Asymmetrical Information

I live in Central PA and we're told that our region is going to be the one that decides the election. The rest of the state is as clearly "Red" and "Blue" as the rest of the nation, we're the couple of counties that make PA undecided. And both sides, I'm told, are gearing up to fight it out here.

And, no matter what my hero Jane says, I'll vote for Badnarik, because I'd rather endorse a "moonbat" (who, you have to admit, is an engaging moonbat) than a moron.

I disagree, Megan. The potential for the same kind of screwup has decreased, but it's still there. And other potentials (such as touch-screen voting) have popped up.

Exhibit one, Palm Beach County. One of the most highly-populated counties in Florida (~10% of the state population, IIRC). Home of the infamous "butterfly ballot". Said ballot is dead and gone, but the sponsor of it, Theresa LePore, is still Supervisor of Elections for the county. Not only that, she's a lame duck supervisor, so doing a good and thorough job is likely to be fairly low on her list of priorities.

Expect the unexpected. In New York City there will be malfeasance even though it is a known Kerry state. The reason will be Bush Derangement Syndrome. There are too many sixties and seventies radicals who long to recreate their Vietnam protest days as well as rebellious drug addled youths - and that's just the city council.

Dang. 7%. Color me embarrassed.

Well, Toby, that was off topic and gratuitous, but thanks for your witty (and so original!) shot at the President.

Now, regarding the actual question. In fact, since no election system can be fool-proof (fools are far too ingenious), there will be, as always, thousands of incidents all across the country. Statistically, they tend to cancel each other out, which is why the system is fair as opposed to perfect.

This year may be unique, however, in that one side has already announced that it will be litigating all of them, in an effort to turn a statistically neutral phenomenon into an electoral advantage.

Still, in most cases the local circumstances won't be close enough for this to make a difference, so we can pretty much guess that random errors will be magnified into an ELECTION DISASTER only in a close state that may carry a decisive impact in the electoral college. Thus my money is on Ohio. And the big fuss will center around...provisional ballots, specifically ballots cast at non-home precincts (where there has already been a bit of a dust-up between the Ohio Secretary of State and a federal judge).

This, of course, is just my best guess based on the information currently available. Sort of like the office football poll or something.

Kerry will be elected with a minority of the popular vote. Bush supporters will claim for the next four years he stole the election.

Most of us have some familiarity with the electoral college, Olivier. After all, we've been attempting to acquaint the opposition with the idea that the popular vote doesn't determine the President for nearly four years, now.

So you've got that to beat us with, at least, if we complain.

People who believe that Iraq planned 9/11 will be allowed to vote. Exit.. stage left.

A 269-269 Electoral College tie. (or 269-268-1) when the rogue Republican elector from WV votes for McCain.

I think if Kerry wins the popular vote and the EC is tied, he will not give up without a fight and try to convince some electors to switch. If Bush is in the same position, he won't have to (encourage electors to switch) since when the election goes to the House he will surely have more than 26 states.

What could be interesting is that with a 269-269 tie, that the senate could be 50-49 with the LA Senate seat to be decided in a runoff if Vitter doesn't get 50% on 11/2. So both parties would be going all out to win this Senate seat to decide who is Vice-President.

And you can also turn this into a drinking game. Everytime some pundit or talking head says "America is getting a civics lesson" then you drink!

I don't know where it'll be, but the disaster will be the return of Bush v. Gore, in its attempted application (by both sides) to a host of down ticket races. It was a horrible decision (as the Ct. all but acknowledged by trying to limit its precedential effect to one election race), and now we get to see its bastard progeny.

I think multiple voting will be the big scandal this year.

I expect someone will try busing homeless people around so that they can vote in more than one state.

My prediction is that Democratic Party Lawyers will be monitoring the exit polls with writ in hand to proceed to the nearest hack judge to get the polls hours extended in order to bias the results in marginal districts.

