Asymmetrical Information

Although I lean towards the theory that he's dead and buried under tons of collapsed cave, there are two other possibilities that come to mind:

1. He's alive but in such a bad state (perhaps not even coherent) that showing him would be demoralizing, or

2. He's cut and run. Shaved his beard, changed his name and his nose, and is retired from public life and praying nobody ever finds him.

In any case, I'm pretty sure Osama has gone out-of-business.

What Steve said.

Steve,
You make a good point. But while I agree that he's either dead, or fled, or else maimed to the point of uselessness, I'm less than sure that he's *entirely* out of business. Don't forget that Owen Glendower remained a factor in Wales long after his rebellion had been crushed for no better reason than his body had hever been found. Likewise, the "sleeping king" legend is a recurring motif in folklore (Although I can't at the moment recall any time when such a motif was successful!). Tapes like these seem to me an obvious effort to keep his name alive in a similar manner. Whether or not such an attempt succeeds remains to be seen.

- S.P.M.

Osama doesn't need to convince his followers that he's still alive - blind fanaticism doesn't need much in the way of proof.

What if just wants us to think he's dead?

"The Greatest Trick the Devil Ever Pulled Was Convincing The World He Didn't Exist".

There was one sort of sleeping King who came back from no-where to take control of his people and launch a new war.

Richard the Lion-Heart. Locked away in a prison for years.

Actually Napolean did it too.

If one is going to speculate with any degree of accuracy on these sort of things it is rather important to reconsider the conception of rationality to be used, both from a societal and individual point of view.

Assuming that he's not dead, the behavior suggested as most plausible by Steve is what I would consider to be the most rational as well—for the average westerner. Don't forget that while your belief system is (probably) lacking ideas leading to suicide, other's may not.

It's equally possible he doesn't believe his teachings and simply uses convinced followers. But that doesn't mean we can disregard in analysis his clearly stated belief in terrorism and suicide. He could just be waiting to go down in flames as grandly as possible.

"Martyrs" have had success motivating those in the Christian church at other points in history, have they not?

Don't give MTV any ideas.

SPM:
Don't forget that Owen Glendower remained a factor in Wales long after his rebellion had been crushed for no better reason than his body had hever been found. Likewise, the "sleeping king" legend is a recurring motif in folklore (Although I can't at the moment recall any time when such a motif was successful!)

Boris Gudinov was overthrown by someone posing as the prince he'd killed. (This is my recollection of the plot of the opera and need have no relationship to actual Russian history.)

To quibble with Mr. Johnston:

Martyrs still motivate many Christians today, especially, but not limited to, the early martyrs. It is the strength of character with which a St. Simon or even a Gertrude Stien meets their end that motivates me to climb out of bed some mornings, and which shames me into regretting every time I say something nasty about the poor driver in front of me in traffic.

I can only pray that if the opportunity presents itself, I may also be strong enough to be a martyr for Christ. Before 9/11, I'd say that it wasn't a likely happening, living in America and all. Now I'm not nearly so sure.

Oops, Edith Stien.

Who knows where Gertie wound up?

Whether he be a martyr or not, the sad fact of his fanatisicm dictates that if he is rehabbing somewhere, he will strive to come back. This has been his whole life, with a directive mandating the destruction of the West. One can only hope that he has been split asunder, in a cave where his last moments were nothing of calm and peace.

And of course - there's a difference in the definition of martyr.

Christian martyrs do not seek death, but they will accept it rather than give up their faith.

Islamic Martyrs seek death as a way of proving their faith.

Franklin Jennings:

I did not mean to say that Bin Laden is a martyr or to slight martyrs of the Christian faith in any way. My point, though obviously not lucid in my first attempt, was that the death of an individual can lend support for their ideas. Thus a bit more rationality is sent in the direction of death for a cause.

What makes me most suspicious of the authenticity of this video is the timing of its release. If bin Laden had been sending out new videos every few months since 2001, then there'd be no special reason to wonder about this one. The long gap since the last video, though, seems very puzzling. Why not a video release in September 2002, at least?

For this reason, I tend to agree with Steve (and others) above, that bin Laden is either dead, incapacitated, or so hard-pressed that he can't stop to do new footage, and that this video was cobbled together from some old footage with a new voiceover.

Does anyone else think that bin Laden's beard seems too dark? Do they sell Just For Men in Afghanistan (or Pakistan)?

Certainly, and point well-taken. Also, the Yeti makes a great point.

I didn't suspect you of degrading Christian Martyrdom, only of ignoring its impact on us today.

Like many others, my best bet is that bin Laden is dead or incapacitated.

However, given a choice between bin Laden surviving and al-Zawahiri, the number 2 guy on the videotape, I'll take bin Laden. There are countless numbers of fanatics who wish to harm America. Bin Laden may be inspiring to some extent, but his absence is hardly going to change the attitudes of many fanatics.

Al-Zawahiri, on the other hand, is a terrorist with extensive experience in the practical, logistical aspects of conducting terrorist attacks. Put simply, he is much more dangerous. That he is taking a personal interest in striking at our soldiers in Iraq should chill us all. It should also renew the question of whether we shouldn't have taken care of him prior to going after Saddam.

Why can't we do a video of Osama, where we take pieces of meat and toss these cubes around. Maybe, some pieces of pig skin, to give a human touch ... and claim that there's a clairvoyant who knows exactly what Osama would be saying, if we could only find his lips?

We should also consider the possibility that the video was not for us at all. Propaganda may be secondary. The primary goal may be the dissemination of coded messages to the faithful.

And yeah, I think he's dead, too. I don't think we killed him with bombs. I think we forced him so far underground that he was unable to seek medical care for his kidney problem.

I'm sorry to butt in, but this discussion would be hilarious if it were not so sad.

Ossama is alive because your government wants him that way - don't you people have *any* decent news sources? (err .. no .. not Fox or CNN)

How else do they justify their war-without-end and take your attention away from the fact that about 10,000 Iraqis have been "liberated" (i.e. killed) so far, with 1,000 wounded every week according to medical records of major hospitals, not to mention the 6-10,000 GIs who have been wounded so far.

You seriously have no idea just how ridiculous the kind of views expressed above are to the rest of the world. What makes me want to cry is that the people running your country actualy wrote their plans down in advance (PNAC docs, et al) and yet you *still* think that anybody who believes their intentions were less than democratic is a conspiracy theorist. Goebels couldn't have wished for a more willing audience.

Please don't misunderstand me - I wish no harm on the US at all - like most Europeans I just want to live in peace without my daily life being threatened by the fallout from your military aggression.

dsl angebot dsl dsl dsl tarife dsl flatrate isdn xxl dsl bestellen dsl dsl flatrate dsl dsl dsl angebote 1&1

great site

Comments are Closed.