to type in 1968 on a _manual_ typewriter and still managed 55 wpm).

These documents are forgeries, and bad ones at that. End of story.

(And if you _really_ want to challenge my qualifications, recognize that I spent five years as chief software architect for a firm that developed and sold a design-oriented desktop publishing package; in so doing, I worked closely for five years with Mike Parker, a world-class typographer; and that I did most of the actualy writing for a patent that Mike filed for--and was awarded--on automatic scaling of font size and leading in order to maintain text layout while changing fonts.)

Now, were I asked to offer an expert opinion in court, I would do just what most of the other experts have done: I would ask to see the 'originals' such as they are. But we have yet to see a single expert in typography and/or word processing who has said that these were produced on an IBM Selectric (or Composer) circa 1972-73, and you won't.

They are fakes, pure and simple. That was obvious to me within a few minutes of pulling up the first PDF file. The 'net has pulled together lots of proof, from both a technology point of view and timeline/content/provenance point of view. I am staggered that CBS continues to insist these are genuine; frankly, they're amateurish, and as Mickey Kaus allegedly said on TV yesterday, CBS is going to be throwing folks out of windows by the time this is all over. ..bruce..

Actually what baffles trolls like DiscoSTU is that the Bush administration is not as dishonest as the previous Clinton administration. They don't automatically claim that documents are forged when they don't know. It was the Clinton era that saw "The slut is lying" as the first response from the Clinton spokespeople.

Another reason to oppose the Kerry / Edwards ticket.

Fredrick Nyman,

Then why did the WhiteHouse re-release the documents to the media and sent its spokesman out to say that as far as he new, CBS provided him with legitimate documents? Why, unless he is the world's worst spokeman, or being paid by the DNC, lend credence to the documents?

Anybody with Freedom of Information Act or military document archive experience care to explain how a commanding officer's "Memo's to file" might have ended up in a unit's official archives and be subject to a permitted document search?

Aren't "Memo's to file" intended for the writer's own personal information, only to be used as a possible CYA and not meant for the official record of the entire unit? And if so, shouldn't these files - if they had ever actually existed - have ended up with the LTCOL's personal papers, which should now be in possession of his family?

The FoIA search scenario seems to me to be false.

re: DiscoSTU

Oh please. Why would the Whitehouse want to muddy the waters by making a statement of any kind while CBS (and Kerry) are sinking deeper and deeper? Bush doesn't need to defend himself, the facts are doing it for him just fine.

Oh, and one more thing:

> ...why does[n't] Bush...come out and say the documents are fake?

"Never interfere when your enemy is in the midst of destroying himself." -- usually attributed to either Napoleon or Machiavelli

Bruce F. Webster:
Zell Miller is a lifelong democrat too. It doesnt' mean squat.
And being qualified as an expert in Federal court is really no big deal. It really isn't that difficult. You can find experts in just about any subject in a catalog if the price is right. Sorry, but you dont' really impress me much. The CBS expert is one too. What makes him any better or worse that you? Also, you kind of shoot yourself in the foot. NONE of the experts and alleged experts have looked at the originals. Not even the CBS expert. If YOU havne't looked at the originals and admit that is what you need to do, what credibility to you have?

DiscoSTU,

The reason that the Bush people cannot simply deny the memos on the basis of their own knowledge of the situation is that the memos purport only to describe the actions and thoughts of other people that occurred more than 30 years ago. I have no idea what other people have thought of me in the past, so I would not be able to argue the falsity of a memo that emerged recording thoughts demeaning to me on the part of some past acquaintance.

What you are leaving out is the obvious coordination of the Kerry Campaign with Rather.

Now We Know Why

I don't buy the Rove theory at all, but suppose it is true. Who would you rather have running the country, a team with enough savvy and skill to dupe a major new network and their opponents into self-destruction, or the idiots who fell for it?

Regarding Jane's advice for our friends in the left half of the blogosphere, it is interesting to note that they're making the same mistake as CBS for exactly the same reason.

The Rove defense: "They set us up the Rove!"

I can tell a little about the forger. He's under 30, lives in Austin Texas, and is a Democratic activist.

He's that young because whoever did this has no awareness of the technology changes of the last thirty years. For him, things are as they always have been. I know he lives in Austin because one of the documents has the right zipcode for Hobby Field. To know that detail means he lives in/near Austin. He is a Democratic activist because those are the people who hate Bush enough and have few problems with out of the box thinking in pursuit of their hatred.

How is it that these documents were accepted uncritically by CBS and why is Dan Rather being so adamantly defensive? The answers are linked and the link is Dan Rather's daughter Robin, a Democratic activist living in Austin Texas. She got the documents from the forger and passed them on to Dad.

Dad Dan accepted the documents because they came from a trusted source, his daughter. He is being so adamantly defensive because he is defending his daughter.

This has no place to go but ugly.

In reference to the "baseline" arguments of the CBS memos, try this: Draw a STRAIGHT line on white paper, grab some quarters, and head to the nearest photocopier for about 15-20 rounds of photocopying. Note that the line is squiggly after a few rounds, due to the compounded effect of imperfect copying in each round. If the documents were photocopied a few times to make them look old, this is entirely possible, and may have contributed to some degree of apparent baseline shift.

Jim O — I've seen MJ-12 "Files" that were faked better than these "memos."

Michelle Dulak Thomson — I do a lot of typesetting and layout in my dayjob, and we're instructed to put double spaces after each period ending a sentence. It's not rare.

Only people with a terminal case of Bush Hate Syndrome could think a stunt like this would do anything but make them look stupid.

The Swift Vets were effective because they were telling the truth. These memos are ineffective because they are lies. If one rejects the first premise, which requires one to believe that Nixon was President in 1968, it is easy to see how one might infer that fake memos might do the same thing to Bush that the "untrue" Swift Vet book did to Kerry.