Thus setting up the legal challange by Republican Party Lawyers to have those votes nullified.

Dick had it right. "The first thing we do, let's kill all the Lawyers".

I think multiple voting will be the big scandal this year.

Already been done, although it wasn't noticed at the time.

Any problems with Florida voting will be directly proportional to the success of Democrat stuff-the-ballot-box campaigns (aka you provide the warm voter body first; we provide the cold beer later).

I agree with HT, for all the same reasons--look to Ohio for the microscopic examination of voting practices.

I recently moved to a different precinct in Cincinnati and will be voting there for the first time. It's a "majority-minority" precinct, and I expect that it will be heavily monitored, by both sides.

Here's a question: If a monitor comes up to you and demands ID, do you show it to him? My response would tend to be "*#$% you." What exactly are the expectations of these "monitors."?

Ooh-ooh, I like this game! This year's scandal will be the hacking of an electronic voting machine by a Kerry supporter. Initially, the attack will be blamed on Al Queda or North Korea's elite hacking team then discovered that it was yet another home-grown 15-year-old hacker whose parents volunteer for moveon.org.

I'll remember you all when I move from wingnut status to primetime MSNBC!

You're all pikers, it'll be much, much worse than any of those.

First, there will be widespread challenges to e-voting results, with inconclusive/unresolvable legal challenges not just to the results, but to the whole concept. At least one of those challenges will be upheld by a trial court, saying, in effect, "redo the election".

It will be appealed, and upheld by a split decision. We're now well into late December, with no sign of resolution anytime soon.

Then the state legislature will unilaterally select a (partisan) slate of Electors and send them off to the College to vote for their guy, popular vote be damned. More lawsuits, more challenges.

Then, the Supreme Court will say what it should have said the first time: "Umm, the federal courts have no jurisdiction whatsoever in state voting procedures, absent a clear constitutional issue. We decline to decide both cases."

Leaving us with a president clearly not elected by popular vote or even by normal Electoral rules, even more national disgust than the last time, and all the fixin's for widespread civil disobedience in the aforesaid state half of whose citizens feel violently disenfranchised by the legislature.

Calls to keep/dismantle the Electoral College will now retreat to extreme positions on both sides. Whichever party won will resort to any dirty trick it can think of to derail a constitutional amendment.

And you thought the invasion of Iraq was divisive? Hah!

The primary thing that will go wrong with the coming election is that no qualified presidential candidates will show up to be voted for.

Well, considering the Kerry team's stated desire to go on the legal offensive, the MSM's goal of a Kerry victory and the MSM's inherent interest in keeping the election drama going on as long as possible, here's what I forsee.

Bush will win the popular vote by a few points and eke out a narrow electoral victory. However, there will be enough irregularities in a few close states that Kerry will mount an improbable legal battle in each state. The media will fan the flames, trying to question the legitimacy of the Bush re-election, and promoting Kerry's challenges.

Here are the irregularities:
* Provisional ballots in Ohio will be challenged when it shows that they provided the tipping point that puts Ohio in the Bush camp.

* Absentee overseas ballots in Florida will face legal challenges in Kerry's repeat of the Gore team's efforts to eliminate the military ballots.

* The Colorado electoral inititive passes, giving Bush 3 electoral votes even though Kerry won the state. The Kerry team will challenge the constitionality of the Colorado initiative. (I just love the irony of Kerry being undone by an initiative designed to help put a Democrat in the White House)

It will be one of those situations where the fights would have to go Kerry's way in all three states to have the election overturned, but the media will keep the heat on in an effort to discredit the Bush administration.

Bob

Nothing, nothing at all. Kerry will win in a relative landslide, leaving conservatives (like me) in their usual state of equilibrated misery. Voting problems will be much ado about not much; both sides will cry foul nonetheless.

