Asymmetrical Information

I assume the idea that 911 took two years to organize (past training the pilots) is a polite fiction meant to calm people who really don't want to think about how easy it would be to do something like that (and maybe to try to discourage the more underachieving terrorist wannabe's). If it really does take so long, then part of that might be finding people who won't have second thoughts at the last minute. People who can actually do something like 9/11 don't grow on trees. Sad to say, that's probably our best hope in avoiding another one. (Palestinian suicide bombers are a different case for a number of different reasons).

I'd say the Spanish attacks are either a splinter group of ETA (they've taken a lot of hits in the last few years which might make them more desperate or even less humane) or radical Islamic slime. No way to tell anything more at present.

I know a little about this.

9/11 took so long because of the training, passports, planning, studying security, practice runs, etc.

This attack isn't very complicated, other than moving around that much explosives. It would take time to find bombers, have them blend into a community to avoid suspicion, get the explosives, build the bombs, study the target, coordinate the attack.

Terrorism is more complicated than you might think, but it isn't rocket science.

The biggest expense in both time and money is living expenses. Any time someone new moves in, you keep an eye on them. The terrorists have to blend in, develop a routine, be certain they aren't being watched, etc. All the while, they have to make rent on time and buy food, etc.

I think the reason it took so long to plan the 9/11 attacks is that they had to find people (who are sufficiently devoted to the cause), get them into the country, and then get them trained to fly aircraft. They also had to know at least a little hand-to-hand combat in case a passenger tried to resist. (Of course, when the majority of passengers did so, as on the flight that crashed in Pennsylvania, this didn't help them much.) Then they needed to find flights that fit all their criteria (nearly empty cross-country flights) that all took off at nearly the same time.

They probably also needed fake documents to get into the country, since at least several hijackers were on watchlists.

Pasted from my post at Sheila's blog:

"My guess is that ETA is involved - they have not always been shy about civilian casualties - but they had help in the form of logistics, finances, and demolitions expertise from al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has been targeting "3rd party" nations that supported the US-led coalition in Iraq, because the US is a hard target. Spain is a terrorist-friendly, soft target - ETA already had the underground infrastructure to host "guest terrorists" - and they were prominent supporters of the war in Iraq."

Clark Staten says it looks like the bombs were on the trains - possible suicide bombers? That would be another very strong al Qaeda link.

On the other hand, the Spanish busted an ETA cell a week ago with a large quantity of explosives, and I believe they learned from interrogation that something big was about to happen. Also the Spanish police reportedly dismantled several other bombs this morning.

Al Qaeda supported by ETA is my guess...

A little more:

Sky News reported this afternoon that an Arab-language tape with "Koranic verses" was found in a truck along with bomb detonators near Madrid, according to the Spanish Interior Minister. This report is very similar to the arrest 29 Feb of two ETA terrorists driving a van with over 500 kgs of explosives, also near Madrid (from Reuters).

ETA has denied the attacks and al Qaeda has claimed responsibility. This is the work of al Qaeda.

It's not a matter of dropping off the bomb as much as it is gathering the materials to construct one that has the capacity to do large-scale damage. Most governments keep very tight controls on the movements of these materials. In the U.S., even the smallest of components that might be used for explosives and weaponry require a license from the State Department to move out of the country. It's easy enough to make a small bomb out of generic materials (I once read a story about a prison inmate who made one using nothing more than a zipper and a book of matches), but gathering the equipment need to construct the ones that made today's unfortunate headlines takes a little more specialized materials and craft.

One of the things about al Qaeda is that their operations often result in the death of the terrorists. The terrorists, who know they are going to die at the end, are often from not-so-priveliged backgrounds. So the al Qaeda leadership says "we will finance you to live in western decadence for months or years, building your cover, training, and preparing, and it's all OK because at the end you will be a great martyr". It's a good deal for a suicide bomber - several months or years of living like a great satan on someone else's expense account, all the while playing undercover terrorist secret agent. Many al Qaeda terrorists never get around to actually carrying out their attacks - they just milk terrorist corporate headquarters for the per diem as long as they can.