Someone should send Dan Rather some flowers, a get well card, and a bottle of extra-strength Prozac for his BHS. The Kool-Aid he's been taking for it has impaired his judgement.

I've been contemplating the question as to how someone could be so incompetant so as to create such obvious fakes. My best speculation is that they were not intended at all to be serious forgeries. I think someone was pulling a practical joke or prank and circulated the doucments for kicks to see what kind of reaction he might get. I suspect he or she had no idea that the documents would be so widely ccirculated that they would end up on CBS news.
This makes more sense then competing theories. A Democrat would have to be stupid to think these would survive scrutiny. I don't think a Republican could possibly have anticipated that CBS News would be so incompetant as to not detect the fakes.
I remember long ago when I was in college. I can imagine myself having a little fun just seeing how gullible people could be.

Nostalgists are invited to cruise on over to http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/natural_disasters/hurricanes/hurricane_carla.html to sample "dramatic CBS News coverage of the sound and fury of Hurricane Carla". Viewers may note the flapping trench coat of Dan Rather circa 1961, then an employee of CBS affiliate KHOU-TV Houston/Galveston. His dashingly dramatic reports from the Gulf Coast got him promoted to New York soon afterward.

Captain Dan the Newsman hasn't flapped anything but his gums for the last 40 years. Menial tasks like typing are delegated to production staff minions. Dan lives in a cocoon inside a bubble. If he didn't, this fiasco couldn't have happened.

I was a bit sad that Begbee hadn't invaded this discussion yet, playing his usual role of crazed moonbat attackbot...but DiscoSTu seems to be filling Begbee's slot nicely.

Sorry, but you dont' really impress me much...what credibility to [sic] you have?

One hell of a lot more than you do, Stu. (Oh, and in the future try to place apostophes where they belong, mmmkay?)

And I'm sure he's horrified at your use of his name.

To me the most obvious evidence of forgery is the "kerning" especially where the tail of the y is slightly under the right leg of the m in the word my. Could never happen on a typewriter!

richard mcenroe,

Michelle Dulak Thomson — I do a lot of typesetting and layout in my dayjob, and we're instructed to put double spaces after each period ending a sentence. It's not rare.

Yes, but you didn't double-space after the period in your own post, did you? ;-) Nor (on a cursory examination) did most of the people posting on this thread.

I'd just suggest that this is another unexplained detail. I think writers who double-space out of habit are much likelier to be over 30 than under. OTOH, I can't see someone who learned to type on a typewriter not noticing how lame these documents look. And on the, er, third hand, I don't see how anyone who wasn't ever taught to double-space after the period would remember to fake that, yet forget to procure a cheap typewriter of the period. It's all a puzzlement.

Brian-
I really like your theory. It fulfills the principle of Occam's razor very nicely. The only problem is that Hobby Airport (HOU) is in Houston, not Austin. It was Houston's main airport until IAH was built in the late 1960s (now called George Bush Intercontinental Airport-heh).
Does Dan's daughter live in Houston or Austin?

Otherwise, as I said above, it's a great theory.

Michelle said.....

"Whoever typed them double-spaces after the period at the end of every sentence." (snip) "I learned "double-space-after-the-period" in high school, and had to unlearn it in college."

Which lends credence to the idea that the forgeries were created by kids fresh out of high school.

Hey, I still double space after every period. But then again, I'm old enough to have typed stuff up on manual typewriters so I figure you young whippersnappers will just have to put up with it.

James

No way this was a Republican trick.

How would Rove know that Kerry or CBS would not hold on to the documents and release them right before the election, before they could be exposed as fraudulent?

No way he could take that chance.

I'm 26 and I have to exert a force of will not to double-space after periods, since that's the way I was taught to type things on the computer in fourth grade.

Note HTML collaspes whitespace. For example, these sentences have each been separated by ten spaces as I composed them. You see only one, however.

Mr. Rather is 72, not in his 60's. Without the source named no one will know about the typography. The facts are correct though for you Bushies. Why do you like fortunate incompetent sons? Would a Democrat get away with this? I doubt it since none have to date. Make no mistake about it, as junior would say, his policies are dismal failures. To deny that is being seriously blinkered.

Touche Michelle! *I* double space after every period. Good catch on Richard.

Excellent post, compelling logic. I'm bookmarking you now and look forward to many visits.

"NONE of the experts and alleged experts have looked at the originals. Not even the CBS expert. If YOU havne't looked at the originals and admit that is what you need to do, what credibility to you have?"

DiscoStu is clearly a moron as he has just admitted that CBS' expert has no credibility. The real question is why did CBS run this story when they knew they did not the originals for definitive verification?

Michelle, I don't want to burst your bubble, but I (who learned to type about 60 WPM on a Royal manual in the early '60s) almost always double space out of habit when I'm posting. Most comment sections apparently take it out. My comments always end up with a single space. I double spaced these sentences. How do they look?

I'm actually open to giving the Kerry people a pass on this, since Dan has been entwined with the Texas Democratic Party and it's high muckety-mucks and supporters for years. Remember, back in the 1980s and early 90s, whenever CBS News wanted to know what the political pulse of Texas was, they would inevtiably turn to Molly Ivins, which is roughly equivalent of wanting to sample the pulse of the average New Yorker by interviewing former mayoral candidate William F. Buckley, Jr.

Anyway, as has been mentioned, Robin Rather is an environmental activist in Austin (SAVE BARTON SPRINGS!) and Dan did speak at a Democratic fundraiser a couple of years ago for a city council candidate Robin was backing. So she's simpatico with the Austin Democrats, who are in general the state's most liberal Democratic group. But while Robin may have connections to both them, and Dan and daddy has his own connections with the state party going way back, the fact is for the past eight years the Texas Democratic Party has been the most mind-boggingly inept group of political asipirants out there this side of the pre-Schwarzennger Republican Party of California. They haven't held a single statewide office since 1998, and their major effort at retaining power -- running off to Oklahoma and New Mexico during the redistricting kerfuffle -- went from a temporary success to a long-term travesty when the group couldn't stand being in Santa Fe any longer.