Ohio goes to Kerry. Either Iowa or New Mexico goes to Bush. Whoever takes wisconsin wins the presidency. Then chaos descends on the state when whichever party is narrowly behind demands a recount and there is massive scrutiny on how many people double voted because of "walk up registration". As far as I know there is absolutely no check in place to make sure someone doesn't go to several polling places to vote several times. I could be wrong but I don't think that wisconsin even requires an ID to vote. Several college students will sheepishly admit they voted for Nader several times and explain how easy it was (to fox news if Bush is behind- to the NYT if Kerry is behind) causing a huge firestorm of controversy. But since it is a secret ballot and there is no possible way to discern legitimate votes I have absolutely no idea how it will end up.

I predict the Yankees will go down in flames to the Sox...oh, wait, that already happened.

I'm thinking that Pennsylvania will be the true deciding state this time. Florida will be close, but clear. All action will move to PA.

While treating her arthritis, a certain well- validated citizen will have too many sun-dried grapes soaked in botanical-flavored ethanol, thus neglecting to mail her absentee ballot, allowing the incumbent to carry the Keystone state, and thus the nation, by the smallest of margins.

We aren't going to have vote trouble in Florida? Ha, ha, ha, ha.

I suppose it all depends on who constitutes we, and what constitutes trouble. If the we is we Republicans, and the trouble is voting by Democrats, then I'm inclined to agree with Megan. Otherwise...

We have ALREADY had vote trouble in Florida:

1. Florida officials purge 22,000 black felons, but only 61 Hispanic felons. Then they do their damndest to ensure that the list is not made publicly available. An honest mistake? How very convenient.

2. Two kinds of voting machines are used. One provides a paper ballot, the other doesn't. And guess what? It's the areas with high concentrations of Democratic leaning voters that won't have a paper ballot to confirm their choice. How very, very convenient.

3. State police interrogating elderly black voters involved in GOTV. Florida officials say the selection of voters to question is random. How very, very, very convenient.

4. Excessively long lines during early voting, prompting some voters to leave. How very, very, very, very convenient.

These "troubles" exist in Florida because they benefit the Republican party, and the Republican party will NOT fix them because it cares more about winning elections than it does about protecting and restoring the integrity of our Democratic processes. That is, they've developed a voracious appetite for seed corn.

The only way Pennsylvania determines the outcome is if Kerry has already taken Bush states from 2000, and not just New Hampshire. He'd have to be winning Ohio. (Assuming Florida is off the table) Very unlikely if Pennsylvania is close.

Also, Toby, whoever told you that central Pennsylvania will decide the election was probably trying to sell the CNN deluxe cable package. I've never heard that theory before. The swing voters are congregated in the largest numbers in other parts of the state.

2. Two kinds of voting machines are used. One provides a paper ballot, the other doesn't. And guess what? It's the areas with high concentrations of Democratic leaning voters that won't have a paper ballot to confirm their choice. How very, very convenient.

This one was too funny to let go. You do realize that voting procedures are controlled locally by the supervisors of election, don't you? These are elected officials of the county in question. Selected by, as you said, a majority of Democrats.

Self-inflicted wounds are the worst, sometimes.

Dick had it right. "The first thing we do, let's kill all the Lawyers".
Careful there, Joe, the Secret Service takes death threats against presidential candidates pretty seriously. (OT: I sure hope it isn't a bag of Krispy Kreme sinkers...)
Since I've voted Libertarian every election since '80, I see no sense in changing now, even if Badnarik does seem to have a few Moonbat tendencies.

The real election problem is that come January 20, 2005, either John Kerry or George Bush is going to be sworn in as the President of the United States.

Woe be to the "observer" that approaches me or my wife. Harry Shearer had some good advice for messing up "exit polls":

'If an exit pollster asks you how you voted, tell them to go to hell. The only way to stop exit polling is to deny them the data. So deny them the data. Thank you.'

