Asymmetrical Information

From the desk of Jane Galt:

What if they gave a summit and nobody came

Soft power has limits:

When President George W. Bush launched his "greater Middle East initiative" for Arab democracy a couple of years ago, many Europeans complained he was ignoring what the European Union had achieved over the past 10 years with its neighbours around the southern and eastern rim of the Mediterranean. But, as the EU takes stock at a 35-nation summit today of this decade-long partnership, one has to ask, what achievement?

For the so-called Barcelona process has shown the limits of the soft (political) power that Europe likes to vaunt and contrast with US hard (military) power. The EU gives �1bn a year in aid, and more in loans, to its Mediterranean partners, but has stimulated little political reform in return.

One reason is that EU influence over its neighbours depends largely on whether the latter stand any chance of joining the EU. Of the 12 original Barcelona partners, Cyprus and Malta are inside the EU and Turkey is in the waiting room, but the rest have zero chance of joining. Another reason is that events have changed the political agenda. The EU and its Mediterranean partners have let human rights take second place to measures to counter terrorism and illegal immigration, as shown by the recent ugly scenes of sub-Saharan African migrants being thrown first out of Spanish enclaves in Morocco and then out of Morocco itself.

The New York Times adds:

Many of the North African and Middle Eastern leaders who had agreed to come to the meeting announced last week that they could not attend. Their absence weakens European claims that their approach to the Muslim world - based on economic development, dialogue, strengthening the rule of law, and other forms of soft power - has greater credibility with the region's leaders than what they see as the Bush administration's more aggressive approach.

The problem, as I see it, is that Europe has very limited "soft" tools in its box. It cannot offer significant military assistance, and while it does dispense aid around the region, the US's aid to Israel and Egypt dwarf the EU's efforts. Moreover, trade, one of its most potent tools, is being taken away from its diplomats by a population frightened of competing. And any goodwill it might have generated with its donations is, one presumes, being rapidly eroded on the famed Arab street by the European population's obvious hostility to muslim immigrants.

So the US, where anti-muslim bias seems to be much less prevalent (due in part, no doubt, to the fact that we have a lot fewer muslim immigrants--but I don't see Mexicans rotting for generations in ghettoes without jobs or hope), probably has some weapons in the soft toolkit that we could be deploying and aren't. But there are real limits to how far one can get with soft power.

Posted by Jane Galt at November 28, 2005 08:26 AM | TrackBack | Technorati inbound links