If this is the group Rather got his "bombshell" information from -- either through his daughter, Ben Barnes or somebody else -- he might as well have been relying on Baghdad Bob for the real inside skinny on the Iraq war during the first week of April last year. And I agree with Brian that staking your career reputation on info from The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight -- who very possibly could have done this on their own with no help from the Kerry people -- makes no sense unless Robin Rather would somehow be implicated in passing false documents, were CBS to admit they've been snookered.

I'm with Brian, had to be someone close to Dan or they'd be toast now. My wife has been typing for a really long time. 40+ years and she spotted the fakes as soon as she saw them on the CBS site.

The double spacing after periods debate came up in my high school class this year. Group of sixty, 17-20 years old, three-quarters of us double space. I didn't even realize until it was brought up that anyone single spaced, and it still looks ugly to my eye. If I recall, Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing told us to double space, so anyone who learned from that rather than teachers probably has the tendency. I don't think the spacing tells us anything either way.

The forger *wanted* for this to be discovered. This makes much more sense to me. Consider - the forger used the _default_ settings of the most common word processing program in the world. He or she knew that it employs typography that was quite rare in 1973. The memos were also salted with enough distinguishing features (like the curly apostrophes). I think the forger was quite clever.

re: CBS and honor

It's curious how the left will put their faith in documents and not the spoken word (especially sworn words, to say nothing of how far out of their way they will go to avoid being sworn :-).

The records fiasco highlights how CBS (and the MSM) choose to ignore and deride the SwiftVets as tabloid (because they have little proof other than their own memories and reputation as honorable men, both of which the MSM give the back of their hand), while promoting an argument based on faked documents and selective and deceptive reporting - what else can we make of 60 Minutes neglecting to reflect the comments of principals that did not support their argument? And the less-than-truthful interviews of General Hodges? Mr. Rather denigrates the honorable, and defends those who have been demonstrated less-than-ethical. Shame on CBS.

Strange beasts, these lefties. How can they bear to look at themselves in the mirror in the morning?

The notion that these have been prooved to be forgeries by looking at the typography has been extensively and definitively debunked.

http://juliusblog.blogspot.com/ Has some really excellent examples of why you cannot duplicate these memos with MS Word.

The entire premise of your post is wrong. Bush supporters and my-party-before-my-country-or-my-honor Republicans really want to believe that they are forgeries and so they are seizing on any pretext to believe that they are. Then they can, like you, move on to the next step of trying to convince people that these memos prove something bad about Kerry.

In the end the only thought that Republicans can let themselves think is some variation on "Everything bad is the Democrats fault, and Kerry is their leader." There's a kind of consisntcy in that, but it's the consistency of the unhinged.

All protesting to the contrary; The memo's are likely real, and in any case only serve to buttress an already strong case that Bush did not fulfill his duties or keep his promises to TANG. And that there is very little reason to believe that Bush's honorable discharge is anthing other than the final example of Bush's father's cronies bending and even breaking the law to get him out of a jam.

How you can possibly support a man like that is the real question.

Might I suggest an examination of this article?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/09/11/MNGO68NEKR1.DTL

Of course I know full well that most of the readers here wouldn't believe it if Killian rose from the grave and confirmed that he'd written it, but I thought I'd contribute something to the debate.

Disco Stu,

You wrote:
"And being qualified as an expert in Federal court is really no big deal. It really isn't that difficult."

So tell us Stu, what exactly is the process to become qualified?

Jim English
Chicago

WL, if HTML ordinarily suppressed extra spaces between words in between code items, I wouldn't have to go to the trouble of removing them from copy. But let's test:

Here's one space. Two. Three. Four. More?

Just gonna preview this so as to see how it actually turns out . . . whoa, you are right! About this site, anyway. Apologies to richard mcenroe; my bad.

Now how about extra spaces between words?

Nope, all those are invisible too. Wow.

Seriously, in the journal I edit, if there's a double space in the text, you can see it post-publication. Which is why I take them out. I think this must be a feature of this blog's hosting software, certainly not of HTML per se. Spaces, returns, &c. between code items are invisible, sure, but not within blocks of text intended to be visible.

Anyway, WL, I'm 37 and I learned the double-space rule too; I just thought it hadn't been taught for ages. The standard form everywhere now is single-space-after-the-period, and the fact that this very site won't actually let you produce anything else is sorta corroborating evidence, yes?

None of which means I am not convinced of the total bogosity (yeah, it ought to be "bogusity" by logic, but I've been using "bogosity" for a decade, and it sounds better) of this material. I just found the double-space thing odd.

Strange beasts, these lefties. How can they bear to look at themselves in the mirror in the morning?

Beacuse they believe, in their heart of hearts, that they are the good guys and are acting as patriots.

As one of my Dem friends put it, "We gotta do everything we can to get that moron out of the White House. Lie, cheat, whatever...after all, the Repugs do it, why shouldn't we?" (She has since changed her tune somewhat: "I'll never vote for Bush, but Kerry is a total stiff. Guess I'll stay home." Not that it'll matter much: we both live in a state that's solidly blue...I think.)

The really silly thing, even if the documents were genuine, so what? Bush used political pressure to help him get out of (or was it into?) the National Guard in 1973? Are you kidding me? This is important to a presidential election thirty-one years later? This would be like printing a phony Valentine's card on my computer, singing the name of a boy my wife knew in the fourth grade, and using the card as proof of her infedility to me.

I mean, jeebus christmas, people. Can't you come up with something better than this?

JorgXMcKie, Caddie Heddleson, thanks. Jorg, wasn't a "bubble" to be "burst," just something that puzzled me. It's a rare document I see published nowadays anywhere that has double-spacing, that's all. And, as I said, none of my journal's young writers seem to do it.