So... re: Florida... would it be fair to say (oh, hell, I know the answer to that)... I mean, is it possible that there's a (ahem) vast left-wing conspiracy to ensure widespread voter "intimidation" so as to enable legal challenges that, even if they're unsuccessful, will at least have the effect of four more years of self-righteous whining by the Dems? Since winning elections is apparently much more important to 'em than the good of the nation?

I offer as defense of that last sentence fragment Kerry's absolutely unconscionable statement that our military is so "overextended" that we're "forced" to pull troops out of Germany and South Korea. What a lovely thing to say on national television, in wartime. Should he be permitted to campaign on a platform of strengthening the military? Sure, yes, absolutely. But even if his assertion were true, I would argue that in wartime, a certain amount of discretion about what you tell the world about troop strength would be (a) one sign that the candidate might have the right stuff to be CinC, and (b) more important than any hypothetical "public's right to know." Witness Dewey in WWII, whose discretion during his campaign on the subject of the broken Japanese code might have been what cost him that election (my hero!) (but let me quickly add that I'm not a historian and am going by hearsay).

You folks aren't going nearly wingnut enough. Here's my election disaster scenario:

Terrorists target specific vote-counting centers with truck bombs and/or ballot boxes stuffed with something more explosive than hanging chads. These buildings are generally not going to be hardened targets, and the result would be that an unknown number of ballots would be destroyed prior to counting. They would target Kerry-leaning counties in large but divided states, e.g. FL, PA, OH. Those states go to Bush without the several thousand missing Kerry ballots.

Insanity follows. Across the nation, Democratic veins burst in Democratic foreheads. Conspiracies abound that it was all a Republican plot. Court challenges ensue demanding that those counties be allowed to vote again. Even if they're allowed to, the scrutiny put on that process will result in more irregularities and so forth. Will all registered voters be allowed to vote, or only those that voted the first time? Would absentee voters know if their votes had survived? If not, would all of them be thrown out? Other counties that had minor ballot damage (spilled coffee, etc.) demand to have a revote also. To quote Bill Murray in Ghostbusters, "Cats and dogs living together -- mass hysteria!"

If Kerry ends up winning, it's the result of an illegal second vote. If Bush ends up winning, it's the result of a plot to "maintain his dictatorship". Either way, if you think partisan bickering was bad after Florida 2000, this would make the last four years look an episode of Ozzie and Harriet.

Bush wins, 53-46-1, with 320 or so EVs. Simple.

Not to challenge anyone's religious beliefs, but the list of "problems" in Florida above is nonsense. The felon list issue stems from problems at the local level (with the gathering and purging of names)--which, as noted above, is almost exclusively controlled by the Democrats, at least in the counties everyone is worried about.

I've never seen any proof of intimidation by the police, mostly because there isn't any. Once again, there's an illusion that the governor can somehow control local authorities who are quite often of the Democrat persuasion. That doesn't make any sense at all. In any case, the allegations are nonsensical on their face. What do you think blacks would do if this really happened? Make a point to vote, perhaps? What are these cops going to do--shoot/arrest/beat up a million black voters? In front of the media? The obvious reason for spreading this rumor is to get blacks to turn out in higher numbers.

As for suspiciously long lines in early voting. . . . Heck, I don't even get that. Once again, the counties control the process. Second, this is the first time early voting has been used for a presidential election (and the ballot is loaded with other races and eight constitutional amendments). Third, we're all using new voting machines for the first time (not counting the primaries). I think they're pretty easy to use, but there are plenty of seniors and others who might have trouble. Fourth, this election is being conducted with excessive caution as a result of 2000. Finally, long lines and government--that's a surprise? Ye gods. I won't even go into some of the problems from 2000 and possibly set to occur again this time that appear to dramatically favor the Democrats--double registrations and strange noncounts of absentee ballots. I don't think any of these problems are all that serious--they just got made out to be because of the very close election in 2000.

