July 09, 2004

silhouette3.JPG From the desk of Mindles H. Dreck:

The Pre-emptive Precautionary Principle

Dan Darling hits the nail on the head (hat tip to our commenter 'Average Joe'):

Suffice it to say that there is more than enough evidence available to support any given conclusion that one might desire to entertain concerning any number of complex issues, like say Iraq and al-Qaeda. The problem as far as policy-makers or the broader intelligence community are concerned then, comes to the issue of making a judgement call. Unfortunately, given the charged political atmosphere that exists within Washington these days, what is all too frequent an occurence is that the people who lose the policy debate have a nasty way of going to the press in order to receive a sympathetic airing of the dissenting view to the general public.

Dan's right. When working with intelligence it is simply unreasonable to expect 'beyond a reasonable doubt' certainty. We will always be operating with incomplete information and tremendous uncertainty. The conversion of these uncertainties into "Lies" and partisan rhetoric, is a somewhat laudable loophole of our liberalism that networks like Al Qaeda and kleptocracies like the former Iraq or Syria can drive a truck through.

Operating in uncertainty inevitably raises the 'precautionary principle' - a willingness to make dramatic and painful changes, or incur significant costs to avoide consequences without ironclad evidence or causality. Consider the following issues:












Event/ProblemPrecautions and cost
1
pollution and potential man-made contributions to global warming

Employment, efficiency, mobility of population
2
concentration of economic power in private hands; pricing and barriers to entry

efficiency, economic freedom, incentives
3
Children born into circumstances with poor chance of success; life-changing accidents in youth
abortion
4
potential unkown environmental effects of genetically engineered crops
Food costs, efficiency, starvation
5
Deterioration of marriage, unstable homes for children, low birthrates

Discrimination against new social structures such as gay marriage
6
Suffering repeated attacks and regional instability from a transnational fundmanentalist terrorist movement residing primarily in, but not officially supported by a group of failed kleptocratic states suppressing or distracting internal rebellion.
War; mistakes and innocent victims, violating U.S. norms of justice such as "innocent until proven guilty"; economic costs of increased regional instability, cost to taxpayers, 'crowding out' of private sector activities by government expansion
Please note that some of these events or effects are stipulated; In some cases, such as gay marriage, I don't really see connections between the cost to mitigate and the event.

At present, the republican coalition would be more likely to invoke 'precautionary principles' in the case of 5 and 6 than in the first four. Democrats are more sympathetic to precautionary principles in items 1 to 3. Four, I believe, really belongs to the fringe anti-globo movement of the left. The anarcho-libertarian view might not allow for precautionary principles at all (look for a comment suggesting that is why that is the only 'consistent' philosophy and a subsequent discussion on the merits of that consistency).

I continue to feel that item 6 is unique. It is the only issue where the problem and the actors' intent are aligned - these people are trying to kill us in large numbers. Furthermore, the actors understand the obstacles we face in eradicating them and use those legalistic obstacles to increase our level of uncertainty.

Unaddressed in much of the political rancor is the fact that "pre-emptive" and precautionary are closely related. Precautions involve forecasting and uncertainty. It's a cheap point to call that lying.

Somewhat off topic, the bit of Mylroie evidence that gets to me, given my proximity to both WTC attacks, is the bit about Khalid Mohammed and Ramzi Yousef having their identities laundered in Iraq-controlled Kuwait. That is about as official as Iraq would dare to be in supporting Al Qaeda.

Posted by Mindles H. Dreck at July 9, 2004 10:07 AM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links
Comments

"Furthermore, the actors understand the obstacles we face in eradicating them and use those legalistic obstacles to increase our level of uncertainty."

I wouldn't go that far. The actors suffer from bounded rationality as much as we do. Hence OBLs apparent belief that the US would not respond decisively to 9/11. Opponents of the coallition are using heuristics to determine what we will and will not do, e.g. attacks of increasing seriousness by AQ leading up to 9/11 each followed by an ineffectual US response.

Insurgents in Iraq know, from experience, that we don't like to use wholesale violence in civilian areas. So they use them to shield their own fighters. I submit that they don't have a clue as to why our troops are operating under those ROE.

