December 30, 2002

silhouette3.JPG From the desk of Jane Galt:

More On Lighthouses

Zimran Ahmed, who is closer to Chicago than I am, and thus more likely to be under the spell of their Evil Free Market Brain Wave Control Machine, has a much better post on lighthouses than I wrote.

To me this seems to fit perfectly well within the neo-classical economics systems. Chicago school economics is not against government regulation per se, it just feels that governments should support markets and let individuals sort it out from there, and that governments should not engage in social engineering. In the lighthouse example, private parties (the sailors) needed a two-part tariff system to create a market for a good they needed but would not otherwise be provided (lighthouses). They contracted with other private parties (ports) to arrange this, and the government supplied the legal infrastructure needed to support that market (making paying the tax mandatory).

Samuelson's public good argument had the entire population paying taxes to support lighthouses only used by sailors (which seems strange) and after 1836, the government itself started to operate lighthouses (which seems even stranger since private individuals were already doing that just fine). And perhaps most bizarrely, Daniel notes "...there are numerous accounts of "rent-seeking" behavior in lighthouses, whereby lighthouse entrepreneurs with good political connections sought to build unnecessary lighthouses in anticipation of the stream of light duties they would be allowed to extract" as if this refutes the neo-classical interpretation of what would happen in the market and seems to deny that exactly the same sort of rent-seeking would go on if the government ran lighthouses itself. Note how, in the US, states lobby for all kinds of unnecessary pork-barrel public works projects that seek only to transfer wealth from other states to their own.

I'll will also note that in 1995 in Britain, there were 56 automated lighthouses, 11 staffed lighthouses, 10 automated lightvessels, 2 automated lightfloats, 2 large automatic navigation buoys (lanbys), 414 buoys (of which 94 were unlit), 26 beacons, 62 radar or radio beacons, and 11 Decca Navigator stations. All in an age where a GPS system costs about $100. I'm not saying there would be more or less of these things if the government was not in the business of lighthouse provision and therefore had a bureaucracy invested in lighthouses, I'm just sayin'.


Which is not only decisive and succinct, but makes an important point: Chicago school economics is not, as its more ignorant critics believe, a faith in the simplistic perfect competition model you learned in Micro 101. Many, many (Lord, how many!) of the emails I get triumphantly present me with some market failure that has been well known to economists for fifty or so years, discussed, analyzed, and modeled. That's the gist of this stupid speech by Eliot Spitzer. Chicago school economics can most easily be summed up by saying "Incentives matter. . . and while markets may fail, government fails worse." Government provides perverse incentives, for example to make money by lobbying the government to take it from someone else rather than make or do something that other people want to buy.

It also, as the example of lighthouses in an age of GPS illustrates, is extremely unresponsive to change. Eventually, GPS will replace lighthouses. (I don't know if the technology is there yet.) But it will take a lot longer than in the free market, because those lighthouses have voters who work there, and Societies for the Preservation of Lighthouses, and ignorant editorialists who will declaim the need for safety long after lighthouses are necessary, and important bureaucrats with pals in the right places who will fight hard against having their agency disbanded. It is possible that lighthouses were best provided by the government (I'm still not prepared to argue that point right now.) But government services are very rigid. It's much easier to get the government to do something than to get it to stop.

That's sort of how I feel about SEC regulation. Perhaps Glass-Steagall was a model of financial brilliance. Now, however, I'd argue that it forms a barrier to entry for financial firms which has kept fees in the securities listing market outrageously, mind-bogglingly, ridiculously high -- I'm running out of adjectives for how outlandish I think investment banking compensation is, and I still can't express it. It's legalized robbery, abetted by the SEC. Undoubtedly the SEC does good things. But it also does bad things, and not just because it's underfunded or whatever the argument of the week is. I blame the SEC for the diseased culture that prevailed in parts of the industry that encouraged record IPO pops for special friends, analysts touting dog stocks, and all the rest of it. Mind you, being a Chicago gal, I think there would still be chicanery; I don't believe in the perfectability of markets or human nature. But I think that the SEC was what allowed many of these practices to become institutionalized, because it prevented newcomers from competing away the enormous financial incentives to cheat. That's why I have to laugh when people write me to tell me [insert financial regulation aimed at executive compensation, company disclosure, or what have you] must be correct and reasonable -- even John Corzine supports it! John Corzine made all of his money helping businesses comply with SEC regulations in raising money or structuring deals. Of course he's in favor of more regulation. More regulation means more little bankers beavering away earning him dividends on his Goldman stock. Not that this means he's necessarily dishonest. Curiously, almost all of us can generate a compelling belief in the truth, beauty, and good of the regulatory structures that make us lots of money. If you want a stirring speech, find a farmer and ask him to tell you how farm subsidies benefit the rest of us. If you aren't wiping away a tear or two at the end, you have no heart.