Our commenters from the left are a bit too nuanced for me. It seems they're simultaneously asserting that the documents are genuine and forgeries that Karl Rove has planted. Anyone care to un-nuance this apparent contradiction?

I worked my way through college in the early 1970s as a typist. I worked on a variety of machines, both manual and electric, in many different offices - from private corporations to local government to the federal government. Later, I worked in typing pool, to the Mag Card machines, to early word processors like the Wang system. (My current profession of programming microcomputer networks, had not yet been invented.) With my experience, one glance at the PDFs of the documents told me that they could not have been prepared on office typewriters of the period: the proportional spacing alone was enough to rule typewriters out.

Much has been made of the fact that a proportional spacing machine was made by IBM at the time. However, the Composer was an expensive machine and was so difficult to use that it required special training. A Composer was used to prepare camera-ready copy for paste-up and publication. It would be highly unusual, to say the least, for it to be used to prepare office memoranda. Remember, proportional spacing in office documents just wasn't seen as a necessary feature in those days.

DiscoStu and others may question my expertise on document preparation. Well, you don't need a doctorate in economics to spot a three-dollar bill. My eight years of experience in working with document-preparation machines of the 1970s tells me that these documents are fakes, and crude fakes at that. Anyone who gives them the slightest credence simply pillories himself as a credulous fool.

I'd just suggest that this is another unexplained detail. I think writers who double-space out of habit are much likelier to be over 30 than under.

Or the word processing software is putting in double spaces after periods for them. I know I have seen (and been irritated by) this before. Unfortunatly, I am not certain what editors/versions/templates do it. The default template in Word XP 2004 does not.

Bush supporters and my-party-before-my-country-or-my-honor Republicans really want to believe that they are forgeries and so they are seizing on any pretext to believe that they are.

Actually, they're seizing on many, many pretexts, documented in many places, most of which carry a lot more heft than Mr Juliusblog.

And you're right: anybody who questions these memos doesn't give a damn about country or honour; they're just Strawman Bad Guys, intent on doing Bad Stuff.

There's a kind of consistency in (believing that everything bad is the other party's fault), but it's the consistency of the unhinged.

Boy, you got that right, sister. Sudden Bush Hatred Fatigue Syndrome will be the death of me yet.

How you can possibly support a man like that is the real question.

Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! How about "Because he's a good president and a decent man, one who doesn't direct his minions to smear his opponent with obvious forgeries?"

What would the TANG be doing with a $20,000 (adjusted for inflation) fancy typesetting typerwriter? To write routine memos for filing?

Neither the IBM Executive nor the IBM Selectric Composer have a "th" ligature. The only way is to change the typeball to a smaller point size and type "t""h".

Donald Sensing pointed out that the IBM SC requires you to type each line *twice* to get proportional spacing, and in pro-space mode it forces auto-justification. The forged docs have unjustified right edges.

A mystery writer once wrote that if you commit a major crime, you make 50 mistakes, and if you can predict 20 of them, you're an absolute genius. The Kerry/CBS crews can nit-pick on some of the points of contention, but the points of contention are cropping up like wildfire. And they missed at least 30 errors in the crime.

Maybe I'm too generous, but I think these memeos were produced by a rogue political agent. Kerry, if caught in this web, would be destroyed. Bush/Rove would likewise be crushed. The risks are really too high for either political party to bet it all on forgeries. Someone who wanted to smack Bush through credible forgeries, or wanted to slam Kerry through obvious forgeries, or else was just a mean-spirited techie who wanted to mess up the whole election process out of malice, pro- or anti-Bush. However, we can't get around the gullibility of CBS or Rather's frothing at the mouth at a Bush-bashing lead with an obvious low credibility quotient.

Whoever wins or loses on this one, CBS didn't have its ducks in line on a major, aggressive story. Not just scary, but terrifying implications for the Fourth Estate.

Blogs rule!

Michelle writes:

I think this must be a feature of this blog's hosting software, certainly not of HTML per se. Spaces, returns, &c. between code items are invisible, sure, but not within blocks of text intended to be visible

Nope, they're invisible within regular blocks of HTML text as well. This is in fact part of the HTML standard, not just moveable type. In order to get multiple spaces to show up, they need to be something like &nbsp;s, or exist within formatting tags like <pre>. They can't just be normal ' ' spaces.

Here is an example:

1. Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.

2. Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.

3. Now  is  the  time  for  all  good  men  to   come  to  the  aid  of  their  country.

4.

Now  is  the  time  for  all  good  men  to  come  to  the  aid  of  their  country.

The first sentance has its words seperated by single spaces. The second sentance is double spaced (which you can see if you view source on the page). The third sentance seperates the words with multiple &nbsp; elements. The fourth uses "normal" double-spaces within <PRE>

I'm actually quite impressed that moveable type is letting me plug in all the HTML code above. I hope it looks the same after I post as it does in preview!

Jim offers:

Might I suggest an examination of this article?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/09/11/MNGO68NEKR1.DTL

That's a reprint from the Boston Globe. And Dr. Bouffard, whom the Globe quoted, is very unhappy:

"What the Boston Globe did now sort of pisses me off, because now I have people calling me and e-mailing me, and calling me names, saying that I changed my mind. I did not change my mind at all!"

"You talk to someone on the phone and it comes out different than you said!"

Quite enlightening, actually.

Jim also says:

Of course I know full well that most of the readers here wouldn't believe it if Killian rose from the grave and confirmed that he'd written it. . .

Well, I certainly wouldn't believe it, since resurrections are uncommon in my experience. On the other hand, at this point, I wonder if Dan Rather might believe it if Jane walked up to him, showed him an "ID" drawn on construction paper with markers, and claimed she was Jerry Killian.