I voted today, by the way. Took about an hour altogether. And, incidentally, I voted Libertarian (as I did in 2000), so my, yes, contempt for the nonsense about our electoral process coming from the left has nothing to do with my politics. I'll feel exactly the same way if the GOP acts like the Democrats did if they lose the election in a similar fashion this time around.

So, how many lawyers does it take to screw a nation? Unfortunately the highest over voting in the nation is in Florida (10%), and, oddly enough, Chicago. In 2000 any number of states had irregularities and the Republicans could have contested the presidential election to cement a victory then questionable in Fla., no attempt was made to my knowledge.

Isn’t it odd that Richard M. Nixon is left to show the Dems class, and how to take it like a man? Because the Dems feel that the only fair election is the one they win, and because Gore had no class, and because Kerry is a new millennium Jiminy Carter/Gore, the problems will be the usual Dem Thanksgiving Ballot Stuffing augmented by the Gore, “he stole the election” legal moves. If GW, gets elected by the same electoral majority big legal BS, if by the EC and Popular votes, big whinny boo-hoos.

My hope of being able to vote for a Dem before I die was lost in the latest, round of Brown-shired, Jack boot raids into the opposition head quarters, breaking office "stuff" and bones, the crack for your vote sign-ups, and we won't let them show a movie unfavorable to Kerry. Podesta did appologize for the e-mail campaign, too little, too late.

Of course the choice of voting machine is one that is now made at the local level -- which is precisely the problem. A real democracy would have the same rules, some machines, same procedures regarding time, same per capita number of polling stations, etc.... That this varies from place to place is cause for grave concern for the health of our Democracy. I'm not sure where the humor is in having the nations choice for President determined on the basis of arbitrary and arcane rules and procedures. To make matters worse, most districts are one party monopoly districts, which means the "enforcement" of said rules is ensured by partisans.

However, the issue of purging African Americans with a felony record, while including Hispanic felons is definitely not an issue of local control. It was a centralized decision carried out at the state level, involving not terribly creative database manipulation, and conducted by Republican partisans.

Finally, as to the long lines, it is a natural consequence of precincts being closed. Fewer place to vote means more people at each precinct. That is a deliberate, planned, and intended consequence, which not surprisingly benefits Republicans.

J Bush and K Harris are both jr relations in Fla, ones the Governor and the other is in charge of the company that counts the votes. Florida was the laughing stock of the country in 2000 because of how poorly and incompetantly their election was run. They have had 4 years to fix the ballot so things run smoothly. Considering the relation between jr, Jeb, and Kathy, arent the reps responsible for a smooth election process in Fla, or be considered corrupt?

Honestly, I don't think completely centralizing control over voting machines and procedures is a good idea. A diverse localized system is less vulnerable to fraud at a state (or nation) wide level. It's not like there aren't plenty of standards in place, anyway, but I have visions of one database where a party in power really could manipulate things behind the scenes.

A real democracy would have the same rules, some machines, same procedures regarding time, same per capita number of polling stations, etc....

Which is why Federal laws are actually a superset of State laws, making state laws pretty much obsolete. Gotcha. In our universe, though, there is no regulation dictating how votes are taken.

It was a centralized decision carried out at the state level, involving not terribly creative database manipulation, and conducted by Republican partisans.

No, it was a decentralized decision enacted into law by the Florida legislature (which, by the way, is composed of representatives elected by majority vote from all over the state of Florida (120 in the House, 40 in the Senate; just a wee bit like our US Congress)), executed to the best of her ability by SecState, and then largely ignored and/or misapplied by the assorted supervisors of election. Remember those supervisors? The ones voted into office by majority vote? The ones whose responsibility it is, by statute, to apply Florida electoral law? Finally, the ones who DON'T report to SecState OR the governor?

Yeah, Jeb Bush and the evil Kathleen Harris made the supervisors do it. Even though they had absolutely no authority or power to do so. I'd have a smidgen of regard for this argument, if you can just tell me how they managed to pull this off. So far all you've communicated to me is you have absolutely no idea how things work here.