Political groups, like ETA, generally want to stay alive, and aren't nearly as well financed. They want to make their political statements on a timetable and get back to their day jobs. At al Qaeda, being a terrorist IS your day job.

Like Emily says, obtaining explosives and constructing bombs requires some infrastructure and expertise, but al Qaeda has plenty of both. ETA has a moderate amount of both, and access to the international terrorist network to get more. And a lot of the preparation is low cost, but high risk - the casing of the target, rehearsing of the actual attack, moving the explosives into the staging area, etc. If someone gets suspicious at that stage, the terrorists may have to start back at square one on another target, or they may get picked up. This happens a lot.

Often the reason it takes a lot of time and effort to set up these attacks has more to do with human nature than the strict logistics requirements.

Given that Bin Laden has publicly denounced the Moors being driven from Andalusia five centuries ago, it wouldn't necessarily require modern Spain's support of U.S. policies to trigger this event. Vienna could be a target as well for this band of murderers.

I am considering that this happened on the 11th. Today is six months exactly between September 11ths. The Bali bombing happened in Indonesia on in the early morning hours of the 12th of October, which was the 11th throughout most of the world. Dunno what the deal is with that number, but it is the case.

As many have noted, this is unlike ETA, but like AQ. That does not mean ETA or anyone else is not capable of stealing AQ’s MO, but it is in fact the case. I think there is a “common goals” link here if nothing else, much like Iraq and North Korea.

Or, it could be AQ all the way. All speculation must remain just that for the next 48 hours or so.

"It's a good deal for a suicide bomber - several months or years of living like a great satan on someone else's expense account, all the while playing undercover terrorist secret agent. Many al Qaeda terrorists never get around to actually carrying out their attacks - they just milk terrorist corporate headquarters for the per diem as long as they can."

I wonder how many al Queda terrorists just sort of disappear when they get the orders to strike, after having milked terrorist corporate headquarters for as long as they could. That might figure into the apparent difficulty in pulling off a seemingly simple strike.

The Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades also claimed to have perpetrated the recent Northeast blackout. And, the bombs were apparently made with titadine, which the ETA stole from a factory in 1999 and which they've used before. Links here.

I realize the blog-o-sphere's collective knee has jerked, but I wouldn't assume this isn't ETA just yet.

Given that Bin Laden has publicly denounced the Moors being driven from Andalusia five centuries ago, it wouldn't necessarily require modern Spain's support of U.S. policies to trigger this event. Vienna could be a target as well for this band of murderers.

Will, that's a good point about Spain (or all Iberia). But as for Vienna, my recollection is that the Muslims never actually conquered it, just laid siege a couple of times. (This page says the Ottoman Turks laid siege in 1529 and again in 1683.) Am I missing something, or do you have some other reason for thinking Vienna a likely target?

Someone ought to check my math, but I believe that if it weren't for leap year, today would be the 911th day since 9/11.

"That's why donating to the Red Cross is the right response right now -- it's a good thing to do no matter who was behind this."

Feeding the NGO-Charity Industial Complex isn't the answer. If you can't give the money directly to one of the victims you're better off not sending it.

Maybe one of the Spanish bloggers can get in touch with a local relief organization.

While I very much agree with the idea of supporting Spain in the aftermath of this attack, I'm not sure the Red Cross is the best way to do so. IIRC, they got millions in donations after 9/11 but delayed disbursing any funds for many months. At least, my recollection.

I donated to the Roman Catholic order of priests Opus Dei instead the Red Cross. I have a US contact in the order that told me they were collecting to provide relief for families.

I'm going over to the Spanish consulate in Chicago to deliver some flowers tomorrow. I'm grateful for the support the Spanish government has been of the United States and the War on Terrorism. Mutual grief is in order. Spain is in my prayers.

