September 30, 2004
From the desk of Jane Galt:Reds or greens?
After a long time dithering, Russia has finally decided to back the Kyoto treaty.
This is good news for supporters of the treaty, since without Russia on board, the treaty had about the same chances as the proverbial tissue-paper dog chasing an asbestos cat through the ninth circle of hell.
But that doesn't mean that Kyoto is a done deal. America hasn't signed it (and never had any chance of doing so, Democratic talking points aside -- it flunked the Senate by 99 votes). And without the US on board, I think other countries will find it politically difficult to get their populations to embrace carbon reduction, which will hurt economic growth. But we shall see.
Posted by Jane Galt at September 30, 2004 2:57 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound linksUmm ... but who says that the countries that sign the treaty will actually follow it?
Kyoto doesn't need America to sign it. North America is a net carbon sink (it absorbs more carbon dioxide than it releases). While I'm not certain about Russia, paved-over Europe could certainly benefit from hopping on board. That is, if indeed CO2 has any affect on the atmosphere at all...
This will be fun for the debates. Kerry will have to find a way to say that he's against global warming without actually promising to ratify Kyoto.
Unless he does actually promise it! That would be even more fun!
With energy costs rising in all commodities - oil, gas, coal, uranium, - there will be a massive efficiency drive in the G7 over the next decade. It will be couched and hidden in environmental pro kyoto rhetoric, but the real diver are the costs not the alturism.
Also, outside of some dead ringers, (Exxon, Coal companies) corporations like the idea of pollution trading that Kyoto necessitates.
Screw the Senate, they're a bunch of bought shirts anyway, especially the GOPers.
The ninth circle of Hell is the frozen one, Meg.
It was 95-0 against (including Kerry). But it wasn't actually a vote against Kyoto. It was a vote, pre-Kyoto, saying that the Senate wouldn't ratify a treaty such as the one they expected to come from Kyoto.
Russia is a carbon sink too,siberia ,dontcha know..however latest word is that peat the world over is now discharging carbon compounds which they attribute to the rise in co2 in the air..
The Russians are doing for the money. Todays NYTimes explains:
The treaty provides various strategies through which countries can reach their targets without actually reducing emissions at home. Investments can be made in poor countries to save forests, which absorb carbon dioxide, or introduce efficient technologies, which use less fuel.It permits emissions trading, in which one country buys the right to emit from another that has already exceeded its targets for reducing emissions and has extra credits.
Prof. David G. Victor, a political scientist at Stanford and longtime student of the protocol, said Russia had nothing to lose by moving ahead, since it surpassed its Kyoto targets before they were set.
After the Russian economy collapsed with the fall of Communism, the country's greenhouse gas emissions fell far below 1990 levels, leaving it with a bonanza of tradable credits earned when it surpassed its targets for reducing emissions. For Europe this bundle of credits is a mixed blessing now, Mr. Victor said.
. . . But under the treaty's terms, Europe, Japan, and other industrialized participants can buy credits from Russia as well.
Putin expects to make a lot of money selling bogus paper to the EU.
I wouldn't take bets on the Russians actually signing Kyoto until there is actual ink on paper. For that matter, even after there was ink on paper I wouldn't be expecting it to stay there longer than three years to the day.
The Russians know Kyoto is bunk, all they're interested in is how much they can squeeze -- both monitarily and in concessions -- out of a desperate to try and save face Europe. Expect the Russians to sign if there's enough coin in it for them, or not if there isn't, and to back the hell out well before they actually have to pay any price.
Myria
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