And now Begbee shows us some ignorance. Good show.

I have a weird feeling that Kerry and lawyers will be all geared up to sue everyone in sight, but what is going to happen is that Bush is going to do better than expected and it won't be close enough to make it worth the trouble.

The reason is that I think a lot of people saying they are going to vote Kerry now are going to vote their fears when they get in private.

On the hacking voting machines, people in Napa Valley, very left wing, have been openly advocating hacking into voting machines to change Bush votes to Kerry. I have seen people driving around with bumper sticker signs on their cars advocating this openly.

I discuss this in one article at my site if you are interested.

http://www.napablogger.com/ scroll down to "Hack Back by Liberals?"

Everything will go smoothly, there will be a clear and obvious winner, with only a little mewling around the edges.

Crazy prediction? Yeah why not. I'm pulling it out of my ass, but if it actually comes true I'll point everyone to this comment to prove my prescience and utter genius. Otherwise I'll pretend I never posted this. :-)

Didn't you also predict that violence in Iraq would diminish after the June 30 "handover"?

My wild, uncertain prediction:

The election occurs more or less as it always does, and either GWB or JFK wins the election.

My stable, very certain prediction:

Regardless of the above, persons such as Begbee and Decon will, for purposes of partisan propaganda, continue to bark like moonbats regarding FL2k.

If the election is anywhere near close, and both candidates are willing to fight, there will be no winner.

www.verifiedvoting.org

Ignorant? Me thinks you should read something other then rep talking points. A different view on Harris and the 2000 election exists in the real world. Harris's legal mistake, as opposed to continual unfair partisan outrages, was her ordering the various election boards to STOP HAND COUNTING ballots. “Therefore, unless the discrepancy …. is caused by incorrect election parameters or software errors, the county board is not authorized to manually recount ballots for the entire county.”

This was rendered in writing Mon Nov 13 as an “advisory” opinion to ever-cautious Judge Chas. Burton of the famous Palm Beach butterfly and the other 3 hand-counting counties, and communicated before in statements from her. Trouble is, this is wrong- totally completely wrong: a hand recount needs no misconduct, no errors, no machine problems, no fraud- the only thing it requires is a candidate’s or campaign manager’s request within 72 hours of the election. That’s what the law on manual recounts says- not a word about any problems- it’s only subject to a candidate’s request and the county canvassing board’s agreement.

When Harris sent that off, she lost the title of Sec. of State and became only Bush campaign co-chair. She had to knock out those 22,000 uncounted votes for Bush to win, and she succeeded in Palm Beach and Dade - the doubt and confusion delayed things enough. Once the Bush forces recovered from the election shocks, that’s been their tactic: delay, block, obfuscate; slander the counters, canvassers, courts- anyone that rules against them, scream fraud, demagogue the military ballots, encourage the legislature to overrule the people. Not the tactics of a unifier, but a di-VI-der. Only Volusia Co.(Daytona) managed through able managership and Herculean effort to hand-count all the ballots before Iron Kathy’s first deadline (Nov 14). “That was the determination of the canvassing board… and they have every right to do that (agree to a hand count),” said Volusia Co. Election Supervisor Deannie Lowe. Lowe was savagely criticized by the Repubs and press for several mistakes and wild rumors (a 25,000 vote computer memory error there caused the networks to call the Presidency for Bush); just into the hand recount- her stepfather died- and she couldn’t even mourn or plan the funeral. Some took their duty more seriously.