A minor point, but it is important not to overestimate your enemies.

Posted by: george on July 9, 2004 11:03 AM

MHD - please expand on this.

This is a good beginning to a post, but I'd like to see more development of the idea presented.

Posted by: mcw on July 9, 2004 11:14 AM

In general, I think the disagreement between left and right on all but #3 is whether the costs/precautions are greater than the cost of not performing them, which is largely your point.

However, #3 is a bit of a red herring. First, other precautions beside abortion are available. And, more importantly what one side views as a surgical procedure the other side views as murder. This more not a disagreement about cost, but ethics.

Posted by: Mark Olson on July 9, 2004 11:46 AM

Just a test...

Posted by: begbee on July 9, 2004 11:51 AM

mcw - fair enough, I wanted to get it down so I could refer to it elsewhere. I also think Dan's post is a good one so 'read the whole thing'.


George - It strikes me that we're in agreement. How do your points contradict mine about 'legalistic obstacles' other than to provide an example of an obstacle we would call humane and they would call legalistic or trivial.

Begbee- test of what?

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 9, 2004 12:11 PM

This principle doesnt apply to Iraq because this administration had already made up its mind. We know from both Oneill and Clarke that this administration set its crosshairs on Iraq from the beginning of their term. Both Oneill and Clarke were Bush appointees there from the start, and they both write of incredible administration pressure to find a reason to attack Iraq prior to 911. After 911, Clarke sent a report to Rumsfeld that found no Iraqi participation in 911, and it was sent back him after Rumsfeld wrote 'wrong answer' on it. The Vulcans wanted Iraq from day 1, and there was alot of conflict between Powell and Rumsfeld on this war, with Wolfowitz and Rice supporting Rumsfeld. Today the senate report of their investigation of the CIA was released, and again we hear of incredible pressure by the administration on the CIA to find reason to attack Iraq. In fact, this administration released their own intelligence conclusions to the press before even recieving the CIAs conclusions on the same issues. You cant find mitigating circumstance when the people that errored made up their minds prior to reading the evidence. Just as with Moores movie, not seeing evidence by sticking your head in the sand doesnt change the facts.

Im not an enviromentalist and I sure dont embrace Kyoto(sp). I do think its pretty stupid to keep buying these poor mileage SUVs with all the misery oil is causing, both for Americans at the pump, and the people of the Persian Gulf.

All the family values as related to a childs performance is garbage. Western Europe is a much more open society, theres similar divorce rates, less church attendance, and shock! horror! smut on regular TV, yet their kids run circles around ours in scholastic testing. But then European children must pass national standardized testing in order to advance.

I do believe in abortion rights, and for the most part Im a social liberal.

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 12:17 PM

Mindless D, I was just checking if I could post before writing that stuff.

As to the issues in the graph I havent commented on-

I believe that the income tax on the highest brackets should be raised substantially. We are near the rear of the pack in standard of living among western democracies because we have the lowest taxes on the uppermost brackets of any western democracy. Beyond that, we have a war and occupation to pay for, so we cut taxes? What happened to the rep defeciet hawks that led on Newties contract on America?

Im all for genetically altered crops that have passed scientific scruiteny. Im all for harvesting stem cells from aborted fetuses. Look at where science has brought us in the past 100 years. There is no bad science, only the bad application of science by irresponsible people, and it doesnt happen nearly as often as the far left would have you believe.

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 12:30 PM
This principle doesnt apply to Iraq because this administration had already made up its mind.
Wrong even if stipulated. Even if the administration used a faulty reasoning process, that doesn't mean their conclusion isn't correct.

To me, there was plenty of evidence, much of it pre-dating 9/11, that Iraq was supporting terrorism (much of it presented by your nemesis Deoxy in an earlier post). The fact that Iraq's clear fingerprints could not be found on 9/11 despite reasonable suspicions, does not meant that replacing the regime wouldn't damage terrorists or their prospects. Some of the individuals Iraq has clearly protected or assisted are connected to one or both WTC attacks - Khalid Mohammed, Abdul Rahman Yasin.

