Asymmetrical Information: Forged?

October 14, 2005

From the desk of Jane Galt:

Forged?

Juan Cole says the Zawahiri letter is probably a forgery. It struck me as a little tooo good, if you know what I mean, but that means approximately nothing, since I am not in the habit of reading letters written by fundamentalist muslims. Mr Cole, however, is, and his criticisms seem (to my completely ignorant eyes) pretty valid.

Posted by Jane Galt at October 14, 2005 01:38 PM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links

Comments

On the other hand, Cole is known to have a slight agenda (ahem).

Posted by: Steven Den Beste on October 14, 2005 02:45 PM

Yeah, Steven... I was going to say.

But then I didn't want to cast doubt on someone with such reknowned expertise on the middle east, not to mention time travel.

Posted by: Dan on October 14, 2005 03:22 PM

"Agenda" doesn't even cover it. I'd have deferred to his expertise two years ago or so, but he's shot his own credibility so full of holes through conspiracy-mongering over the past couple of years that I'm going to have to see a second opinion. He gives prima facie evidence to question it, but Cole's word on anything is nolonger enough for me.

Posted by: Matt McIntosh on October 14, 2005 06:04 PM

Cole's an idiot as anyone who bothers to check his previous rants would know. Hell even I caught Joseph Mailander and Mr. Cole in a silly mistake and I'm no self proclaimed "Middle East expert" by any stretch of the imagination.

At best he'll be right the same way a broken watch tells correct time twice a day. Is this one of those times? I doubt it but then I don't really care to spend much effort on a post that ends with paranoid gut feelings about "...black psy-ops operation of the US."

What does amaze me is anyone takes this guy seriously who obviously is only one step above a black helicopter conspiracy nut. Why does this guy get any mention outside the MSM?

Posted by: Tom Villars on October 14, 2005 06:38 PM

Cole is a gaseous windbag. You should read the takedown over at Iraqi Bloggers Central. It's hilarious.

http://jarrarsupariver.blogspot.com/2005/10/juan-ferret-face-cole-questions.html

Cole has no clue about the Middle East, despite his claims to be an expert. The Fadil brothers have embarrassed Cole so many times it's almost not sport any more (but it IS a pleasure to watch.)

Posted by: antimedia on October 14, 2005 07:27 PM

Juan Cole can kiss my tight size 32 jean wearing ass.

Posted by: martin on October 14, 2005 09:07 PM

I'm glad I'm not the only one who, upon first reading this, couldn't believe anyone takes Juan Cole seriously any more. I had never heard of Cole until Steven Vincent's wife flipped out on him, and the next thing I heard, he was butchering the Arabic language.

Posted by: Adam on October 14, 2005 09:48 PM

The fact that there are two, unidentifiable, moments each day when a broken watch happens to be momentarily correct does not make it any less worthless.

Posted by: triticale on October 14, 2005 09:51 PM

Okay, it's officially not just Cole. I've got my second opinion, I'm satisfied enough that there's something fishy here.

Posted by: Matt McIntosh on October 14, 2005 09:53 PM

Ooops, sorry for the broken link. Here.

Posted by: Matt McIntosh on October 14, 2005 09:54 PM

Walid Phares thinks it's real:

Thawahiri�s last letter: Al Qaeda and Iraq; an old project...

Posted by: Robert Schwartz on October 14, 2005 10:15 PM

Matt McIntosh,
A denial from Al Qaeda signifies little. They too have an agenda in this. Ask yourself how likely it is that they would ever willingly admit a defeat or a mistake if they could help it. That being the case, why should we expect them to confirm an intercepted communication of theirs if they can avoid confession? o_O

- S.P.M.

Posted by: Small Pink Mouse on October 15, 2005 12:27 AM

Read the fine print, SPM: "Ken Katzman, a terrorism expert with the Congressional Research Service -- the in-house think-tank of the U.S. Congress -- said the letter contained elements that raised doubts about its authenticity."