RMc, first I find it more than a little disgusting how you edited DiscoSTu's post to attempt to imply that he was comparing his credibility on the issue with Mr. Webster's when in fact he was comparing it with other typographical experts. Somehow, based on what I see in your posts here I think your Dem friend is as real as Harvey the Rabbit since if you speak to them the way you write in response here to those who don't kiss Bush's posterior you couldn't possibly maintain a friendship with a non-Republican.

Mr. Nyman, the only people posting here who have mentioned the possibility of the "Rove did it." defense have been the Republicans, not the "commentators from the left".

Ari, in your post you believe the people who say what you want to believe such as the Swiftvets and denigrate the honesty of the ones you don't. Tell me again where this makes you any different than the "leftists" you disagree with?

Are the memos real? Are they forgeries? Unlike many here who should know better I'm not certain because both arguments have their pluses and minuses. Based on what I've read here today not one conservative on this blog would believe they were real no matter what.

Someone who currently serves in the National Guard pointed out to me that it's not TANG. (For Texas Air National Guard.) He said that you refer to the State by POst Office abbreviations. Texas Air National Guard would be TXANG. Or TexANG, which some people prefer.

So no more TANG. I'm full.

James

Please note that I have not referenced blatantly biased blogs as my reference, which is what INDC is.

James, the obvious question is whether or not that might have changed in the 31 years that have passed since then.

"I think this must be a feature of this blog's hosting software, certainly not of HTML per se"

Not so. HTML 4 recognizes only one space. To doublespace you'd have to put in the "non-breaking space" tag.

RMc, first I find it more than a little disgusting how you edited DiscoSTu's post to attempt to imply that he was comparing his credibility on the issue with Mr. Webster's when in fact he was comparing it with other typographical experts.

"More than a little disgusting?" Rather thin-skinned, are we? (Actually, Rather is thin-skinned, now that I think about it.)

Somehow, based on what I see in your posts here I think your Dem friend is as real as Harvey the Rabbit since if you speak to them the way you write in response here to those who don't kiss Bush's posterior you couldn't possibly maintain a friendship with a non-Republican.

*snort* What a maroon. Believe it or not, it really is possible to have friends of a different political persuasion than your own. Try it sometime.

Are the memos real? Are they forgeries? Unlike many here who should know better I'm not certain because both arguments have their pluses and minuses.

Who will win the American League East, the Yankees or the Devil Rays? Unlike many here who should know better, I'm not certain because both teams have their pluses and minuses, the fact Yankees lead the Devil Rays by twenty-eight games notwithstanding.

Based on what I've read here today not one conservative on this blog would believe they were real no matter what.

If CBS would show us the originals and/or point us in the direction of someone with a shred of credibility, I might believe they were real. But panting after silly, suspicious-looking documents supposedly written by a man dead for two decades is a risky business at best. You'd think somebody at CBS would've realized that. They didn't...and that's the real scandal.

For the doubters of the forgeries, here is more evidence:

http://peterduncan.net/CBS_Documents.html

And here:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/
(see the Flash animation)

And none of you have mentioned the "kerning" problem about which I posted earlier. Why not?

And we're still waiting for someone to explain why/how the curly apostrophes Jane mentioned got into the document.

"James, the obvious question is whether or not that might have changed in the 31 years that have passed since then."

That's a good question, Jim. But my source, who is currently a serving National Guard officer, insists that this is the way you do it.

James

* except for the document ordering him to do a medical examination, but the WH has already explained countless times that since he wasn't flying anymore, he was not expected, required, or ordered to take the pilot physical examination.

Of course, if he wasn't ordered to take a physical, then he knows for certain that that document is phoney. Grand and subtle strategies notwithstanding, would be yelling about it. He's not yelling. He was ordered to take a physical. He didn't obey.

Jim,

You wrote:
"Are the memos real? Are they forgeries? Unlike many here who should know better I'm not certain because both arguments have their pluses and minuses."

RMc touched on this but I want to drive the point further home. I have not seen the documents at all, and yet I am fairly certain they are forgeries. Why? Because CBS has not produced the originals. Nobody disputes that fact. Until they do, and the originals are vetted by forensics experts, it is all so much bullshit. Furthermore, Dan Rather knows or should know that faxes of photo copies of documents are not proof of anything. Only originals can be verified. Copies just don't count. So either Rather is a fool or a stooge. Whatever the case he cannot be trusted. Produce the originals or shut up. End of story.

Jim English
Chicago

"Please note that I have not referenced blatantly biased blogs as my reference, which is what INDC is."

So, all information that is handled by a person with a biased position is suspect.

I'll grant that.

What was the ratio of liberal-to-conservative journalists in the print media (as conducted _by_ a liberal print media journalist) again? 18-1?

I'm not particularly offended by discoSTu's questioning my credentials--though I'd suggest that if he thinks it's easy these days to get qualified as an expert in a Federal court, he needs to read up on Daubert challenges. (He can also check out my own background.)

However, discoSTu needs to realize that CBS's expert is a handwriting expert--and I've seen no evidence in his background that he has any expertise in documents, typography, etc. It's telling to note that in the aforementioned case where I was qualified as a computer document expert (Global Tech Inc. v. Global Encasement Inc.; US District Court for the Eastern District of New York), the client who retained me also retained a handwriting/paper expert--recognizing that I was not qualified to comment on handwriting and paper, and that he was not qualified to comment on computer generation of documents.

In short, CBS relying upon a handwriting expert to determine that these documents were authentic is as silly as if they had retained me to compare handwriting samples and render an expert opinion. And the deafening silence that you've heard in the last few days is CBS's inability to find a credible expert in typography and/or computer documents to state that the documents are (or could be) genuine. ..bruce..

In a single blow, Dan Rather can destroy the reputation of the right-wing blogging world and every conservative news outlet that has staked its credibility on the proposition that the Killian memos were forged. All he has do is:

(1) Produce a typography expert to refute each and every one of these 48 independent reasons that the documents are forged, a task that will be quite easy if the documents are authentic, or,

(2) Produce the actual copies of the documents he received; if they're on 32 year old paper from a 32 year old copy machine, he's vindicated, and if they're on new paper from a 2004 copier, all he has to do is go back to that copier and remove the 32 year old copy that was absent-mindedly left under its cover.