Iraq's connections to terrorism were touted by Clinton, Gore and many others prior to Bush becoming president. Why wouldn't the administration have that prejudice from the outset. I would have looked hard at Iraq myself, and knowning what we knew as fact, would have pushed hard to find a 9/11 connection. Why? Because that would have persuaded the recalcitrant in the U.N. and elsewhere and improved our chances of success.

This is a distorted motivational view you present, I think.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 9, 2004 12:37 PM

Mindles -

I think you're saying roughly what I said in my comment to your Ass-u-me post, which I'll quote in case I've got you wrong:

"It's not so much that I think you have radically different ideas of what's right than I do (i.e., you love Bush's agenda). It's that, given a portfolio of risks, you think he's managed those risks properly (i.e., Bush has done a great job).

To me, this suggests that either (a) we estimate risk really differently, or (b) we value the various things at risk really differently. I suspect that it's more (b) than (a) at work, because we probably have roughly similar views on, for example, the risk that terrorism will bring down the USA (non-existent) or cause 100K+ deaths (very small but existing)."

I note that I'm less clear now, however, than I was above that we agree on the level of risks. And Will Allen (I think) pointed this out in his response to me.

The questions that remain are (a) how do we decide what the level of risk is, and (b) how do we decide what we're willing to trade to ameiliorate that risk.

As to (a), at least one response is stop trusting whoever it is who keeps f**king up the models, either by misinterpreting the data or by fooling with the data. So I hold against the Bush Admin. the fact that someone threatened to fire the HCFA's chief actuary if he gave Congress info about the cost of the drug benefit. And I hold against the Admin. the fact that there were no WMD of note in Iraq. And I hold against the Admin the fact that they built a model based on the useless notion of WMD, b/c they know or should know that nukes are different and probably all we really have to worry about. You can say that the failure of this group shouldn't kill the entire set of models they are working with. Fine, get a new modeler for your side of the aisle, but get a new modeler.

(b) strikes me as tougher, because we're really talking about what we, as individuals, believe to be most valuable. Things like "innocent until proven guilty" are at the heart of the US experiment for me. As I said before, I would trade 3000 people a year, every year, for the protection of our core civil liberties. I wouldn't do it happily, but I'd made the trade quickly.

But if you don't agree with that, I don't know how to convince you. I would only note that in the past we've (arguably) been more protective of civil rights when under much greater risk. For example, we all thought that over the long run nuclear war with the Sovs was inevitable, but we didn't think it OK'd getting rid of "innocent until proven guilty." As Mark Kleiman said, this isn't WW4 (I'd argue that if the VP isn't willing to ask Americans' to throttle back on SUV purchases b/c driving what you want is part of our freedom, it's not even a war, but a warlette), and that makes all the difference in determining what we should be willing to pay to shorten those risks.

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim on July 9, 2004 12:38 PM

P.S. Begbee:

1. You haven't been banned, nor has it been considered. I disagree with much of what you say, but I don't have a problem with the way you say it. that being said, I haven't read every comment closely - is there something I should know about? :-)

2. "Rear of the pack" in standard of living in western countries? Nonsense. Certainly not true on an income basis. On narrower measures, false on public safety, true on childhood poverty. You must be 'rolling your own' here.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 9, 2004 12:45 PM

Mindles I was thinking the ban was for poor spelling, rather than pov or content.

I disagree with your assessment of the Iraq situation. You cant take a 'precautious' action, if you havent even looked at the evidence. I have yet to read anything, anywhere, that made me think Saddam would assist terrorists. I think there is alot more substantial evidence that Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have not only promoted terrorism, but still do. Saddam was neutered by the no fly zones, and his reacceptance of UN inspectors to avoid this war. We went in preemptively, against the UNs wishes, and while I dont care about UN approval, we are a laughing stock for finding nothing while ignoring the UNs opinion. Now I do believe that Saddam would hurt us in anyway possible legally, such as valuing the Iraqi reserves in Euros, or giving asyleum to individual 'wanted' terrorists, but not there organizations. Or even paying the traditional Islamic alms to those muslim families that have had members die in jihad.

The last I read, the US was near the rear of the pack in many standard of living categories. If not for senior citizens, we would be dead last in health care. Education we are in the bottom third. Work related benefits we're dead last.

