November 15, 2004
From the desk of Jane Galt:When I read this post, I thought it sounded smart and plausible, but knowing as little as I do about matters military, I also thought it possible that it was 100% wrong. He takes a list of cities the insurgents claim to control-Fallujah, Samaraa, Qaem, Baaquba, Hawijah, Tallafar, Heet, Saqlawyia, Ramadi, Anah, Rawa, Haditha, Balad, Beiji, Bahraz, Baladruz, and other cities and towns of Iraq--and reasons as follows:
There are two factual nuggets in this screed. First, it gives us a map of the the towns which the enemy considers its bastions. Second, it hints of a fallback plan conceived before the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom, a subject earlier discussed in War Plan Orange. By plotting the enemy strongholds on the map it is at once evident that they are coextensive with two pathways. The first goes northward along the Euphrates from western Baghdad, Fallujah, Ramadi, Hadithah, Anah and Qusabayah -- along the river and road from Baghdad to the Syrian border. The omission of Qusabayah from mention is very peculiar, since it has been the scene of battalion sized battles between infiltrators and Marines guarding the Syrian frontier since the earliest post-OIF days, but I include it here on that account. The second set of towns goes northeast along the Tigris towards Tikrit and parts of Kurdistan: Hawijah, Balad and Samarra. A spur runs off toward the Iranian border: Baqubah and Baladruz, on the road to the Iran. It is hard not to think that we are looking at their lines of communication.The towns along these pathways are probably waystations where men and weapons can be smuggled by stages, a kind of Sunni Ho Chi Minh Trail. My own guess is they are probably superimposed on traditional smuggling routes from Syria and Iran which have now been converted to serve the enemy cause. I caution the reader that this is guesswork, but I think it is correct. The discovery of carbomb factories in Fallujah suggests that town was the easternmost terminus of a finger that extended straight from the Syrian border, a final launching pad where enemy delivery systems were "bombed up" for their sorties at US targets in the city or as convoys made their way along the highways west of Baghdad.
Taking Fallujah then, was not merely a symbolic political act to reduce a 'symbol of defiance', but a sound operational move. It interdicts the conveyor belt of destruction that flowed from the Syrian border towards Baghdad. The logical next step is to cut the line again near the Syrian border, perhaps at Anah, so that by taking out both ends the middle is left unsupported. Alternatively, the US could roll up the enemy line of communication going north by taking out Ramadi which would force the enemy to sortie from Haditha, a little ville a lot farther from Baghdad. Although this will not totally destroy the insurgency, it will throttle movement along their lines of communication considerably. Guerilla warfare, like all warfare, is logistics. It just takes different forms.
I've been following the news of the outbreaks around Iraq since the Fallujah operation, and they seem to back this theory up: except for Mosul, all the towns where violence has flared are on Wretchard's list.
What do my readers think?
Posted by Jane Galt at November 15, 2004 1:28 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound linksThe insurgents will re-occupy Fallujah within 5 months.
a) Nearly all major cities are on rivers or lakes. A major water supply is an absolute necessity for a population center.
b) Rivers are also a major transportation route.
The Belmont explanation seems reasonable enough, even if the Syrian connection is tenuous. It makes sense to build the bombs upstream and smuggle them downstream to the other cities.
At any rate, I have no idea if the analysis is correct, but it seems plausible. I hope any foreign influence is cut off as quickly as possible.
I've been reading Belmont club since the first falluja operation, and he's been right a lot more than the MSM on his predictions and interpretations. He's also gone back several times and compared predicted versus actual, which almost never happens in the MSM. His interpretations and guesses were more right than wrong.
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=IRAQ.HTM
Also,the above strategy page article seems to indicate that Mosul, which is the one outlier in wretchard's description is not so much insurgents as criminal gangs.
regards,
Joe
The insurgents will re-occupy Fallujah within 5 months. -- intimidation through the insertion of authoritative sounding numbers, or amazing wisdom? We'll see.
Wretchard's analysis made sense to me when I read them last week. As I understand it, the smuggling routes run all the way from Syria and/or Saudi Arabia to Afganistan and/or Pakistan. These routes have been in existence for many centuries. Look at Alexander the Great's conquests, the trade routes of the Byzantine Empire, and the paths that the Mongol hordes used when invading the rest of Asia and Europe--geography hasn't changed over the years.
What makes Fallujah important is mirrored in what makes Iraq strategically important in the Global War on Terror.
I've read several stories, like this one, which suggest that the terrorists in Fallujah were Syrian. Indeed, the U.S. started getting better intell from the locals recently because the remaining terrorists were not locals. There's also plenty of evidence that al-Sadr was getting backing from Iran. So the theory seems to me to be more likely to be true than not.
I'm not sure what the question is, but ... two considerations:
I find it likely there is a Syrian line of communication to the Sunni Triangle being used by Baathists and probably the Sunni/Qutb/Wahhabi Islamists. Whether that is a single straight line from al Qa'im thru Hadithah, Ramadi and Fallujah, OR it forks (or has an alternate) North to Sammara (creating a triangle instead of a "T") should be a consideration.