Harris also failed to issue any standards on how to count votes- 1,2, or 3 corner, indented, etc- though that was her job- and that became a huge arguing point for the Bushmen: that there were no standards. She was too busy suing to stop people’s vote from being counted. Lowe complained, “I was telling the division director that you need to talk to all the counties and get something uniform on how we’re going to count the votes! He said, ‘No, that’s up to the individual canvassing boards.’ ” The best and fastest technique, seeing light through the hole (how the tallying machines actually work), was quickly ridiculed and discredited by the Bushmen. It would have worked, too fast (using large slide light-trays). The Florida Supreme Court should have removed Harris for cause- an outrageous conflict of interest, ordered hand counts in all FL counties to be completed in 10-14 days, and defined a countable vote. That could have led to a fair settlement. When they issued the impossible 5 day extension over the 2nd biggest holiday of the year, they condemned the process to incremental escalating partisan legal struggles, where neither side could reach an honest victory and justice was forever denied.

Ever functioning as Bush’s agent, she proudly denied the 215 Palm Beach Gore votes that came 2 hours after the deadline- she even denied the 155 additional votes that were sent in time. Against state law, she accepted the first count from Nassau County (which had a discrepancy) not the machine recount (+52 Gore). The Miami-Dade board, co-opted by Miami’s murky political stew, didn’t even send in the 157 votes they found for Gore in the small portion they did count before they were “shut down” by Tom DeLay’s Cong. rioters.

According to the London Guardian, Harris erroneously booted 9000-12,000 voters (disproportionately black) off the rolls for supposedly being felons 5 months before the election – only 8000 were reinstated. Given all that’s happened- huge numbers of motor voters (license added) never added to the roles, blacks allegedly issued pre-punched ballots- I’m reluctantly beginning to consider that there was something beyond incompetence working here.

The Bushes play dirty- read the Newsweek election issue account of what they did to John McCain in South Carolina. In phone calls to voters, “They were told he was not a hero, but a Manchurian candidate: brainwashed + broken in captivity. that he had sex with his jailers, that he had married a drug addict, that he had arranged a murder, that he’d fathered a child with a black hooker (the girl was adopted from Mother Teresa’s orphanage in Bangladesh), that he had to adopt because he’d infected his wife with VD.” This is the man the Supreme Court has decided should be our President, without counting the votes.

Me thinks you should read something other then rep talking points.

Heh. Hehe. Well, when swiping dem talking points, it's only polite to cite.

Harris has no authority in deciding what the law is, Begbee. No matter how much you might want it to be so, it just isn't. If the law is unclear regarding chads, it's not up to Harris to clarify. If the law IS clear as to deadlines, again, it's not up to Harris to go counter to the law.

And yes, ignorant. Plagiarizing a news article does not equal knowledge, no matter how much you might wish it to be so.

Retraction: calling that a "news article" was an insult even to the likes of CBS. It was an editorial, or an attempt at one.

My election disaster prediction: Kerry wins and the Dems seize the Senate.

I can't think of anything worse than that.

How about provisional/standby ballots? Or has someone already been through that? Sounds like a recipe for tying up the system with no clear winner, in a very close election. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2004-10-10-standby-ballots_x.htm

Bush wins by at landslide, gaining 40 states.

Democrats riot.

Everything I am seeing in Ohio looks good for Kerry, I agree. Same with Wisconsin. The tide is turning. Pretty worrisome, if you ask me!

By the way, has anyone heard about this cloud seeding thing? I've seen a couple of things on the net that the R's will try to suppress minority turnout in battleground states by cloud seeding and creating rain conditions, which usually deters D voters. Anyone else heard about this?

Jane darling,

I must say that you surprised me with this prediction. Indeed, the vote count in Florida in 2000 was a fiasco. However, the solution was put in by the same government entities that created the original problem. They don't have a track record of making their solutions work. They don't understand the unintended consequences of complex systems. While I am willing to allow for the possibility that this election will go smoothly in Florida, I don't expect it to. The one thing I am confident of is that the previous election's problems have been traded for an unknown set of potential new ones.

Begbee, Harris may have mis-stated the law, and she certainly was partisan, but the hand recount done after the election by the newspapers showed that the recounts Gore asked for would still have left Bush as the winner.