I certainly wish I was rolling my own.....legally

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 01:14 PM

I had a similarly themed attempt at discussion with a guy on Slashdot. I never could get him to answer the question of whether he would have accepted GWB ordering the deaths of several hundred Americans - those on the diverted planes, plus however many on the ground - on the basis of information no more reliable than WMD or (er, something else, can't recall) which he said were out-and-out lies. It never quite sunk in that you could never be sure.

Posted by: Devilbunny on July 9, 2004 01:33 PM

Interestingly enough, the Mukhabarat-as-al-Qaeda fantasy has already been debunked.

Fingerprints.

Posted by: praktike on July 9, 2004 01:39 PM

The passengers who disrupted the hijacking of United Flight 93 displayed more about our country and it's core beliefs in their short lifespans than any words can describe.

Inside of them lived something that many others only talk about.

I can only hope that I possess a fraction of their courage.

Posted by: John on July 9, 2004 01:49 PM

I found #2 to be backwards (or at least mixed). That reflects thinking that is 30 years or more out of date. The strongest supporter of the GOP is the small business owner. Both Big Business and Big Labor support Big Govt (see e.g. Europe). Note the strong support from many large corporations for Hillary's Healthcare. It is Dems who favor the kind of proposals that would make it difficult for small businesses to compete.

Posted by: stan on July 9, 2004 01:51 PM

I do think its pretty stupid to keep buying these poor mileage SUVs with all the misery oil is causing, both for Americans at the pump, and the people of the Persian Gulf.

Actually, the Persian Gulf accounts for less than a quarter of total US oil imports, although Saudi Arabia is typically the single largest supplier -- but just barely. Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela each provide almost as much as the Saudis.

Nicely formatted 2002 by-country table

General monthly statistics through April 2004

Posted by: anony-mouse on July 9, 2004 01:53 PM

Seems to me the principal difference between case [4] and case [6] is that in case [6] there are conscious, thinking creatures who plan, launch the plan, adjust the plan according to feedback as the plan meets reality.

A preemptive principle of precaution would sensibly apply to "people who are plotting to kill us" because their willful, premeditated actions and reactions can, to an extent, be predicted, speculated.

The precautionary principle cannot as easily be applied to GM foods, for example, because there is no will, no premeditation. Purely unforeseen consequences.

Posted by: Fûz on July 9, 2004 01:55 PM

As to Iraq, I always thought the best evidence of the dangers of the regime was the regime's own words - the constant spew of anti-American hatred and threats and bluster, the open celebrations of the September 11 attacks (frankly, as one of the people who was attacked that day, I was sold on war with Iraq from that point on). The critics of the Iraq war have tended to ignore that evidence, even though it's the filter through which all other analyses of the threat needed to be viewed.

Posted by: Crank on July 9, 2004 02:07 PM

"George - It strikes me that we're in agreement. How do your points contradict mine about 'legalistic obstacles' other than to provide an example of an obstacle we would call humane and they would call legalistic or trivial."

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I do agree with you. I wasn't trying to contradict your main point but merely making a side observation.

Posted by: George on July 9, 2004 02:17 PM

Mindles D most of those links arent related to what Im saying. For education Im not talking about dollars spent or time in school, but measurable results. I understand that I argued for an increase in taxes to raise these results, but the emphasis and the largest number of dollars in that spending would be on health care, and work benefits. I would also add that the cost of health care and higher education are going through the roof, wages are increasing at a rate that barely accounts for inflation. And dont forget, in per capita income all of those western democracies below us provide health care, work benefits, education, etc.

Anon-mouse I wasnt speaking to the amount of oil produced by the Persian Gulf, I was speaking to human misery. None of the other major oil producing nations have such a poor standard of living, though the South American nations are close. If we used less oil by simply driving cars that were better for us economically anyway, we wouldnt contribute as greatly to these peoples exploitation by their governments. You have the right to drive whatever you want, but be aware our consumption of oil really fuels hatred of the US.

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 02:18 PM
This principle doesnt apply to Iraq because this administration had already made up its mind.

Wrong even if stipulated. Even if the administration used a faulty reasoning process, that doesn't mean their conclusion isn't correct.