It is likely that a Saudi line of communication is much more constrained. It seems less likely the Shia (Iranian intel) in Southern Iraq would allow an active line of communication to strengthen Baathist/Sunni insurgents. Perhaps just satisfied there is one giving us headaches.
I think this makes an apt, if not worrisome, compainion article: Who shall rid us of these turbulent clerics?
I first started laughing at the "plot enemy strongholds on a map". Well, if we know where the enemy "strongholds" are, why didnt we bomb them? Then theres the "car bomb factories" gem. That "factory" could be as small as a single car garage. Most of these car bombs have used hi-grade explosives like those pilfered from Al Qaqah. Its kinda easy to spot a car that has its entire back seat filled with explosives. The insurgency is all over Iraq, you have car bombings in Bahgdad, mass executions of Iraqi military twenty miles from the Iranian border, you have oil pipelines sabotaged in the far South, and every major Iraqi city has daily acts of terror. The attack on Falluja was so successful acts of terror are up over twenty five percent in the rest of Iraq.
Its not just Syria financing the insurgency. All Syrias really doing is serving as a conduit for Saddams families financing of the insurgency. Our good friends the Saudis are actually the largest financiers of the insurgency. The Saudis are also the primary source of foreign fighters, with Syria and Iran right behind them. Until we destroy all the weapons depots, secure the borders, and shut off the money nothings going to change for the better in Iraq. Hey reps, how about that "four more years!" chant now?
Begbee
You are surely one of the most deserving people I can think of to be described most fittingly and mangnificently and with all the awsome provenance that comes with the title as
"TWIT of the Blogosphere"
Get Over it You Lost, Your Ideas and "Facts" Lost, Your Canditate and his Party Lost.
And we the dumb, clueless, moronic idiots WE WON.
We will win against the terrorists, just as we won against you and your self -indulgent and deluded ilk, by being right and by being ruthless with our enemies and by being smarter than they are.
The Repudiation Continues.
The rescued Syrian was the driver for two French journalists, Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot, missing since August. The journalists have not been found, but France maintains they are still alive.
A Marine officer said he found signs that at least one foreign hostage was beheaded in that room. The Marine, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not give details.
The Iraqi hostage, who had been beaten on the back with steel cables, said his tormentors were Syrian and that he thought he was in Syria until the Marines found him, the Marine said. Other militants came and went, but "The Syrians were always in charge," the Marine said.
And the Iranians wanted to help assassinate Paul Bremer.
Have you guys seen this? Little Green Footballs poster or Late German Fascist?
http://www.drmenlo.com/lgfquiz/
Makes sense to me.
It's mostly well-informed speculation, though. We'll know a lot more in a couple of months.
I love you to, the Mommy!!!!!
Anyone see the, "Hes faking being dead!!" BAMM!!!!!!!!!!"Hes not faking anymore" video yet?
Few foreigners among captured Fallujah insurgents
By Robert Burns
Associated Press
WASHINGTON — Only a tiny percentage of the more than 1,000 insurgents detained by U.S. forces in the Iraqi city of Fallujah over the past week are foreigners, a Marine officer said Monday.
Col. Michael Regner, operations chief for the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, said in a conference call with reporters at the Defense Department that 1,052 people had been detained at last count.
Of that total, he said at least 1,030 were Iraqis, meaning only about 20 were foreigners.
Regner did not give a breakdown of nationalities. On Friday, Iraqi government officials said there were 15 foreigners in detention in Fallujah, of which 10 were Iranians. There was one from Saudi Arabia, one from Sudan, one from Egypt, one from Jordan and one who might be French.
- - - - -
Although the story above says nothing about smuggling of weapons, it is yet another piece of evidence that foreign fighters make up a very small perentage of the insurgency. If Iran and Syria are aiding the rebels, it is more likely they are doing so with funds and arms or with small groups of experts, than with masses of fighters.
Hey smallestbee:
The guy was a terrorist, he was an enemy of civilization and now he's dead -- Good Riddence. The Marine deserves a medal.
You and your purile thoughts on the other hand only deserve scorn.
The Repudiation continues-- unabated!
Hey Jim:
SO WHAT?
Just because the foreigners are cowards and did not stay to fight the fact is THEY WERE HELPING THE TERRORISTS as were their governments. Thank God that we have a president who understands how this all interlocks and is knowledgable about the effective use of force. The terrorists are losing -- every day there are more of them that are DEAD ( see my comment to smallbee above). Thats the kind of terrorists I like -- dead ones- you know like Arrapus.
See todays WSJ editorial for a cogent view of the situation.
The Mommy, please enlighten me how our troops distinguished the "terrorists" from the rest of the population in Falluja? Do they have big, scarlet "T"s on their clothing? And is faking death when severly wounded and in a Mosque among the rules for engagement? Your claim of "unabated repudiation" are as false as jrs claims of victory on the Aircraft Carrier.