But the heart of Glass Steagall -- that we need a lot of intensely regulated firms providing us special financial services -- is not going away, even as surface forms change. Even though I haven't noticed any shortage of bad stock tips and horrible financial advice emanating from said firms, there is no significant move to change the structure, find out what rules don't work, or otherwise mess with the perogatives of the bankers and their regulators. Almost any regulation, to be removed, has to be truly dreadful, or have a wealthier and louder constituency advocating its removal than those behind it. The impetus of any agency is to do ever-more, not less. I've yet to see any regulator say "stick a fork in it -- we're done."

So there's your little dose of free market religion for the day. Tomorrow: why Jesus loves an appropriately diversified portfolio.

Posted by Jane Galt at December 30, 2002 01:07 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links
Comments

But I think that the SEC was what allowed many of these practices to become institutionalized, because it prevented newcomers from competing away the enormous financial incentives to cheat.

What the hey? Was the market more honest before the SEC showed up?

Posted by: Jason McCullough on December 30, 2002 02:27 PM

I'm only an amateur student of the period. I don't know if you can answer that question. The market was very, very different, and some of the practices that took place before Glass-Steagall we would frown on, such as pools and short corners and bear raids. But it wasn't a free-for-all either. The New York Stock Exchange didn't let you list if you lied to shareholders, and the cosy insider relationships mitigated some of the temptation to cheat that exists now, since the people you were cheating were more likely to be your friends from the club.

Overall, I'm hard put to say whether there's a substantial difference in honesty. There might be -- I'm no economic historian. But while there were more market shenanigans, there might have been less widespread fraud. (There were a lot of banks selling crap to the public in the run up to 1929, but many of them apparently believed their own advertising.)

There were, I think, some ways in which the system was better. The primacy of moneyed principal shareholders mitigated the principal-agent problem, which our SEC is still having trouble cracking. And the bankers expected to make their money on investments, rather than transaction fees. You did not have the ability for moderately talented young people to amass vast fortunes by putting through a trade or working on a merger. To get rich, they had to own a piece of a growing company. So I think in many ways the incentives are better. There was more insider dealing. But because the players were known, it was harder to get away with than you'd think -- possibly harder than now, since it's mathematically apparent in market activity that insider dealing is still very much alive and well, even without the titillating Martha Stewart type scandals.

There's possibly more disclosure. But the small investors who made prices in the bubble markets didn't know how to read the disclosures, so is there a material difference?

Posted by: Jane Galt on December 30, 2002 03:08 PM

Well, it was a completely different market, yes.

Why we're on this: I just remembered that I've never seen a good explanation of why mutual funds charge you a percentage of *assets* instead of a percentage of *profits.*

It's a wierd incentive. You'd assume, what with their giant positions and ability to ride out short-term dislocations, that one of them could clean the clock of the rest with a profit-based revenue plan. The current situation, where they charge you to consistently fall short of index fund performance, is pretty odd.

Posted by: Jason McCullough on December 30, 2002 04:16 PM

From their perspective it's a winner -- they get all the upside, and still profit on the downside.

I'm not sure that you could get a mutual fund to work on profits -- five years like the 1973-1978 period and they'd be out of business. Besides, they still wouldn't participate in your down side. You also might give them perverse incentives to churn.

Posted by: Jane Galt on December 30, 2002 04:43 PM

It might have been nice to have pointed out that I have a *specific disclaimer* at the top of my post pointing out that there was no general or specific argument in favour of public goods in there! I never said a dang word in favour of or against "Chicago economics"; my post was about bloody lighthouses!

In all seriousness, I think that Zimran was talking at cross purposes to me. I have no real horse in the race of government provision of public goods; I'm concerned with these things, when I care about them at all, on grounds of equality, not economic efficiency. My simple point was that Coase was dead wrong in trying to claim the lighthouses as an example of Coasian negotiation. Zimran actually repeats one of my points (about rent-seeking), thinking that I hold the diametrically opposite view to the one I do hold, which I suppose says something about my skills as a writer.

I think Zimran's numbers are a little off; there are *no* manned lighthouses in the UK anymore, and GPS systems cost quite a bit more than $100 in 1995. But frankly, I think that it's stretching things a bit to claim that the voting power of the lighthouse-keepers' lobby was ever going to be a massive power in the land. I also doubt whether GPS will necessarily take the place of lighthouses; an unmanned light is pretty cheap to run and it's a decent failsafe if the GPS breaks down.

Finally, in the context of financial services regulation, it is quite bizarre to conclude: "I've yet to see any regulator say "stick a fork in it -- we're done." What about the massive experiments in deregulation of financial services between 1982 and 1995?

For my part, I think that the changes needed in the financial sector go far beyond mere regulation ...

Posted by: dsquared on December 30, 2002 04:51 PM

Jason:
I don't have a good answer on the "why," but fees based on return are currently prohibited by federal law. I think the idea was along the lines of Megan's response; a half-assed attempt to mitigate incentives to churn and otherwise take actions in the interests of the investment adviser rather than the investor.