And not necessarily a faulty reasoning process, even if stipulated. Reaching a conclusion in advance of taking office is not at all the same thing as reaching a conclusion in advance of the evidence.

Posted by: Paul Zrimsek on July 9, 2004 02:25 PM
And dont forget, in per capita income all of those western democracies below us provide health care, work benefits, education, etc.
Those items are included in GDP per capita (the number cited), regardless of whether an individual, a company or the government pays for them. Here are national account definitions.

And your comment about inflation is the reason the 'real' economic growth statistic is critical. An economy that doesn't grow in real terms cannot support an increasing standard of living (unless the inflation measure has nothing to do with the standard of living...)

As for "real results", most any argument can be constructed from non-monetary criteria. This is one of the truly useful things about currency.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 9, 2004 02:43 PM

Damn. Got hijacked. sorry.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 9, 2004 02:48 PM

I believe in the application of the precautionary principle to the application of the precautionary principle.
Where can I get some of what Begbee is smoking?

Posted by: Walter E. Wallis, P.E. on July 9, 2004 03:14 PM

Begbee, I must take issue with your view on US education being in the bottom third as compared to other Western Democracies. You are making an "apples vs oranges" comparison which is a very common mistake. We all must understand that US public schools educate under the democratic, egalitarian idea that all high school students are, or at least should have the option to go onto college/university upon graduation. Not so elsewhere in the world. Most if not all of our fellow Western Democracies and non democracies track their students so that only those students who show academic promise are sent on the college/university track while the rest are put on the vocational track. On average, this decision is made around the sixth or seventh grades. If we were to compare test scores of only our college/university bound students with those of Germany, Japan, etc... we would see very little differences in test scores and outcomes.

Posted by: John on July 9, 2004 03:23 PM

Anon-mouse I wasnt speaking to the amount of oil produced by the Persian Gulf, I was speaking to human misery.

...by tracking it to oil production in the Persian Gulf area. Realistically, the nations of Western Europe are considerably more dependant on Persian Gulf oil than we are.

None of the other major oil producing nations have such a poor standard of living, though the South American nations are close.

Well, Canada and Mexico get some inevitable "free-pass" effect from being next door to the world's single-largest economic and military power, and OTOH, Nigeria isn't exactly a rose-basket right now (basket case, maybe).

If we used less oil by simply driving cars that were better for us economically anyway, we wouldnt contribute as greatly to these peoples exploitation by their governments.

AFAIK that's a myth. Now, I also would like to see less use of egregiously large vehicles for commuter purposes (a European-style annual engine-displacement tax would work nicely without penalizing the poor at the pump), but to the best of my knowledge most of our oil consumption goes into...powering the world's single-largest economic and military power, either through industrial use or truck shipping. Personal vehicles are a comparatively small consumer.

You have the right to drive whatever you want

A 1988 Toyota Corolla GT-S. Fuel efficiency, fun, and low insurance rates in one convenient package. At 170k miles the maintenance is not cheap, however.

but be aware our consumption of oil really fuels hatred of the US.

Nice pun, but I disagree. Hating the winner is no new phenomenon, and IMO once the obfuscating and self-congratulatory rhetoric is stripped out of the criticism, that's really what we have here. US economic success in spite of coming late to the world-scene (and a few other factors) fuel that hatred, and oil is merely a convenient proxy. I submit that reduced US oil consumption would do nothing for that hatred, unless it came as a package deal with a complete economic collapse of the US -- thereby confirming all kinds of anti-American prejudices, and giving the nations who indulge in the pathology an opportunity to rise to economic power without the inconvenience of established and efficient competition. Absent that, said hatred would merely find another avenue by which to express itself.

Posted by: anony-mouse on July 9, 2004 05:07 PM

Mindles D I dont see any gdp per capita links. I see income per capita, and I dont think this figure includes government benefits. What I meant by 'real results' is the US students ranking in standardized testing when compared to students in western Europe.

John imo the other western democracies are very similar to the US as far as access to education. We also redirect marginal high school students to vocational tech schools, the biggest difference is we advance unqualified students as social promotion, while in Europe you dont move on until you learned enough to pass that levels standardized testing.