Begbee:
1. Is "TheMommy" supposed to be pejorative? If so, do you have a mommy? What does she think of your use of the term?
2. As to how to identify a terrorist: how about that they're shooting at US and/or Iraqi soldiers, who are handily enough wearing uniforms so as to be clearly identifiable? Is it your contention that the wounded man in the mosque had innocently shown up there to worship, in the midst of the firefight emanating from the mosque? Or are you as yet unaware that near that mosque and near that moment, at least one Marine had been killed and several wounded by tripping a booby-trapped body? Just what would you have a soldier on a sweeping mission do?
3. We Reps understand that Iraq is not a campaign strategy. You apparently do not. "Four more years" does not apply... unless, heaven help the Iraqis and, sooner or later, us, a Dem like Kerry makes it into the White House next time around and pulls a Saigon.
SmallestB or is that insignificantB?
You are beyond any ability to expain anything to you, you are so totally clueless. I don't know how old you are, but it is apparent from the drivel that spews forth from your keyboard that however old you are, you have spent that entire time working hard at being a moron. You are not worth the energy to try to impart any knowledge or wisdom about that knowledge because after all the years you have been on this earth and all the thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of words you spew out you are still exhibiting the complete cluelessness that has earned you the coveted title of:
"TWIT of the Blogosphere"
You LOST, you and your ilk will continue to lose, and the repudiation will continue and gain speed despite your degenerate left wing rantings.
But to answer just one of your insipd questions-
"...please enlighten me how our troops distinguished the "terrorists" from the rest of the population in Falluja?
You must have missed the week in which our troops warned all civillians to leave Fallujah. This was done so that the troops would not have to make those decisions. The people who remained made this decision for themselves.
See that was easy to figure out. you would be able to process information in this way if you only had a mind.
I have detemined that, although virtually everything I have read that you have posted is odious, in large part incorrect, and totally mis-interpeted, that you are completely inefective and are not worthy of the energy of a response. You are a mere fly on the dung heap of the moronic left.
You sir, are a Useless Idiot ( to coin a phrase). 'Nuff Said.
Jamie, you should mind your own god damn business, but since you want to be third "man" in, I use "The Mommy" to refer to "The Daddy" because the fools screenname suggests a hypermasculine concept of self. Its not an attack on all things female.
Jamie, provide a source for your "booby trapped" body in the same mosque reference. The videotape of the execution begins with the soldiers talking about the fact that those injured Iraqis in the mosque had been waiting to be moved to medical facilities since the previous day. The executed Iraqi was still alive, if he was a suicide bomber he would have already detonated himself. This was clearly a breach of the rules of engagement, and the casualness shown in executing this Iraqi for "faking hes dead" suggests that this was hardly an isolated incident.
The Mommy, Falluja was never evacuated. In fact, all Iraqis in Falluja were ordered to stay in their homes. It was estimated 50,000 to 70,000 Iraqi civillians stayed in Falluja. So when the troops were going door to door, how did they know who was a civilian, and who was an insurgent? Did they get "learn arabic tapes" in the month we gave the insurgents to leave Falluja?
The Mommy, I own you. You serve at my pleasure.
Insignificent b
Who the hell cares about terrorists except an anti-american idiot like you.
BTW I use the name thedaddy because I am one, I know for sure all my parts work correctly unlike yours ( your brain seems to malfunction quite regularly)
Begbee:
Not the same mosque, sir, near the mosque and proximate in time. Your requested source: "At the same time the incident was taking place in the mosque, a U.S. Marine was killed and five others were wounded when the booby-trapped body of a dead insurgent exploded." -from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6496898/ . Plus numerous sources stating that this is a tactic that has been used and is being used by the insurgents. I will provide additional sources if you like.
Let me state first that I have not seen the videotape in question; I've heard the audio (poorly) and have read transcripts, but I have few opportunities to view something so violent without my kids around. So I can't speak to how close the quarters were. But if I were an enemy of the US, had a grenade ready to deploy, and possessed the will to commit suicide for Allah, I imagine I'd wait until I could take as many enemy combatants with me as possible. In other cases involving booby-trapped bodies, the traps have been set off by moving the bodies - close contact required. As for the rules of engagement: booby-trapping bodies is clearly a breach of the rules of engagement, as is hiding in and shooting from a mosque and not wearing a uniform. Now, two (or more) wrongs don't make a right. But the first set of wrongs certainly puts a soldier in combat, which this Marine certainly was, at a disadvantage. His life and the lives of his squad were on the line, the squad was not being quiet because they had to shout to hear one another, they didn't know who would be waiting in the next room, and he himself had been wounded in the face the previous day on a similar mission by an insurgent who was playing dead (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apus_story.asp?category=1110&slug=Marine%20Shooting). What, exactly, would you have done?
See, the thing about your derogating thedaddy by calling him "themommy" is that I am a mommy, and I don't consider it a role to be ashamed of. Like it or not, your epithet attempts to tar with a broad brush. I take offense on my own account; thedaddy can take care of himself, obviously.
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