P.J., Bin Laden has previously denounced the Ottoman defeats at Vienna. I don't know if it makes Vienna a likely target, but Bin Laden is quite clearly a nut, which is not to be confused with being easy to thwart on a tactical level. A nut can be very intelligent at executng his tactics, and if this murderous nut is truly bothered that the Ottomans didn't subjugate the non-Muslims of Vienna, who knows what he might think is the correct tactical response, some 300 hundred-plus years later?

What I don't get is why Instapundit makes a big point of telling everyone how to flood offices with flowers instead of telling his readers how to donate to the Spanish Blood Transfusion Society or something similar. Y'know, something useful.

cause, um donating blood (or cash to a blood donation charity), etc tends to be not useful ...

whereas flowers and such serve as a show of support, viewable in media... you need to wait a few days/weeks to be able to find out where you can help most, especially from overseas to a developed country

Planning takes a long time and money not because of the immense complications, but because it's very difficult to organize something this patently evil- you have to be very careful and slow to make sure that you don't approach someone to be involved who may tell on you. I agree, it doesn't seem so complicated, but if you think about how you would round up 4 or 10 or 15 people who would agree to actually commit some act like this, it would probably take you a long time. At least, I hope it would... I hope that you don't know many people who would do this!

Well, Jane, to hopefuly provide at least a partial answer to your question

"...why does it take so many resources to mount this sort of attack?"

the unfortunate truth seems to be that it really DOESN'T.

The Madrid bombings seem to have been carried out in a dead-simple fashion: the bombs were carried onto the trains and left there in rush-hour crowds: unlike 9/11 - with its elaborate system of terrorist teams with flight training seizing aircraft - the Madrid horror probably needed no more planning than an analysis of the train schedules, some parcelling out of the bombs, and a team of (12? 13?) willing to carry them on.
I'm not sure Spy and CW are on the right track with their references to "blending in" and "cover"as being a problem for this kind of operation: Madrid is a big city: its train stations are big and busy places: once the terrorist "team" is recruited in the first place, their being able to blend with a crowd is probably a given.

The really frightening thing about mass attacks on civililan targets like these is to realize how simple it really is to execute them: one can only wonder why there have not been more.

I'm sorry Jay C, but the idea that it doesn't take a lot of resources to carry out this kind of attack is balderdash. You've glossed over the very elements that make it difficult. For example:

"...some parcelling out of the bombs..." Where did the bombs come from? Ordered online at www.terrorist.com? Try this mental exercise -- imagine you were trying to procure a significant amount of explosives, enough to wipe out many, many people. How would you do it without getting caught?

Please show your work and not just an answer -- i.e. "I'd get it on the black market" is not good enough, please explain where you would find the black market, how you would place your order, and how you would pay for it. If you say "I'd find it through my contacts", please explain how you got those contacts. Also please explain where you got the money.

Part 2: imagine that instead of being an upstanding citizen with a clean record trying to accomplish the above, you're an illegal alien living under a false ID in a foreign land, with no steady salary to support yourself. For extra credit, explain how you got your fake ID and how you crossed the border.

"...a team of 12?13? willing to carry them out..." Where did you find these people? A classified ad maybe: "Help wanted, bombers, must like rail travel, willing to suicide a plus"? Again, as a mental exercise, try to walk through the process that would be required to find 12 or 13 people willing to take part in your plot. Remember, if a single one gets captured the plot is blown, so please explain how you maintain secrecy and insure loyalty. Also don't forget, most of your team don't have day jobs either so you need to pay for their rent, food, clothes, transportation, cell phones and other needs while the plot is being set up. As many of your most likely candidates will be on government watch lists, please explain how you avoid any monitoring of your communications by police or intelligence agencies.

Twelve people walking onto trains with bombs isn't very hard. It's getting the 12 people together and getting them the bombs in the first place that tends to be the hard part.