Anony-mouse heres my take on Persian Gulf politics. The non military dictatorship mideast nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran must convince their populations that it is US oil policy that has resulted in the abject poverty many of their citizens live in, otherwise its reveloution. Hence the SA and Iranian madrasas. They use radical Islamic clerics to push the lie that its US energy policy, and not the uppermost levels of that particular nations hierarchies greed that has resulted in the poverty of most of their citizens. By consuming 25% of the worlds energy, we make their lies easier to sell. I understand that personal use vehicles are not a huge part of our overall oil consumption, but it is among our most wasteful and visible uses of energy. Im not judging anyone, I threw the SUV comments out there because one of the things that most annoys me is when people who consume energy like theres no tomorrow ask, 'Why do they hate us?'. I also accept you are likely right in the idea that everyone hates #1, I just dont think we should make it so easy. I also agree on the gas tax.

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 06:53 PM

Here we go again...


"Both Oneill and Clarke were Bush appointees there from the start"

Which Clark? The Clark who wrote the book, or the Clark who said stuff ot the media? Same guy, 180 degree difference. BTW, Clark was CLINTON's head terroist guy all through the 90's. My biggest fault with Bush there is that he didn't toally fire the guy th moment he came into office. Also, considering his ridiculously self-contradicting statements ("Terrorism was the highest thing on Clinton's agenda", "The first thing Bush did in office was QUINTUPLE the terrorism budget", "Bush didn't care about terrorism at all", just to name was painfully obvious example) and the book deal he signed, etc, you'll have to find a different source.

I admit, Oneill's position escapes me...


"Today the senate report of their investigation of the CIA was released, and again we hear of incredible pressure by the administration on the CIA to find reason to attack Iraq."

That is eithr a lie, or you have been lied to by someone else. The report said there was some sloppiness, etc, but no pressure to get a certain answer.


"You cant find mitigating circumstance when the people that errored made up their minds prior to reading the evidence."

Th "errored" part is still up for debate (we are still finding chemical weapons caches from WWII in some parts of the world, just for one example). Also, if the evidence supports them, they are still right, even if they used the wrong methods to reach their conclusion.


"Western Europe is a much more open society, theres similar divorce rates, less church attendance, and shock! horror! smut on regular TV, yet their kids run circles around ours in scholastic testing. But then European children must pass national standardized testing in order to advance."

I don't know about ALL European countriees, but in at least some of them (and several Asian ones), they always seem to do better than us because they start spliting kids out into non-collge track schools as early as late elementary school - we are testing ALL of our kids against the brightest 20-40% of theirs. And even then, "run circles around" is a prtty big exageration.

(Yeah, what John says.)

"We are near the rear of the pack in standard of living among western democracies"

No, we aren't. If you use the same criteria on both sides (immigrants included or not, etc), we are in the top 5, easy. TOP in many areas.


"There is no bad science, only the bad application of science by irresponsible people, and it doesnt happen nearly as often as the far left would have you believe."

I agree, wholeheartedly!

"I have yet to read anything, anywhere, that made me think Saddam would assist terrorists."

Thn, as I suspected, you haven't been reading my posts. Saddam was paying Palestinian terrorists CASH MONEY and giving asylum to international terrorists. That is assistance.


"I think there is alot more substantial evidence that Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have not only promoted terrorism, but still do."

Just because they do doesn't mean he didn't. Due to the legal situation (he invaded Kuwait, which was still having penalties), he was the easiest. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is very difficult for politico-religious reasons (Mecca and Medina).


"Saddam was neutered by the no fly zones, and his reacceptance of UN inspectors to avoid this war."

Only his army was neutered - that's not the part we were worried about. And the inspections were a joke - they always had Iraqi minders with them, for goodness sake! What were they going to find?


"We went in preemptively, against the UNs wishes, and while I dont care about UN approval, we are a laughing stock for finding nothing while ignoring the UNs opinion."

The UN opinion was that Hussein had WMDs. It is said flat out in the last resolution (unanimous UNSC approval). How to deal with was different, but they said he had them, too.