Those who have faith in Rather's reporting should be calling for him to do this immediately.

Julie,

The document was faxed or copied with a very low-resolution digital copier (most likely faxed though). That means basically it was digitally scanned and then printed.

This process will tend to introduce some pixel-level errors. The problems you noted on your blog all center around the fact that the multiple copying and the faxing have degraded the integrity of the original text outlines (as was intended by the forger). However the text spacing that Charles Johnson (of LGF) has demonstrated matches MS word documents is basically conclusive.

Don't choose this iceburg to sink your ship on!

My god, Jim!

Please note that I have not referenced blatantly biased blogs as my reference, which is what INDC is.

INDC is the blog that got Mr. Bouffard involved in this mess IN THE FIRST PLACE. The Boston Globe OUTRIGHT MISREPRESENTED what he said. That doesn't fit in your narrow worldview, so you can safely stick your fingers in your ears and pretend it doesn't exist. Jeezus.

Jane wrote:

In fact, it seems to me that the "Republicans did this to get Kerry" is almost the best explanation here.

I dunno, it seems just as likely to me that (assuming that these are in fact forgeries) that the target could have been Dan Rather and/or CBS news. Perhaps these were sent by a rival news network that was hoping that CBS would run with it and damage their credibility when/if they were exposed to be a fraud.

Oh and please accept my most heartfelt sympathy on the loss of your grandfather. I'm sure I speak for a lot of your readers when I say that we all look forward to your return and more posts from you.

Hmmmm.

The single biggest reason why these fake documents were NOT planted by a Republican?

Dan Rather would have dimed that person out by now.

Whoever was the source of these documents must have been a highly impeccable source for Rather. It's unlikely that CBS, without pressure from Rather, would have allowed these documents to be used. Instead it's far more likely that Rather forced their use onto CBS and now CBS is trying desperately to wriggle off the hook.

So whoever was the source, was someone who was personally known to Rather and whom Rather would trust implicitly. Additionally the way the documents are formatted and written makes me believe that it wasn't just one person but at least two people who wrote two documents each.

As for defending Rather and CBS, that's a loser's game. There's no way that either will get out of this without their credibility completely destroyed.

And yes, I think it's hilarious. :)

Hmmm.

"Of course, if he wasn't ordered to take a physical, then he knows for certain that that document is phoney. Grand and subtle strategies notwithstanding, would be yelling about it. He's not yelling. He was ordered to take a physical. He didn't obey."

You should read more as this position has been definitely refuted many times over on other blogs. But here we go.

1. Pilots are required to take an annual flight physical.

2. They have *3 months* in which to do so.

3. The end date for this 3 month period is the last day of the birth month of the pilot.

4. Bush's birth month is July.

5. Ordering someone to take a flight physical 2.5 months early is completely illogical.

6. Writing an order for someone to take a flight physical is ridiculous since it would be far simpler, and more SOP, to direct a sargeant to deliver the order personally. A written order doesn't have any force unless you can prove, i.e. by a signature, that the recipient actually got the order. The memo doesn't have that necessary second signature by Bush.

Hope that helped clear things up for you.

There's another aspect that gets lost in the argument about "could this have been done in '72." The defenders point out that Times New Roman existed, IBM Selectric Composers existed, 13 points of leading was possible, superscripted "th" existed, etc. Perhaps, but the fact remains that the memos are, by the standards of '72, typeset documents. Typesetting was tricky and required training. (I got into publishing in '74, so I know about this stuff.) It's absurd to imagine that some untrained person would be able to (or want to) sit down at a typesetting machine and bang out some memos with nicely centered headings and good word and letterspacing. I've also matched a bit of type in my day, and even if the original was done in the same program on the same computer, it requires some effort. Matching something done years before on a different system is usually very difficult. If you believe that it's sheer coincidence that something typeset in 1972 could be easily replicated using MS Word at default settings in 2004, then I have a bridge I want to sell you.

#1: Re originals vs. copies, I would say that to certify a document as genuine, you must see the original. But to certify it as fake, a copy can be -- not always is, but can be -- enough. For example, a clear cut anachronism, like a letter dated 1862 that says "Beam me up, Scotty," would be a certifiable forgery just from looking at a xerox. Even if you placed the original in my hands, with 1862 paper and ink, written with the right kind of pen, I would still think, boy, what a technically competant, if stupid, forger. [Either that or I would freak out, big time.] I've followed all this with rapt fascination, and I'm convinced the CBS memos are fake.

Oh, you want my qualifications? I'm a museum curator who cares for tens of thousands of historical documents and photographs. This is my bread and butter, folks.

#2: Tinker said he thought the perpetrator was a rogue political agent, as something like this would be too dangerous for either Bush or Kerry to try and pull off. Well, slap my forehead!!! There's the answer!!! IT'S NADER!!!!!!

Michelle, I'm afraid you're mistaken about the lack of double-spacing after periods.  Remember that you're viewing a web page, through a browser that interprets it.  One of the rules of HTML is that multiple, consecutive spaces are rendered as a single space.  To find the real instances of double-space-after-period, do this:
Go to View - Source, which will probably pull up the actual HTML code in Notepad.  Then do Edit - Find, period-space-space, and step through all of the instances here.  You'll see that there are an awful lot of old fogies like me who still put two spaces after the period.  I'm probably just the only one ornery enough to add the &nbsp; code to make it actually show up.

Ed,

Please read my comment, and spare me the condescension. My point was that IF Bush was not given an order to take the physical he would know it. And he would know for certain that that particular document - the one that purports to be a memo ordering him to do so - is fake.