Posted by: Dr. Manhattan on December 30, 2002 05:21 PM

Wow, I didn't know they were banned. Why would paying out strictly on profits result in an incentive to churn, though? Asset goes up 20%, they get a cut of the increase; I'm not sure why they'd need to sell anything.

I'm not sure that you could get a mutual fund to work on profits -- five years like the 1973-1978 period and they'd be out of business. Besides, they still wouldn't participate in your down side.

Well, the current situation does a pretty shitty job of beating the market.

Posted by: Jason McCullough on December 30, 2002 05:38 PM

> But frankly, I think that it's stretching things a bit to claim that the voting power of the lighthouse-keepers' lobby was ever going to be a massive power in the land.

All they have to do is be one of 51 groups, each representing 1% who are willing to log-roll and they are a decisive power.

At least in the US, the dominant political parties consist of such aggregated minorities.

Posted by: Andy Freeman on December 30, 2002 05:47 PM

I haven't checked the legislative history, but I think there was a fear of investment advisers designing "heads-I-win-tails-you-lose" performance fees at the investor's expense.

Posted by: Dr. Manhattan on December 30, 2002 05:58 PM

The reason Coase failed to show that lighthouses were an example of Coasian negotiation is that Coase was not trying to show that lighthouses were an example of Coasian negotiation. What he was trying to do in the article was argue for less reliance on abstract theory in economics, and more study of actual institutions. From his concluding section:

"Despite the extensive use of the lighthouse example in the literature, no economist, to my knowledge, has ever made a comprehensive study of lighthouse finance and administration. The lighthouse is simply plucked out of the air to serve as an illustration."

Posted by: Paul Zrimsek on December 30, 2002 06:11 PM

A note on "rent-seeking" -

It seems to me that while there are possiblities for rent-seeking behavior in both the private contractor and government run models, the potential opportunities are far vaster in the private contractor case.

Under the "old" (pre 1834 or whatever) system, a private business got a right from the crown to to collect money from every ship (or at least every ship that put in at port in England). This was an open opportunity for the politically connected to either build unecessary lights, or build the needed ones in bad locations (why go through the expense of building out on the rocks? Put it closer in to town...) One could have a fairly large continuous stream of income - a pretty big prize.

In the government case, what are the opportunities for graft or pork? The people who build lighthouses, of course - but I doubt that it would be a big enough job to be worth bothering for. The local communities - but it's hard to see people clamoring for a light that wasn't really necessary, in the same way they might a road or a bridge.

So it seems (to me, anyway) that aids to navigation (including, ahem, GPS - and personally, if the UK does decide to do away with some of it's lighthouses, I think at least some of the savings should be remitted to the US treasury...) are a clear case where the private sector COULD provide it, but a government agency, on balance, does a better job. Which is what Davies (and Samuelson) were saying in the first place. It's also what the UK decided back in 1834 - the private sector was NOT "doing a perfectly fine job", as the history shows. This basic truth seems to so upset UC types as to reduce them to a comic display of hemming and hawing and irrelevant quibbling. Fun stuff, though...

Posted by: jimbo on December 30, 2002 06:18 PM

Why are you writing about Glass-Steagall, when the act was repealed a few years ago?

Posted by: Frank C on December 30, 2002 07:23 PM

>>All they have to do is be one of 51 groups, each representing 1% who are willing to log-roll and they are a decisive power.

Yeh but ... think about the numbers, man. 1% of the population of the UK is 600,000 people. I doubt that there have ever been more than about a thousand lighthouse keepers in the UK.

Posted by: dsquared on December 31, 2002 03:05 AM

If you have ever navigated you will realize the value of visual aids to navigation. GPS units can fail and a visual check is always necessary. Nighttime at sea can be very disorienting. I remember entering a private marina one night when a light on a breakwater was out and it made the final approach down the channel to the entrance to the creek difficult (the marina was farther down the creek). Yes, GPS placed us in the right location, but being fifty feet off course would put us aground. Finally getting a visual on the light stanchion and lining it up with the range light was necessary to complete the approach. It isn't always a clear case of dollars and cents in this wonderful world - there is always that mysterious x that can not be properly quantified (such as the value of my neck to me).

Posted by: Mike Orris on December 31, 2002 05:46 PM

Glass Steagall wasn't repealed; many of the noticeable features, such as the divide between commercial and investment banking, were undone by later legislation. But the SEC and the rest of the regulatory apparatus created by the group of legislation usually referred to under the rubric of Glass Steagall, remain yet.

Posted by: Jane Galt on January 1, 2003 10:35 PM

Mike:

The subject in question is not lighthouses at ports; there's a mechanism for paying for those, under hte port fees. The lighthouses under discussion are the non-port lighthouses used to steer and warn.

Posted by: Jane Galt on January 1, 2003 10:36 PM

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