"wages are increasing at a rate that barely accounts for inflation"

Actually, in the last 3 years, average wage gained almost 1% on inflation. And that's during a recession!

"And dont forget, in per capita income all of those western democracies below us provide health care, work benefits, education, etc."

Ys, but the healthcare basically sucks if you have any problm other than broken limbs or common commicable diseases. Waiting lists for less common or expensive procedures are longer than the average rate of survival without said proccedure in many cases. People literally die waiting for things we do daily for the poor in this country.

And the great "work benfits" are part of the problem. In many European countries, women have a hard time gtting a job becasue empolyers won't risk her getting pregnant... not when she gets more than a YEAR paid maternity leave! One ccountry gives 2 YEARS - long enough to asily have ANOTHER child... 5 children, 10 yars full pay without work. Many of the other benfits have similar problems.

"You have the right to drive whatever you want, but be aware our consumption of oil really fuels hatred of the US."

No, it doesn't - their GOVERMENTS fuel US hatred. If the govrnments of the Middle East set up an oil coop (or whatever you want to call it) like Alaska, they would LOVE us.

"What I meant by 'real results' is the US students ranking in standardized testing when compared to students in western Europe."

Again, READ what people write. "apples and oranges".


"John imo the other western democracies are very similar to the US as far as access to education. We also redirect marginal high school students to vocational tech schools, the biggest difference is we advance unqualified students as social promotion, while in Europe you dont move on until you learned enough to pass that levels standardized testing."

Generally, purely vocational schooling isn't until after high school (in the US), and the standardized testing you are refrring to is almost exclusively HIGH SCHOOL. "apples" "oranges" Think about it.


"The non military dictatorship mideast nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran must convince their populations that it is US oil policy that has resulted in the abject poverty many of their citizens live in, otherwise its reveloution."

That's right - so what part of that is our fault again? Hre you say it's not (sort of), but verywhere else, it seems to ooze from everything you write.

Posted by: Deoxy on July 9, 2004 07:19 PM

the per capita income link IS GDP per capita. Follow it and read the description.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 9, 2004 07:47 PM

Deoxy its fact that two former Bush appointees are in agreement that Bush targetted Iraq from day 1. Are you suggesting theres a conspiracy between Oneill, Clarke, and the minor figures that have verified their account of the early days of jrs administration to lie about Iraq? Are you aware that several neocons had written of going after Iraq prior to being appointed by Bush to cabinet level positions?

CNN interviewed Rockefeller this morning and he described many different pressure techniques used by this administration to get the results they wanted from the CIA. They actually went so far as to release intelligence conclusions before ever seeing the CIAs report. And this just happens to perfectly correspond to the atmosphere described by Clarke and Oneill.

Theres still a chance they find wmd. But another guy fond of contradictatory statements, David Kaye, said he was 99% certain they wouldnt find wmd 6 months ago. Reguardless of what you think of the UN inspections, most of the world who were much more at risk from Iraq than we were accepted them, we found nothing, we look like fools.

I already addressed your different tracks for college vs noncollege students. Ever hear of vocational schools? They all start in high school. I have never read of any grammer school seperation of students based on ability anywhere but eastern Europe, and that was as much for athletics as scholarship.

Your wrong about the health coverage other countries provide. Most western democracies have a higher life expectancy than us. The waiting lists you speak of are generally for non emergency procedures. For example, most Canadians seeking treatment in the US are here for soft tissue injuries, and the reason for the waiting list is due to the number of MRI machines, rather than lack of MDs.

You really represent the complete denial of responsibility all to common among reps these days. I stated that the OPEC nations lie to fuel anti American sentiment, but if you dont think our conspicuous consumption of energy makes the job easier, your off your rocker.

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 08:26 PM

Ive read the link Mindless D, but does it accurately reflect things like health care or housing which are government regulated in western Europe, when compared to our free market? I assumed this was for all non governmental services. I have looked pretty hard for links that more accurately reflect what I have read, but most everything is from 95 or earlier.

Posted by: Begbee on July 9, 2004 08:37 PM

Begbee,

Actually our consumption of energy is not mindless. The ways in which we use the energy consumed make us the richest people on the planet.