So the fact that the WH is not calling them forgeries because they are not sure means, inevitably, that he did get such an order, your claimed encyclopedic knowledge of procedures notwithstanding.

Now, you can believe that the WH would sit back even if they knew the documents were fake, but that is unreasonable. It would be a golden opportunity to wound CBS, and to imply that Democrats were pulling all sorts of dirty tricks. The strategy the WH is following - make no claims but let the story sit out there - is exactly what they would do if they were unsure, or knew the documents were legitimate.

Bernard Y: "My point was that IF Bush was not given an order to take the physical he would know it."

Oh come on! Do you remember things that were not said to you 30 years ago? Even if the report-for-physical memo were genuine, which I doubt, he still might not remember it, with good cause.

Scenario: Killian writes Lt. Bush the memo and puts it in his files. Bush runs into Killian in a corridor and says, "Sir, don't you remember? I'm off the flight list because I'm going to Alabama." Killian says, "Oh, yeah, I remember now. Forget all about that memo, put it out of your mind."

And Lt. Bush does.

Bernard, by your tortured logic, Bush really MUST BE Hitler, because after four years he's never once called anyone on it.

There are plenty of good reasons for Bush to keep quiet about the documents -- not interfering while the "enemy" is is impaling himself, and not drawing the spotlight away from CBS onto himself are two pretty good reasons, and that's just off the top of my head. Just because *you* think an entirely subjective viewpoint is unreasonable doesn't necessarily make it so.

Michelle,

I'm a lawyer and write, read and edit documents literally for a living. Double spacing after the end of a sentence is a hard and fast rule. It's not unusual to see opposing counsel send you comments to a contract asking you to fix one or two places where you've missed the extra space.

I don't think this is an age thing. When typing on a Blackberry, if you put in a double space, the editing software automatically puts in a period and capitalizes the first letter of the next word. Not relevant to the forgery, but merely trying to provide evidence that the double space is still the norm -- at least outside the publishing context, about which I know nothing other than my law review days (where we used the double space).

If I had to bet, I would wager that these were faked by a lawyer or law student. They are formatted look exactly like the cover letters that law students write when sending in resumes. Self-typed "letterhead" centered at the top, with a centered sig block.

Most business folks, when they do the same type of thing, tend to put the signature on the left margin. Just my $0.02.

Wow Steve Teeter, I hadn't considered that as the most likely leak...

1, Bush was up in the polls (5-11 points amongst likely voters).

2, Nader gets blamed when Bush wins in close races.

3, This is the first time (since the race began) when it hasn't been close.

4, Credibility problems with Kerry could increase Nader's votes (and get his party more airtime and credibility).

5, Nader (via http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110005602#Ralphie%20In%20Excelsior is paraphrased as follows: But when asked what the best news he's gotten in the campaign lately has been, Mr. Nader said it is the knowledge that the Democratic ticket has made so many mistakes that few people are likely to blame him again for electing George W. Bush.

Not "proof" or even conclusive evidence, ok, wild rampant goofy nonsense might be better... but It Wasn't Rove, It Was Nader.

Please read my comment, and spare me the condescension. My point was that IF Bush was not given an order to take the physical he would know it. And he would know for certain that that particular document - the one that purports to be a memo ordering him to do so - is fake.

So far, so good. Then, your thought process goes off the rail into the Valley of the Shadow of Faulty Reasoning...

So the fact that the WH is not calling them forgeries because they are not sure means, inevitably, that he did get such an order, your claimed encyclopedic knowledge of procedures notwithstanding.

Firstly, how do you know they are not sure that they are forgeries? You don't.

Noticed that they released what had been given to them by CBS without comment?

Secondly, your argument that if the White House says nothing about the memo then BushHitler must have known that he got the order is laughable, and hardly invevitable.

Now, you can believe that the WH would sit back even if they knew the documents were fake, but that is unreasonable.

Prove it. How do you know that the evil BushHitler and his henchman, Karl Rove, didn't say to themselves: "Gee, this looks a lot like MS Word. Let's give the Kerry people the rope they need to hang themselves...". In point of fact, I can almost guarantee that the Bush folks examined them, found them to be laughable forgeries, but knew that Dan Rather was too vain to check his ego and his Bushhatred at the door. They also probably figured that the Clown Car outfit that is the Kerry Campaign would try and pull a stunt like this, so they let it ride.

SMART Campaign outfits, run by people like Bill Clinton or Karl Rove, think like this. You ALWAYS try to use an opponents force aganinst him. Basic aiki-do.

It would be a golden opportunity to wound CBS, and to imply that Democrats were pulling all sorts of dirty tricks. The strategy the WH is following - make no claims but let the story sit out there - is exactly what they would do if they were unsure, or knew the documents were legitimate.

No. You just don't understand how Republicans think: WE are ahead. WE have gotten that way NOT because of the Swifties or Dirty Tricks (well, we don't want you libs to find out about Prescott Bush's homoerotic relationship with Hitler, at least until Dan Rather forces the late Senator out of the closet...) but because Bush has focused on the one issue that is of most concern to Americans: the war. He has argued that he is a better steward of that war than is John Kerry. His arguments are finding favor with the American people.

Why should Bush get down into the mud with Dan Rather? His opponent is Kerry, not Dan. His objective is to win the election against Kerry, not to bring down CBS news? What good does CBS News' collapse do for Bush if Bush loses the election?

Bush is remaining focused on his objective. He is not at war with CBS. He is at war with Kerry.

Your argument, which is basically "the defendant did not take the stand, ergo, he is Guilty..." is faulty, at best.

9/11/04

If you enlarge the PDF document, "Memorandum, May 4, 1972," (http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/BushGuardmay4.pdf) you should be able to read the address for Mr. Bush which seems to be censored in that document. Apparently, Mr. Bush had not lived at that address for several years. Even if, as is not likely, this memorandum is not fake, and was sent to that address, Mr. Bush would not have received it. Where is the copy of the memorandum with the correct address for Mr. Bush on May 4, 1972 (which we would expect his commander to have)?