Posted by: Matt McIntosh on October 15, 2005 01:32 AM

Are Jane Galt readers so desperate to believe Bush that they do what Janet Parshall did in a recent debate on CSpan with Randi Rhodes, stick her fingers in her ears and say "I can't hear you"?

How many lies must Bush and his cronies get caught in, how many lives must get lost, how much damage much the U.S. and the world endure before conservatives realize that their ideas about governing and society are wrong?

How much money will the uber-rich be able to steal from us before conservatives realize that they're getting soaked, too, and not accepted into the 1% Club?

We're going backwards, doing worse, and the fault lies with anyone who votes republican.

Posted by: Simon on October 15, 2005 06:12 AM

Simon: Thank you for your insight. Because Bush is screwing Americans of modest means to give to the rich, the letter is a forgery.

It's all so clear to me now!

Posted by: Henry Reardon on October 15, 2005 07:56 AM

Don't forget before the January vote with the Al Zarqawi 'letter' slamming democracy came out?

Just interesting, don't you think?

http://www.schmuckraker.com

Posted by: Bryan on October 15, 2005 10:54 AM

It's certainly possible that the letter is psy-ops, but it seems that lots of people in the Middle East doubt Dr. Cole's Arabic expertise. I'm not an expert either, but that post and the comments contain examples of the usage he disputes as coming from sites devoted to Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, Zarqawi's former teacher, as well as assurances from various Arabic speakers that, yes, those phrases could be used.

Posted by: John Thacker on October 15, 2005 02:25 PM

Matt,
Whoops, my mistake! *^_^*

That said, while Mr. Katzman does have a higher standing than Cole or Al Qaeda I still disagree with his reasoning as the Reuters article had it:

'"The purported letter has Zawahri admitting to certain things that it's not realistic for him to admit, because he would know there's a potential this letter might be intercepted," Katzman said.

He said they included a request for money from Zarqawi, an admission that Pakistan's army is hunting for al Qaeda and how the arrest of a top operative affected the network.'

Let's go through this one by one:

1. "Request for money". - If your group is getting its worthless butt kicked then going to the Big Boss to ask for more resources makes perfect sense whether or not you think your letter will be intercepted. It makes perfect sense even if things are going well since you still can never have too much resources. If your enemy intercepts your letter they learn what? That you wanted more money? They probably can already guess that anyway and if you don't ask for it then the person who can give it to you won't know that he should.

2. "...an admission that Pakistan's army is hunting for al Qaeda" - Wow, no! Really? Like an army on the prowl is an inconspicuous thing in the first place? We've got the satellites and the Pakistanis are *our* allies so this isn't exactly news to us even if the letter does get intercepted, is it? OTOH, it isn't exactly the sort of thing their Big Boss necessarily knows and it may come under the things he *needs* to know (especially if the letter writer wants to get him to fork over the money requested!) so yeah it makes sense that this would go into the letter.

3. "...and how the arrest of a top operative affected the network." HA! Talk about things the Big Boss would need to know! And once again this is the sort of thing that our side would know already so he doesn't lose a darn thing by it even if it gets intercepted because he has to assume the worst case possibility that we know it already. He might not spell out every little detail but his Big Boss had better know how his screwups affected the other sectors if he doesn't want to see things crash and burn even worse than they already are doing for him. ^_^
So no, I have no trouble seeing these as the sort of things the Head Field Goon for Al Qaida might write. As for him being afraid to include things for the possibility that they might be intercepted...Sooner or later sensitive information has to flow through the ranks of an organization in order for it to act intelligently or else that organization is doomed. There is even an instance in WWI of 2 Russian armies comunicating with one another in clear knowing that the Germans were listening because the need for communications within an organization is just that great (For the record the Russians got pasted at Tannebaum (sp?) because of this but if they hadn't coordinated the results might have been even worse (Although it's hard to imagine how! ^o^)).

If the Al Qaida twits are so afraid of our interceptions that they dare not say anything to one another then they will have no choice but to disband. Since they still exist we may safely assume that they are not as fearful as Mr. Katzman would have it.
- S.P.M.

