September 04, 2002
From the desk of Jane Galt:Looks like we're shipping tanks
Looks like we're shipping tanks to the Gulf. I think there's very little doubt at this point that we're going after Sadaam, and probably this fall.
I also think there's very little doubt that if it goes to congress, it will pass. Not because our reps necessarily support it. But the vulnerable Democrats, from the South and Midwest (Michigan the obvious exception) are not going to go on record as against the war, no way no how. New England, New York, and the West Coast will vote against. But everyone else will line up behind Bush out of a keen sense of survival, if nothing else.
I further think there will be more casualties than in the first Gulf War. (Which brings up an interesting point -- what do we call this one? Gulf II?) But I don't think we're talking "Quagmire". First of all, there's no Iraqi equivalent of the NVA. Second of all, there's no financial equivalent of China or Russia -- the Saudis aren't that stupid. Third of all, militarily he's in worse shape now than he was then, although he does of course have the advantage of experience, and time to plan around incompetent commanders and defections on a massive scale. And fourth of all, it's a highly fragmented tribal country currently ruled with an iron fist. I think that at the first signs that Sadaam is going to lose, his people will start losing their enthusiasm for guarding him with their bodies. History loves a winner, and historically, populations ruled by nuthatch dictators generally sell out to the conquerors as soon as the outcome becomes obvious.
In fact, I think that if we want to get any good patriotic war songs out of this we'd better start writing them now, because we won't have much time after the balloon goes up.
Posted by Jane Galt at September 4, 2002 07:54 AM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links