A bombing certainly requires signficant logistical effort, but I share Jane's reaction to hearing that the 9/11 terrorists took two years to plan their attack.

Once they're in the country (even if they had to get false papers, is that that hard? And weren't some of them here legally?) they needed 20 boxcutters and a flight schedule.

Flying lessons? If they were going to land and walk away, sure, that would take training, but crashing into a building? My five year old does that routinely on Flight Simulator (OK, no rudder pedals, but on the other hand, we're talking about an adult, too). So, I'm also unclear on what took two years. What am I missing?

If it were that easy everybody would own one. As a long time follower of news from Israel, I am always struck by the number of "work accidents" that I read about. This is in an area where they have been building bombs for years.

DRB: Try this mental exercise -- imagine you were trying to procure a significant amount of explosives, enough to wipe out many, many people. How would you do it without getting caught?

Make the main explosive charge out of ANFO: Ammonium Nitrate fertilizer mixed with a little Fuel Oil. ANFO is powerful yet quite stable against accidental ignition.

Make the detonator charge out of TATP: triacetone triperoxide. It's trivial to make with acid, acetone, and the hydrogen peroxide you get at the drug store. (Chemists using peroxide have to be careful not to make it by accident.) TATP is moderately sensitive to accidental ignition, so care is required.

Use a shotgun shell to set off the TATP.

DRB: Please show your work and not just an answer -- i.e. "I'd get it on the black market" is not good enough, please explain where you would find the black market, how you would place your order, and how you would pay for it.

Wal Mart + a hundred bucks + careful work = bomb.

That works if you're trying to reproduce the McVeigh or WTC-1 bomb and can fill the back of a panel truck, but a container of well-mixed fertilizer and fuel oil sufficient to cause mass devastation doesn't easily slip onto something like a passenger train. A briefcase filled with platic or nitroglycerine would more than do the trick but first you do have to procure a quantity of the stuff.

A laundry or duffel bag with 20 kg of ANFO would really ruin your day.

A briefcase filled with platic or nitroglycerine would more than do the trick...

Good gord, that's enough to make an anti-tank mine look puny. A little high explosive goes a looooong way.

So would, say, four to eight of those bags on a train reasonably be capable of killing more than a handful of people? Not to mitigate their deaths, which would still be horrific and gruesome, but the question was the accessibility of mass terrorism ("many, many people").

BTW "filled" was a relative term, the point being that a very small and innocuous device like a briefcase could, with plastic or nitro, potentially bring that kind of mass devastation but the components are thankfully a little harder to access.

AFAIK, the other problem with AMFO is that it has a fairly obvious smell to it. You don't want people asking "What's this duffel bag doing under this chair unattended, and why does it smell like diesel?".

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that nitroglycerine is fairly easy to make if you can break into a highschool chem lab over the weekend and steal some stuff(or perhaps even more easily than that). Plastique, dynamite, and the rest are harder, but nitro's relatively easy. I sure as hell wouldn't want to be carrying a briefcase of it around(it's VERY volatile), but it would work.

But yeah, give me ten grand and a reason and I bet I could cause truly awesome amounts of devastation before they caught me. Head down to the US, pick up a couple of guns in the states with the most lax laws, head back up here, find some relatively isolated houses, knock on the door, and shoot anyone who answers. Light off car gas tanks randomly(just to cause damage, not to kill). While you're in the highschool chem lab getting the stuff, open all the gas taps, and toss their sodium metal into a sink full of water before you go(and run like hell!). Toss some sort of poison in those big soup containers you see in some cafeterias(although that brings up the problem of getting it). Use some of the above comments on making bombs, and toss them around randomly. Or even just use the old "Javex in the toilet" method, or that other combination of cleaners that makes chlorine gas. And of course, mix up your methods so they can't tie them all together easily.

And that was just off the top of my head. Scared yet? :D

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