As has been pointed out, this memorandum is not signed by Mr. Bush. There is therefore no evidence that he was aware of it. If there is a possibility that a document might be real, but never seen by Mr. Bush, it would be foolish to deny its authenticity only to be embarrased later.

It is a logical flaw to argue that the White House considers these documents true because they did not claim them to be false. They did claim them to be irrelivant to Mr. Bush's honorable service in the National Gaurd, as many Gaurdsmen have been quick to assert.

Lonnie Kendall

OK, here's the obvious explanation: A Dem. operative forged and delivered the documents, knowing that they were so bad that the Rep. would be accused of making forgeries so bad that anyone but Dan Rather would see them for a forgery in a minute, thus making the Dem pary look bad, thus now making the Republican look bad....or, no, wait, maybe it WAS Karl Rove, thinking that the Dems would be accused of making bad forgeries and blaming in on the Republicans, thus making...um..somebody look bad (sort of lost my train of thought there).

Ah, hell, maybe it WAS Nader ;)

Ed:

On the Asymetrical Information thread you have identified the silver bullet on this fraud. The "disobedience of a lawful order" is the gut issue that Kerryites expected to use these papers for.

You said:

1. Pilots are required to take an annual flight physical.

2. They have *3 months* in which to do so.

3. The end date for this 3 month period is the last day of the birth month of the pilot.

4. Bush's birth month is July.

5. Ordering someone to take a flight physical 2.5 months early is completely illogical.

I know your assertion was true when I returned to civilian life from duty as a regular office on flight status in 1957, Donald Sensing came very close to identifying the appropriate rule or regulation but he hit a snag and moved on to other things.

Has someone gone to the rule or regulation specifying the argument you laid out? Do you have a link or links that locks this argument down?

This needs to be pinned down and passed on. It is of equal importance to the "Staudt" slip up of the forger(s).

Thanks,

RayC

Ed:

Further, in April 72, Bush was on flying status and flying F-102's and T-33's, wasn't he? The subject of a flight physical would never have arisen, if ever, until the end of July 72, when he had not taken the flying physical within the prescribed window and as a consequence, in August, his status became Duty Not Involving Flying DNIF) which was his intent.

The purported order is obviously fraudulent, as there was no reason at all for it to have been written. The forger(s) picked the wrong time window to document their "disobedience of a lawful order" fraud.

RayC

RayC and Ed:

Before you check out points 1-5, you may want to double-check two things:
0.a. Was Bush in non-flying status at the time because he had moved on to Alabama, where they had a surplus of pilots and none of the planes he was qualified for (the F-102)?
0.b. Would non-flying pilots (aka desk jockeys) be required to take the annual flight physical?

If you were to find that the answers to these two questions are yes and no, respectively, there's no real point in finding the answers to questions 1-5, is there?

I don't know. I think the only people who could believe these documents are authentic are younger people who are two young to have had experience in the world before computers.
I remember when the first MacIntosh computers came out with the ability to produce typeset-like documents. That was in the mid-80's. I thought they were the coolest thing, because they were so different from any typewriter or word processing machine I had ever seen.
Believe me, if anyone in the early 1970's had a typewriter that could produce the 60 minutes documents, it would have created a huge stir just like the MacIntosh did about 15 years later.

Hmmmm.

"Please read my comment, and spare me the condescension. My point was that IF Bush was not given an order to take the physical he would know it. And he would know for certain that that particular document - the one that purports to be a memo ordering him to do so - is fake."

Really now. Does anyone really have to point out that it's a losing proposition for a politician to get into a pissing match with a news network? Especially when so many other people are doing a bangup job of carving up Dan Rather and CBS?

Why on earth would the President get involved? The first part of being, and acting, Presidential is not reacting to every single little thing. Something that Kerry's been having real trouble with btw.

Frankly I fully expect the Whitehouse to not comment officially on this subject until it's definitively proved that the documents are frauds.

I don't know. I think the only people who could believe these documents are authentic are younger people who are too young to have had experience in the world before computers.
I remember when the first MacIntosh computers came out with the ability to produce typeset-like documents. That was in the mid-80's. I thought they were the coolest thing, because they were so different from any typewriter or word processing machine I had ever seen.
Believe me, if anyone in the early 1970's had a typewriter that could produce the 60 minutes documents, it would have created a huge stir just like the MacIntosh did about 15 years later.

And regarding Who Did It, I think it's helpful to remember that the 60 Minutes vs Bush case relies on not one thing (the disputed documents), but two. The other is the testimony (interview) with Ben Barnes.

Since Mr. Barnes is a Kerry operative, don't Terry McAuliffe's suggestions that Karl Rove is behind it come across as a bit... ahh, far-fetched?

The point is: Mr. Barnes surely knew about the documents well in advance of the 60 Minutes interview. So for the DNC conspiracy theory to work, Karl Rove isn't just duping CBS and Dan Rather, but Kerry's own operatives.

That seems rather unlikely to me. In fact, about as likely as the documents turning out to be authentic.

Hmmm.

1. I'm not the source of the information on the time period for a flight physical. That came from a number of pilots, and one flight surgeon, who served in the Air Force.

2. I expect that the reason why Bush lost his flight qualifications was due to his not getting the flight physical by the last day of July. If he were required to take the physical in May I cannot believe that they'd let that slide until August.

3. From what I understand a pilot returning to flight status has to not only undergo a flight physical but also prove their skill qualification by successfully passing a series of tests.

Me. I was an infantryman in the USMC. Fly? Only when I absolutely have to. :)

The documents don't match at all with MS Word. I printed the PDF verson and compared with a Word 11 pt on transparency, and noticed that although the line lengths were close, the individual spacings weaved all over the place.

It's random typewriter jitter you idiots!

Statistics says that with random jitter and about 80