We have used some of that energy to improve communication. To cure disease. And to produce "Seinfeld".

America delivers a lot to the world in exchange for what we buy. But it could just be me. I liked the place when Clinton ran it. I liked it when Bush ran it. I will probably still like it even if Kerry is running it.

I wonder if the decision to attack Sicily instead of Italy directly was criticized as much as our Iraqi adventure.

Posted by: M. Simon on July 10, 2004 03:17 AM

and the reason for the waiting list is due to the number of MRI machines, rather than lack of MDs.

Bingo -- and what, again, produces a shortage of MRI machines? Hint: it begins with a 'C-' and ends with a "-entrally controlled health care system." Having an adequate supply of doctoral skill is only a marginal improvement if they lack necessary tools.

Ah, yes, regarding your other response -- fair enough, but as I argued, changing the value of factor "oil" in the hatred equation does nothing for the hatred. I think your argument is flawed in that respect; alter the status of one proxy and another will be found. Treat the symptoms around the mulberry bush, or medicate the disease?

Posted by: anony-mouse on July 10, 2004 04:02 AM

"Ys, but the healthcare basically sucks if you have any problm other than broken limbs or common commicable diseases. Waiting lists for less common or expensive procedures are longer than the average rate of survival without said proccedure in many cases. People literally die waiting for things we do daily for the poor in this country."

Sorry to spoil the party but as an Englishman may I just say that these comments on European healthcare are total rubbish. The British National Health service is far from perfect but the claim that the poor in the US receive better treatment is just fantasy.
I recently watched a programme about a man who had his leg amputated. This was carried out at a US hospital funded by charitable status. He left the hospital on crutches and will not get a prosthetic leg until he has raised the money to buy one!
As far as the rest of Europe is concerned there are NO waiting lists in Germany or France and even countries like Greece now have superb health systems. Anyway, if true, your assumption that people are dying faster than they can be treated means we will solve our waiting list problem eventually by sheer attrition.
By the way, is a 'commicable' disease one where you can't stop laughing at ill informed comments?

Posted by: wally on July 10, 2004 06:23 AM

Wally - you get your information about our health system from "watching a program on TV?". So you get your misinformation from the same place we do.

Understand there are quite a few federal and state programs for prosthetics. Here's Medicaid availability, Medicaid being our federal program for lower income patients. I'm not sure that case is representative. What you'll notice is that the application of Medicaid varies by state and the rules are hideously complicated (as most government programs are). Usually the headline stories of denial of care have to do with the inability of patients, and sometimes providers, to deal with all the red tape. My brother runs the residency program at a V.A. hospital and he has put together a series of flowsharts and flashcards to help the doctors figure out the Medicare and Medicaid rules. If you don't follow them, even out of ignorance, the hospital is accused of reimbursement fraud.

There is certainly material that suggests substantial waiting lists in the U.K. for NHS specialist treatment.

Posted by: "Mindles H. Dreck" on July 10, 2004 09:00 AM

I never called our energy consumption mindless. I never suggested that any US Co limited their energy consumption for any reason. I did suggest that Americans would be more thoughtful about needless energy consumption. It leaves us vulnerable to criticism, and it makes us much easier to demonize. As Anony-mouse says, they may well find another reason to hate us, maybe not, but I find it funny that so many consider the idea of voluntarily cutting energy waste so distasteful.

Mindles D some things to keep in mind about the link. It has a political objective, Im not suggesting that alone makes it inaccurate, but those that doubt the veracity of Moores film because of political slant should realize that unlike Moores movie this piece wasn't facts checked by three different Co, and it also has a political agenda. The MD that comments on waiting lists is speaking to surgery, and surgery waiting lists exist in the US as well. Mindles D are you suggesting that underbilling is as common as overbilling Medicare/cade fraud? I also noticed that piece was credited to a MD practicing in the US, do you know anything of his credentials?

Posted by: Begbee on July 10, 2004 12:15 PM

Demonization of the US is strongest among Islamic fanatics. Do you think energy consumption is ever mentioned by them as a reason to oppose the US? Do you think fanatics from the Middle East want the world to use less oil?

Posted by: maor on July 12, 2004 04:56 AM

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