As for predictions, I note that Bush and Kerry are still running even within the margin of error of polls that ask who people will vote for. But when they are asked who they think will win, it's Bush by 10-20%. It makes me think there are quite a few that lied on the first question and Bush will win by a comfortable margin.

They don't understand the unintended consequences of complex systems.

chaos/complexity theory at work? lol! While fun to entertain (complete anarchy! Civilization ends!), it's doubtful that the unintended consequences will be that dire.

Starwhateverdahell I didnt plagerize anything. Ive stated several times recently I'll cut and paste portions of articles, but only for the sake of time and to avoid you reps persistant whine for a source on everything anyway. This isnt an academic submission, nor is there any financial gain on my part. Isnt it pretty obvious that when I state "Methinks you should read something other then the rep talking points" that what follows is portions of various news articles? Clown.

Its a fact if there was a recount for the entire state of Fla, Gore wins. I think Bush is going to lose by a decent margin. He lost the popular vote to Al freaking Gore, and that was before America realized exactly how stupid he was.

Begbee, you always omit the facts that undermine your positions. Kathleen Harris had to, by Florida law, end the recount after 14 days, NO EXCEPTIONS under Florida law. This statement was up on the Democratic Attorney Generals web site, she consulted with the largest Democratic Law Firm in the state to confirm that, the Democrats themselves used it against the GOP in the previous election cycle where a local assembly candidate had lost by ONE VOTE and due to some clerical errors 14 days passed and the GOP wanted to hand recount and the Dems went to court and stopped them. Only two years before that 2000 election.

What the Democrats in Florida were trying to do is throw enough shit in the air to confuse people, like you are doing here, and expected Harris to violate the law because "every vote must be counted", no matter if it is illegal. Democrats self righteously felt as always that their views are above the law and that since it hurt them and they are more important than anyone, Harris should have ignored the very specific law and allowed more counting.

The very reason the law was passed was to avoid long drawn out disputes over elections, such as was going on. That was the very purpose of the law. The Florida Supreme Court then very dishonestly over ruled her, and created a new law from the bench that further threw the election into turmoil.

What I gathered from all that is that the Democrats don't care about the rules, they think if they don't like the results then everyone should just change the rules. That is what happened in Florida four years ago.

He lost the popular vote to Al freaking Gore, and that was before America realized exactly how stupid he was.

Since you've decided to make this a war of opinion, rather than of fact, I'm going to have to object to your characterization of Al Gore as stupid. Inept and bumbling, yes, but hardly stupid.

Call me a cynic, but I maintain that whomever cheats most effectively will become President. Virtually every national election features semi- and not-quite-legal (if not blatantly criminal) actions on the behalf of the contestant parties in order to ensure their candidate's victory. It's just usually not close enough to make a difference. In the 2000 election, Florida drew the spotlight. The other prominent "stolen" election that comes to mind is the 1960 election between Kennedy and Nixon. Nixon legitimately won, but thank to Sam Giancana bringing out the "cemetary vote" in Illinois, Kennedy ended up in the White House.

Star I obviously meant Bush as stupid, not Gore.

Napablogger your the one thats trying to clutter the facts with technicalities and fineprint. The facts are Jeb Bush is jrs bro, K Harris is jrs Cuz, the vote count was off due to jrs relations, and if Fla had a complete recount of all legitimate votes Gore would be Prez.

Florida - Felon Vote list Why do I not ever see the truth - the felon vote list was PULLED before it was effectuated. Largely because of the County Election Supervisors. Clearing the voting roles of felons is a duty of the supervisors in every county - failing a valid statewide list, each supervisor of elections fell back on the previous method, which is to use the felon list in each county on that county's list. Due to the lack of a statewide list, anyone convicted of a felony in any Florida county other than the one in which he/she is registered is still able to vote.
That said, the actual registration percentage of felons is supposed to be fairly low.

In Palm Beach County, for instance, the felon list was completely ignored, which resulted in nearly 700 felons voting illegally. And you know which way the felon vote tends to go.

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