Posted by: Small Pink Mouse on October 16, 2005 12:38 AM

For almost daily and excellent debunking of Cole check out this blog:http://beirut2bayside.blogspot.com/

Posted by: JoseyWales on October 16, 2005 10:13 AM

What astonishes me is that almost no one -- Cole included -- has noticed that the letter closes with a salutation asking the recipient to give the sender's regards to al-Zarqawi. The letter cannot be intended for Zarqawi.

What does this tell us about our intelligence services and their analysts?

As for Cole, he's already backtracked on one of his objections to the letter's authenticity, while another is based upon it being intended for Zarqawi(!). I'm no Arabist, but I'm not impressed with his ability to read and interpret.

More posted at Cronaca here

Posted by: David Nishimura on October 16, 2005 11:12 PM

Only those with whom we disagree have an "agenda". We do not have an "agenda" we only speek the "truth".

Posted by: Rick DeMent on October 17, 2005 08:46 AM

It may certainly be true that the letter is bogus. But the fact that Cole says it is bogus does not make it more likely that it is bogus.

Posted by: Crank on October 17, 2005 10:54 AM

Islamic fundamentalists use violence, terror, and the media to whatever terrible objectives they have at the moment..

i can only hope that our gov't and anyone who stands opposed to them are willing to use any means neccessary to block thier agenda. This is especially true if we can use their allies in the media against them

If the letter is fake and it helps the US somehow in creating problems for the terrorists, how is that a bad thing?

I wonder if everything the allies put out during WWII was true..

Posted by: Kenm on October 17, 2005 11:31 AM

Speaking from personal experience there, Rick?

Posted by: anony-mouse on October 17, 2005 02:19 PM

It has to be legit - they found it right next to the Downing letter and the ANG letter.

Posted by: Walter E. Wallis on October 17, 2005 06:22 PM

It has to be legit - they found it right next to the Downing letter and the ANG letter.

Fake, but accurate.

Posted by: h0mi on October 17, 2005 09:10 PM

Ya v serpe i neebet. 9AB - checkit!
Amature adult webcams Live she male webcams Teenage girl webcams Free webcam porn John frusciante live video, Live sex chats and Free webcam porn at http://webcams.audio-stream.net/Free-webcam-porn/index.html ...
Free adult webcam links Couples video cams sex Www xxx cam Live mature adult webcams Live views cameras webcams, Free streaming girl webcams and Live mature adult webcams at http://webcams.audio-stream.net/Live-mature-adult-webcams/index.html ...
Private voyeur cams Free trial xxx webcam Rilee adult cam Live real sex cams Free sexcams, Webcam live and Live real sex cams at http://webcams.audio-stream.net/Live-real-sex-cams/index.html ...
Live friends web cams Webcam girl canada Horny girls on webcams Pictures free live webcams Video online live comedy, Webcams live and Pictures free live webcams at http://webcams.audio-stream.net/Pictures-free-live-webcams/index.html ...
Free mature webcams Free adult home cams Free video web cams Xxx toilet cams Adult live cams webcams, Jamaica live web cams and Xxx toilet cams at http://webcams.audio-stream.net/Xxx-toilet-cams/index.html ...

Posted by: Pictures free live webcams on October 18, 2005 08:12 AM

Abu Aardvark's take is interesting:

"Here's my current working theory: the letter was an authentic communication within al-Qaeda that was never intended to be a private letter to Zarqawi. A key bit for me is that some people have noted a form of this letter circulating in jihadi forums over the summer."

Posted by: Gertrude on October 18, 2005 11:10 AM

FAKE, but TRUE !!!

Posted by: a wilson on October 18, 2005 03:27 PM

" - checkit!
Amature adult webcams Live she male webcams"

Well, when you explain it that way, I suppose one COULD posit that there's a certain irreducible ... wait, WHAT?

Posted by: Father Mocker on October 18, 2005 03:28 PM

Posted by: LvVxMdCZrE on October 21, 2005 03:44 PM

Comments are Closed.